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Using value-added hierarchical linear models and cohort tracking of teachers entering from 2010–2023, it evaluates impacts on student learning and teacher effectiveness. Results show consistently lower student performance with uncertified teachers, reduced learning time impacts in high school subjects, and substantially lower retention, highlighting the importance of teacher certification.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/education-research-center-policy-brief-beyond-the-tipping-point-study/587276/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/education-research-center-policy-brief-beyond-the-tipping-point-study/587276.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"วิน","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-11-13","2026-10-15",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":44},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What problem does the policy brief address in Texas teacher preparation?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"It addresses the rapid growth of uncertified K-12 teachers in Texas, accelerated after the COVID-19 pandemic, and the urgency to understand how this shift affects students.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"How does uncertified teaching relate to student performance and learning?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"Student learning outcomes are significantly lower across nearly every subject and grade level in non-charter districts when teachers are uncertified versus certified, with especially large estimated gaps in high school.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"What does the brief find about teacher retention for uncertified versus certified teachers?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"Uncertified teachers are far less likely to stay in teaching: more than 30% leave after the first year, and only around 40% remain by the five-year mark, compared with about 77% retention for university-certified teachers.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},587276,1792161504,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":44,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":29,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":143,"read_time":144,"preview_page_count":4},2336475104736,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/22000c4c5e0e5b17e70?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1786591360781797222","Education Research Center POLICY BRIEF  \nBeyond the Tipping Point Study  \nby Michael Marder  \nNovember 2025  \nExecutive Summary  \nThe teacher preparation landscape in Texas has been rapidly changing, with far-reaching implications for Texas students. The COVID-19 pandemic caused an increase in the rate of retirement and resignation ofK-12 teachers and administrators. This caused a dramatic rise in the fraction ofK-12 teachers with no certificate, which was permitted because most districts had declared themselves Districts of Innovation. In this project I tracked the rise ofuncertified teachers and found the impact of this phenomenon on student performance and teacher effectiveness.  \nDuring the course of this study, the number ofuncertified teachers began to soar. In 2023-24 and 2024-25 more than half of Texas’ new teachers entered without certification or preparation. Uncertified teachers were most common in subject areas with large teacher shortages such as secondary STEM, and in rural areas. This situation created a sense of urgency around finding the potential effects of such a large shift in teacher preparation on Texas students.  \nStudent Performance and Teacher Effectiveness  \nI examined the consequences for student learning of having an uncertified teacher as compared with a certified teacher in a non-charter district. Student learning was significantly lower in almost every subject and at every grade level. The largest effects were in high school, where it was estimated that students with uncertified teachers in social studies and math would gain four months less learning in a year than those with certified teachers, and in high school English the difference was estimated to be six months of learning.  \nTeacher Retention  \nUncertified teachers were much less likely to stay in teaching than certified teachers. More than 30% of them left just after the first year, while for university-certified teachers the corresponding figure was 5% . By the five-year mark only around 40% ofuncertified teachers were left.  \nSummary  \nTeacher certification matters. When teachers enter the classroom without preparation, most will leave before they have completed five years and their students learn less than if they had the chance to practice their craft before assuming full responsibility of classrooms.  \nWhat Was Studied  \nTexas is different from all other states in how it prepares teachers. Starting in 2002, Texas allowed for-profit entities to prepare teachers, and by 2015 for-profit companies, mainly preparing teachers online, were the dominant source of new teachers (Figure 1) . In this year Texas allowed school districts to declare themselves Districts of Innovation and opt out of state regulations. This included the possibility of opting out of the requirement that teachers be certified. Hiring ofuncertified teachers increased slowly until in 2021-22 in the wake of the pandemic it exploded, and by 2022- 2023 more than half the new teachers in Texas were uncertified. This project made it possible to monitor this  \ndevelopment as it unfolded, obtain information on the types of schools and subject areas where uncertified teachers were dominating, and to assess consequences for students.  \nFigure 1: A graphical history of teacher pathways in Texas  \nPurpose of the Study and Research Questions  \nHow Data Were Analyzed  \nStudent Performance and Teacher Effectiveness  \nI used value-added models to compare certified and uncertified teachers to examine student learning outcomes. The sample size was between 6,000 and 30,000 teachers per grade level and subject area over the period from 2012 to  \n2019. I focused on the ways policies related to teacher preparation impact student achievement. The models are hierarchical linear models, and I employed lmer in R. For subjects where a given student was tested in two consecutive years, I modeled the student score in the second year as a cubic polynomial in the student’s score the preceding year. T","cbCaip6kKM1S3YNZ","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaip6kKM1S3YNZ","pdf",818214,"English","# Executive Summary\n## Student Performance and Teacher Effectiveness\n## Teacher Retention\n## Summary\n## What Was Studied\n## Purpose of the Study and Research Questions\n## How Data Were Analyzed\n## What Was Discovered","[{\"question\":\"What problem does the policy brief address in Texas teacher preparation?\",\"answer\":\"It addresses the rapid growth of uncertified K-12 teachers in Texas, accelerated after the COVID-19 pandemic, and the urgency to understand how this shift affects students.\"},{\"question\":\"How does uncertified teaching relate to student performance and learning?\",\"answer\":\"Student learning outcomes are significantly lower across nearly every subject and grade level in non-charter districts when teachers are uncertified versus certified, with especially large estimated gaps in high school.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the brief find about teacher retention for uncertified versus certified teachers?\",\"answer\":\"Uncertified teachers are far less likely to stay in teaching: more than 30% leave after the first year, and only around 40% remain by the five-year mark, compared with about 77% retention for university-certified teachers.\"}]","Education Research Center Policy Brief - Beyond the Tipping Point Study | PDF",1792061322,15]