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The text frames urgent practical need stemming from growing societal and environmental risks, and argues that even low-accuracy timely forecasts can still support disaster preparedness. It also motivates prediction as a path to deeper fundamental understanding over timescales up to 10^2 years, reviewing formal prediction algorithms and their tests, and explaining the field’s methodological and interdisciplinary relevance.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/earthquake-prediction-state-of-the-art-and-emerging-possibilities/657854/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/earthquake-prediction-state-of-the-art-and-emerging-possibilities/657854.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Levi","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-30","2026-10-26",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":24},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"Why is earthquake prediction considered pivotal in the text?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"It aims to reduce damage from earthquakes while also supporting fundamental understanding of lithosphere dynamics. 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Planet. Sci. 2002.30:1-33. Downloaded from arjournals.annualreviews.org)[ ](Annu. Rev. Earth. Planet. Sci. 2002.30:1-33. Downloaded from arjournals.annualreviews.org)by University of British Columbia Library on 12/19/05. For personal use only .  \nVladimir Keilis-Borok  \n[Annu. Rev. Earth. Planet. Sci. 2002.30:1-33. Downloaded from arjournals.annualreviews.org](Annu. Rev. Earth. Planet. Sci. 2002.30:1-33. Downloaded from arjournals.annualreviews.org)[ ](Annu. Rev. Earth. Planet. Sci. 2002.30:1-33. Downloaded from arjournals.annualreviews.org)by University of British Columbia Library on 12/19/05. For personal use only .  \nAnnu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 2002. 30:1–33  \nDOI: [10.1146/annurev.earth.30.100301.083856](10.1146/annurev.earth.30.100301.083856)[ ](10.1146/annurev.earth.30.100301.083856)Copyright °c 2002 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved  \nEARTHQUAKE PREDICTION:  \nState-of-the-Art and Emerging Possibilities   \nVladimir Keilis-Borok 1,2  \n1 International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Warshavskoe sh. 79, korp. 2, 113556 Moscow, Russia 2 Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics and Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095-1567;  \ne-mail: [vkb@ess.ucla.edu](vkb@ess.ucla.edu), [vkborok@mitp.ru](vkborok@mitp.ru)  \nKey Words earthquake preparedness, complexity, critical transitions, premonitory seismicity patterns  \nFOREWORD  \n1. Earthquake prediction is pivotal both for reduction of the damage from earthquakes and for fundamental understanding of lithosphere dynamics. That twofold goal, usual for prediction research, brings up the key questions considered here:(a) What predictions are already possible? (b) How can damage from earthquakes be reduced on the basis of such predictions, given their limited accuracy? (c) What fundamental knowledge has been gained in earthquake prediction research? The common underlying question is, what comes next?  \n2. This problem is of urgent practical importance because earthquakes pose a rapidly growing threat to survival and sustainable development of our civilization. This is due to the well-known interrelated developments: proliferation of radioactive waste disposals, high dams, nuclear power plants, lifelines, and other objects whose damage poses an unacceptable risk; self-destruction of megacities; destabilization of the environment; and growing socio-economic volatility of the global village. For all of these reasons, seismic risk has escalated also in numerous regions of low seismicity. Today, a single earthquake may take up to a million lives, cause material damage up to $10 12, raze a megacity, trigger a global economic depression, render a large territory uninhabitable, and destabilize the military balance in a region.  \nEarthquake prediction is necessary to undertake disaster preparedness measures, reducing the damage from the earthquakes. This requires that the accuracy of prediction be known, but, contrary to common belief, a timely prediction of low accuracy may be very useful.  \n0084-6597/02/0519-0001$14 .00 1  \n[Annu. Rev. Earth. Planet. Sci. 2002.30:1-33. Downloaded from arjournals.annualreviews.org](Annu. Rev. Earth. Planet. Sci. 2002.30:1-33. Downloaded from arjournals.annualreviews.org)[ ](Annu. Rev. Earth. Planet. Sci. 2002.30:1-33. Downloaded from arjournals.annualreviews.org)by University of British Columbia Library on 12/19/05. For personal use only .  \n3. Earthquake prediction is necessary also for fundamental understanding of the dynamics of the lithosphere, particularly in the timescales of 102 years and less. So far, this problem is in the same stage as the theory of gravity was between  \nT. Brahe and J. Kepler: the study of heuristic regularities that are necessary to develop a fundamental theory.  \n4. Here we review the resear","cbCaijW5aqSap4Oi","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijW5aqSap4Oi","pdf",1163242,"English","# Foreword\n## Purpose and urgency of earthquake prediction\n## Practical value despite limited accuracy\n## Fundamental value for lithosphere dynamics\n## Review scope: algorithms and prediction tests\n## Relevance to broader Earth sciences and critical transitions","[{\"question\":\"Why is earthquake prediction considered pivotal in the text?\",\"answer\":\"It aims to reduce damage from earthquakes while also supporting fundamental understanding of lithosphere dynamics. The discussion connects prediction to both practical preparedness and scientific insight.\"},{\"question\":\"How can prediction be useful even when accuracy is limited?\",\"answer\":\"The text argues that a timely prediction of low accuracy may still help guide disaster preparedness measures. This makes forecasting valuable despite imperfect performance.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the review cover regarding prediction methods?\",\"answer\":\"It reviews research extending to formally defined prediction algorithms and their tests by advance prediction. The approach integrates theoretical modeling with analysis of observations.\"}]","Earthquake Prediction - State-of-the-Art and Emerging Possibilities | PDF",1792992047,101]