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Even under aggressive testing assumptions, existing fleets would need decades or more, making pre-release demonstration impractical. It argues that test-driving alone cannot provide sufficient evidence, so developers and third-party testers must pursue innovative safety demonstration methods while recognizing persistent uncertainty. The document also emphasizes adaptive regulations that evolve alongside rapidly changing technology to manage risks while enabling benefits.",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/driving-to-safety-how-many-miles-of-driving-would-it-take-to-demonstrate-autonomous-vehicle-reliability/296364/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/driving-to-safety-how-many-miles-of-driving-would-it-take-to-demonstrate-autonomous-vehicle-reliability/296364.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Ava Thompson","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-11-04","2026-09-18",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",17,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"需要行驶多少里程才能证明自动驾驶可靠性方面的安全性？","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"文中指出，要在致死与致伤层面证明可靠性，自动驾驶车辆可能需要行驶数亿英里，甚至有时需要行驶数十亿到数百亿英里。","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"为什么仅靠路测无法在发布给消费者前充分证明自动驾驶安全？",{"text":118,"@type":114},"即使在更激进的测试假设下，现有车队也可能需要几十到上百年才能完成所需里程，这使得在上路前展示其性能几乎不现实；因此路测证据不足以支撑安全性证明。",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"除了路测，文中认为还需要做什么？",{"text":122,"@type":114},"需要开发新的、创新的安全与可靠性展示方法；同时可能也无法对自动驾驶安全性建立完全确定的结论，仍会存在不确定性。","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},296364,1789731680,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":140,"language":141,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":142,"faqs":143,"seo_title":144,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":130,"read_time":145,"preview_page_count":4},1649267921044,"https://us-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1800007509477c92dfb?_k=1786009248482753345","Driving to Safety   \nHow Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?  \nNidhi Kalra, Susan M. Paddock  \nKey findings   \n• Autonomous vehicles would have to be driven hundreds of millions of miles and sometimes hundreds of billions of miles to demonstrate their reliability in terms of fatalities and injuries.  \n• Under even aggressive testing assumptions, existing fleets would take tens and sometimes hundreds of years to drive these miles—an impossible proposition if the aim is to demonstrate their performance prior to releasing them on the roads for consumer use.  \n• Therefore, at least for fatalities and injuries, test-driving alone cannot provide sufficient evidence for demonstrating autonomous vehicle safety.  \n• Developers of this technology and third-party testers will need to develop innovative methods of demonstrating safety and reliability.  \n• Even with these methods, it may not be possible to establish with certainty the safety of autonomous vehicles. Uncertainty will persist.  \n• In parallel to creating new testing methods, it is imperative to develop adaptive regulations that are designed from the outset to evolve with the technology so that society can better harness the benefits and manage the risks of these rapidly evolving and potentially transformative technologies.  \nI  \nn the United States, roughly 32,000 people are killed and more than two million injured in crashes every year (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2015). U.S. motor vehicle  \ncrashes as a whole can pose economic and social costs of more than $800 billion in a single year (Blincoe et al., 2015). And, more than 90 percent of crashes are caused by human errors (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2015)—such as driving too fast and misjudging other drivers’ behaviors, as well as alcohol impairment, distraction, and fatigue.  \nAutonomous vehicles have the potential to significantly mitigate this public health crisis by eliminating many of the mistakes that human drivers routinely make (Anderson et al., 2014; Fagnant and Kockelman, 2015). To begin with, autonomous vehicles are never drunk, distracted, or tired; these factors are involved in 41 percent, 10 percent, and 2.5 percent of all fatal crashes, respectively (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2011; Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2014b; U.S. Department of Transportation, 2015).1 Their performance may also be better than human drivers because of better perception (e.g., no blind spots), better decisionmaking (e.g., more-accurate planning of complex driving maneuvers like parallel parking), and better execution (e.g., faster and more-precise control of steering, brakes, and acceleration).  \nHowever, autonomous vehicles might not eliminate all crashes. For instance, inclement weather and complex driving environments pose challenges for autonomous vehicles, as well as for human drivers, and autonomous vehicles might perform worse than human drivers in some cases (Gomes, 2014). Thereis also the potential for autonomous vehicles to pose new and  \n1 This does not mean that 53.5 percent of all fatal crashes are caused by these factors because a crash may involve, but not be strictly caused by, one of these factors, and because more than one of these factors maybe involved in a single crash.  \n2  \nserious crash risks, e.g., crashes resulting from cyberattacks (Anderson et al., 2014). Clearly, autonomous vehicles present both enormous potential benefits and enormous potential risks. Given the high stakes, policymakers, the transportation industry, and the public are grappling with a critical concern:  \nHow safe should autonomous vehicles be before they are allowed on the road for consumer use? For the answer to be meaningful, however, one must also be able to address a second concern: How safe are autonomous vehicles?  \nPerhaps the most logical way to assess safety is to test-drive autonomous vehicles in real traffic and observe thei","cbCailFRGZn2xuwN","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCailFRGZn2xuwN","pdf",280361,15,"English","# Key findings\n## Limits of test-driving for safety evidence\n## Real-world crash context and human baseline\n## Autonomous benefits and remaining risks\n## Need for new methods and adaptive regulations","[{\"question\":\"需要行驶多少里程才能证明自动驾驶可靠性方面的安全性？\",\"answer\":\"文中指出，要在致死与致伤层面证明可靠性，自动驾驶车辆可能需要行驶数亿英里，甚至有时需要行驶数十亿到数百亿英里。\"},{\"question\":\"为什么仅靠路测无法在发布给消费者前充分证明自动驾驶安全？\",\"answer\":\"即使在更激进的测试假设下，现有车队也可能需要几十到上百年才能完成所需里程，这使得在上路前展示其性能几乎不现实；因此路测证据不足以支撑安全性证明。\"},{\"question\":\"除了路测，文中认为还需要做什么？\",\"answer\":\"需要开发新的、创新的安全与可靠性展示方法；同时可能也无法对自动驾驶安全性建立完全确定的结论，仍会存在不确定性。\"}]","Driving to Safety - How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability? | PDF",38]