[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-321621-105":59,"doc-detail-321621-en":130},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":123,"head_meta":125,"extra_data":127,"updated_unix":129},105,"en","economic-policy-uncertainty-and-small-business-expansion","Economic Policy Uncertainty and Small Business Expansion","","Economic Policy Uncertainty and Small Business Expansion examines whether policy uncertainty discourages small business owners from hiring and making capital expenditures. Using National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey data from January 1986 through July 2011, the analysis studies statistical associations with a policy-uncertainty index developed by Baker, Bloom, and Davis. The findings indicate uncertainty adversely affects expansion plans, slowing hiring and investment and potentially hindering recovery.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/economic-policy-uncertainty-and-small-business-expansion/321621/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/economic-policy-uncertainty-and-small-business-expansion/321621.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Anda","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-17","2026-09-21",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":81},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What relationship does the paper test between policy uncertainty and small business expansion?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"The paper examines whether policy uncertainty is negatively associated with small business owners’ plans to hire and make capital expenditures.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"How are “hiring plans” measured in the NFIB data?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"Hiring plans are the net percentage of small business owners indicating they plan to hire over the upcoming three months.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"How is the policy uncertainty measure constructed?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"The measure combines components reflecting newspaper coverage of policy-related uncertainty, scheduled expirations of federal tax code provisions, and disagreement among economic forecasters, each with specified 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behave in ways that are hindering the recovery?That question is at thecenter of an intense public debate.Though reasonable arguments have been presented on both sides,there is not muchempirical evidence to draw on.To contribute some to the discussion,we investigated the statistical association betweendata on small business plans to hire and make capital expenditures and a measure of policy uncertainty.Our analysissuggests that uncertainty is adversely affecting small business owners'expansion plans.  \nSmall business owners have been saying for some time thatuncertainty about the future direction of federal policieshas caused them to hold back on hiring and capital invest-ment.As the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston reported inJuly,businesses have expressed “concern about current andfuture negative effects of increased uncertainty,attributablein part to failure to resolve the U.S.debt ceiling disputepromptly and the associated unclear future course of federalexpenditures and taxes.\"  \nThe media,pundits,and politicians have picked up thispoint.Some commentators now assert that currently highlevels of“policy uncertainty”are choking off the recoveryin the small business sector.Others counter that there is noevidence for this assertion.This debate is important to ourelected officials because policy uncertainty could be slowingthe recovery.If small business owners do not hire or invest,economic expansion will be slower than if they do.  \nIn this Commentary,we empirically examine the hypothesisthat“policy uncertainty”adversely impacts small busi-ness owners'expansion plans.To do this,we looked atthe statistical association between data on small businessplans to hire and make capital expenditures and a measureof \"policy uncertainty.\"The data on small business planscover January 1986 through July 2011 and were col-lected by the National Federation of Independent Business(NFIB).2 The uncertainty measures were created by ScottBaker,Nick Bloom,and Steve Davis and described in theirpaper\"Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty.\"3  \nThe economic theory behind the hypothesis is straightfor-ward.As Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernankeexplained in a 1983 paper,business owners will delay costlycapital investments and hiring decisions when the futureis uncertain.They want to avoid making choices that turn  \nout to be wrong when the future environment is revealed.Therefore,if tax and regulatory policies are likely to changesignificantly in the future,small business owners will reducetheir planned hiring and investment.In simple terms,thetheory predicts a negative correlation between policy uncer-tainty and small business expansion plans.  \nSome observers have argued that existing data from theNFIB survey already negate the policy uncertainty argu-ment.5 They say that policy uncertainty cannot accountfor smallbusiness owners'reluctance to hire and investbecause only a small fraction of them responds to a ques-tion about the primary problem that they face by indicating\"regulation\"or \"taxes.\"Moreover,the share of respondentsidentifying taxes and regulations as their primary problemis not very different now from periods when small businessowners were more willing to hire and invest.  \nHowever,the NFIB question to which these observers referasks about regulation and taxes,not policy uncertainty.Un-certainty about regulation and taxes may separately affectsmall business expansion even if regulation and taxes arenot currently a problem.Our approach brings in additionalinformation about the uncertainty itself.  \n## Measures\n\nTo quantify small business expansion plans,we obtainedtwo monthly measures collected by the NFIB in its surveyof members(who are small business owners).The first,which we call \"hiring plans,\"is the net percentage of smallbusiness owners who indicate that they plan to hire over theupcoming t","cbCaii1pluy1Vnt4","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaii1pluy1Vnt4","pdf",1398763,"English","# Measures\n## Hiring plans and capital investment plans\n## Policy uncertainty measure components and weighting","[{\"question\":\"What relationship does the paper test between policy uncertainty and small business expansion?\",\"answer\":\"The paper examines whether policy uncertainty is negatively associated with small business owners’ plans to hire and make capital expenditures.\"},{\"question\":\"How are “hiring plans” measured in the NFIB data?\",\"answer\":\"Hiring plans are the net percentage of small business owners indicating they plan to hire over the upcoming three months.\"},{\"question\":\"How is the policy uncertainty measure constructed?\",\"answer\":\"The measure combines components reflecting newspaper coverage of policy-related uncertainty, scheduled expirations of federal tax code provisions, and disagreement among economic forecasters, each with specified weights.\"}]","Economic Policy Uncertainty and Small Business Expansion | PDF",1789959829,13]