[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111597-en":3,"doc-seo-111597-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111597,687197207639,"Asher","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Dominica - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Key Findings","Dominica’s debt is assessed as sustainable, yet the country faces an overall high risk of debt distress driven by elevated public and external debt vulnerabilities. External debt distress risk is reduced relative to the 2024 assessment, shifting from high to moderate. COVID-19 intensified preexisting challenges after natural-disaster impacts in 2015 and 2017. While public debt has fallen from a 2020 peak, current policies do not reach the 60% GDP regional target by 2035, requiring fiscal consolidation, dedicated risk-fund savings, tourism and energy reforms, and careful use of CBI inflows.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez (IDA) , and Fabian Valencia and Tokhir Mirzoev (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staffs of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| DOMINICA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS2 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nDominica’s debt is sustainable, but the country remains at overall high risk of debt distress with elevated levels of public and external debt. The risk of external debt distress, however, has been lowered relative to the 2024 assessment from high to moderate. The COVID-19 pandemic compounded preexisting debt sustainability challenges, as the economy was still recovering from back-to-back natural disasters (NDs) in 2015 and 2017. Public debt peaked at 112.5 percent of GDP in 2020, declining to 99.8 percent of GDP in FY2023/24 . While the baseline assumes public debt to continue to fall over the medium and long run, current policies are insufficient to meet the regional debt target (60 percent of GDP) by 2035, and the present value of the public debt-to-GDP ratio remains above the benchmark for a protracted period, signaling persistent risks. Implementation of fiscal consolidation consistent with the national fiscal rule and savings under dedicated risk management funds—Vulnerability Risk and Resilience Fund (VRF) and Debt Repayment Fund (DRF)—is needed to put public and external debt on a firm sustainable path, reducing vulnerabilities. This should be combined by reforms to expand tourism capacity and reduce energy imports, including by ensuring proper earmarking of Citizenship-by-investment (CBI) inflows. Main downside risks to the debt sustainability outlook  \n1 The last published DSA for Dominica can be accessed here. This DSA follows the Guidance Note of the Join Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries  , February 2018.  \n2 Dominica’s score in the Composite indicator (CI) is 3.01 which implies a medium debt carrying capacity. The CI is calculated based on data from the October 2024 WEO and the 2023 CPIA data.  \ninclude slower global growth and associated spillovers to tourism, further ND shocks, and weaker than anticipated revenues from the CBI program.  \n1. Public sector debt includes central government direct and guaranteed debt of both external and domestic debt. Central government direct debt accounts for about 84 percent of total public debt. Guaranteed debts are directed to State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), including borrowing under the Petrocaribe arrangement with Venezuela.3 Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG) external debt is mostly owed to multilateral creditors, while the National Bank of Dominica (NBD) and the Dominica Social Security (DSS) are the main domestic creditors. There is no borrowing by local/state governments and no borrowing by the central bank on behalf of the government. External debt is defined using a residency criterion , but there is no material difference between defining external debt on the residency or currency basis. SOE’s non-guaranteed debts, which are mostly domestic and mainly from the NBD , Agricultural and Industrial Development (AID) Bank of Dominica, and DSS, are not included in the public debt stock but they are expected to be small relative to the guaranteed stock.4 Other SOEs are not permitted to borrow externally without government guarantees. It is still expected that all SOE debts (both guaranteed and nonguaranteed) will be included in the public debt with progress on monitoring the SOEs under the Public Procurement and Disposal of Public Property Act.5 Recent measures implemented to improve coverage and timeliness of debt reporting include finalizing a new Medium-Term Debt Strategy (MTDS) and an Annual Borrowing Plan (ABP) for ","cbCaikgQk7bECKnW","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaikgQk7bECKnW","pdf",708651,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment overview\n## External debt distress and overall rating\n## Baseline assumptions and policy gaps\n# Downside risks\n## Growth and tourism spillovers\n## Natural disaster shocks\n## CBI revenue underperformance\n# Public and external debt structure\n## Debt coverage and creditor composition\n## Treatment of SOE debts and guarantees\n# Debt reporting and vulnerabilities\n## Medium-term strategy and annual plans\n## Arrears and cash-flow pressures\n# Contingent liabilities\n## Stress test calibration and PPP coverage","[{\"question\":\"What is Dominica’s overall risk of debt distress and why?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is high, reflecting elevated vulnerabilities in both public and external debt despite debt being broadly sustainable.\"},{\"question\":\"How did external debt distress risk change compared with the 2024 assessment?\",\"answer\":\"External debt distress risk was lowered from high to moderate relative to the 2024 assessment.\"},{\"question\":\"Why are current policies considered insufficient to meet the regional debt target by 2035?\",\"answer\":\"Even with assumptions that public debt continues to decline, the present value of the public debt-to-GDP ratio stays above the benchmark, implying persistent risks and a gap to reach the 60% target by 2035.\"}]",1784490852,53,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"dominica-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-key-findings","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/dominica-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-key-findings/111597/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is Dominica’s overall risk of debt distress and why?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The overall risk of debt distress is high, reflecting elevated vulnerabilities in both public and external debt despite debt being broadly sustainable.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"How did external debt distress risk change compared with the 2024 assessment?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"External debt distress risk was lowered from high to moderate relative to the 2024 assessment.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why are current policies considered insufficient to meet the regional debt target by 2035?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Even with assumptions that public debt continues to decline, the present value of the public debt-to-GDP ratio stays above the benchmark, implying persistent risks and a gap to reach the 60% target by 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