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Develops a conceptual framework, then reports stylized facts comparing private returns before and after crises in Indonesia, Pakistan, and South Africa. Applies panel regression analysis to test whether the relationship between private returns and crises is statistically significant. Concludes with implications for COVID-19 and directions for future research.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/economic-crises-and-private-rates-of-returns-to-university-education-conceptual-framework-and-covid-19-implications/600060/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/economic-crises-and-private-rates-of-returns-to-university-education-conceptual-framework-and-covid-19-implications/600060.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"nayy☆","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-29","2026-10-15",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":24},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What is the main research focus of the study?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"The study explains why the private rates of return to university education can widen during economic crises like COVID-19.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"Which countries are analyzed for stylized facts on private returns?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"Indonesia, Pakistan, and South Africa are examined before and after economic crises.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"How is the relationship between private returns and crises tested?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"Panel regression analysis is used to assess whether the relationship is statistically significant in the three countries.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},600060,1792210669,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":24,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":139,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":41},962090893153,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_9964176cb1d06d4a9deccf72a44ae3dc","Current Issues in Comparative Education (CICE), Volume 23, Issue 1, Winter 2021  \nEconomic Crises and Private Rates of Returns to University  \nEducation:  \nA Conceptual Framework, Stylized Facts from Three Middle-Income Countries, and COVID-19 Implications  \nTazeen Fasih  \nThe World Bank  \nHarry A. Patrinos  \nThe World Bank  \nM. Najeeb Shafiq  \nUniversity of Pittsburgh  \nIn this study, we develop a conceptual framework that explains the reasons behind a widening of the gaps in private rates of return to university education during an economic crisis such as COVID-19. Next, we report stylized facts on the private rates of return to university education before and after economic crises in Indonesia, Pakistan, and South Africa. We further conduct panel regression analysis to assess the statistical significance of the relationship between private returns and crises in the three countries. We conclude by speculating on COVID-19 implications and future research.  \nIntroduction  \nThe COVID-19 pandemic has created an ongoing economic crisis that is leading to loss of jobs, lower incomes, and increased poverty. Preliminary evidence suggests that the impact of the crisis is not only immediate, with low-income workers suffering more than high-income workers (Reeves & Rothwell, 2020), but learning loss for the current cohort of students will cause a long run negative impact on their earnings which will be felt over the lifetime of individuals. Some recent estimates project the future earning gap at individual level to be over $11,000 USD globally (Psacharopoulos et al., 2020) .  \nAs predicted by pioneer education economist Theodore Schultz (1975), educated workers are better able to cope with the disequilibria brought on by economic crisis because they are able to adapt to the changing needs of employers and new technologies. The studies that document this pattern use data on educational attainment and earnings of workers, and belong to a subset of the extensive literature on the private rates of return to education (Patrinos & Psacharopoulos, 2018). In Argentina, during the volatile period of 1992-2002, the earnings of educated workers were less affected by crises than the earnings of the less educated workers (Fiszbein, Giovagnoli & Patrinos, 2007) . Educated workers in Mexico enjoyed larger advantages than less educated ones during non-crisis years, and even larger advantages during crises and recessions (Psacharopoulos et al., 1996) . During the  \n© 2021, Current Issues in Comparative Education, Teachers College, Columbia University. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Current Issues in Comparative Education 23(1), 3-14.  \nFasih, Patrinos & Shafiq  \n2007-08 economic crisis in Greece, university educated graduates enjoyed better prospectsin the labor market than those with lower educational levels (Cholezas et al., 2013) . The private rates of returns to education also increased during crisis years in Venezuela (Patrinos & Sakellariou, 2006). Overall, the studies on the changes in private rates of return before, during and after a crisis suggest that the Schultz thesis holds about educated workers being more able to adapt to crisis-induced disequilibria.  \nIn this paper, we contribute to the comparative economics of education literature in several ways. First, we present a conceptual framework that explains the reasons behind a widening of the gaps in the private rates of returns to education during an economic crisis; in particular, we note the conditions necessary in order for the Schultz thesis to hold. Second, we present stylized facts on the private rates of return to university education (versus secondary education) before and after economic crises in Indonesia, Pakistan, and South Africa, three middle-income countries (as categorized by the World Bank) from different regions and varied socio-and macro-economic contexts. Third, we use panel regression analysis to examine whether the relationship between returns and crises are statistically sign","cbCaihEGa8eGcLN9","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaihEGa8eGcLN9","pdf",264459,12,"English","# Introduction\n# Conceptual Framework\n## Definitions and computation of private rate of return\n## Scenarios for changes during an economic crisis\n# Empirical approach and evidence across countries\n# Findings and COVID-19 implications","[{\"question\":\"What is the main research focus of the study?\",\"answer\":\"The study explains why the private rates of return to university education can widen during economic crises like COVID-19.\"},{\"question\":\"Which countries are analyzed for stylized facts on private returns?\",\"answer\":\"Indonesia, Pakistan, and South Africa are examined before and after economic crises.\"},{\"question\":\"How is the relationship between private returns and crises tested?\",\"answer\":\"Panel regression analysis is used to assess whether the relationship is statistically significant in the three countries.\"}]","Economic Crises and Private Rates of Returns to University Education - Conceptual Framework and COVID-19 Implications | PDF",1792089957]