[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110226-en":3,"doc-seo-110226-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},110226,16904993612988,"Olivia Brown","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Dominica - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt distress risk assessment - summary","Dominica’s debt sustainability assessment finds debt is sustainable in principle but overall risk of debt distress remains high, driven by elevated public and external debt levels. The COVID-19 shock, global effects of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and compounded damage from natural disasters in 2015 and 2017 worsened debt dynamics, with public debt peaking at 112.5% of GDP in 2020 and easing to 106% in 2021. Medium-term projections fall short of the 60% debt target by 2035, indicating persistent vulnerability without stronger fiscal consolidation.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nRobert R. Taliercio and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Luis Cubeddu and Fabian Bornhorst (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| DOMINICA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS2 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nDominica’s debt is sustainable, but the country remains at high risk of debt distress, with elevated levels of public and external debt. The COVID-19 pandemic and global economic effects from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine compounded preexisting debt sustainability challenges, as the economy was still recovering from back-to-back natural disasters (ND) in 2015 and 2017. Public debt peaked at 112.5 percent of GDP in 2020, declining to 106 percent of GDP in 2021. While it is expected to continue falling over the medium and long run, current policies are insufficient to meet the regional debt target (60 percent of GDP) by 2035, and the present value of the public debt ratio remains above the benchmark for a protracted period, signaling persistent risks. Implementation of fiscal consolidation consistent with national fiscal rule approved in 2021 (primary balance target of 2 percent of GDP by 2026), along with a sound tourism recovery and continued Citizenship-by-investment (CBI) inflows, would put public and external debt on a firm sustainable path, reducing vulnerabilities. Main downside risks to the debt sustainability outlook include slower global growth and weaker tourism-related revenue, ND, and weaker than projected revenues from the CBI program.  \n1 The last published DSA for Dominica can be accessed here. This DSA follows the Guidance Note of the Join Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries  , February 2018.  \n2 Dominica’s score in the Composite indicator (CI) is 3.04 which implies a medium debt carrying capacity. The CI is calculated based on data from the October 2022 WEO and the 2021 CPIA data.  \n1. Public sector debt includes central government direct and guaranteed debt. Dominica’s public and total external debts are high, estimated at 106.3 and 82 percent of GDP respectively, in 2021. Central government direct debt accounts for over 80 percent of total public debt. Guaranteed debts are directed to State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), including borrowing under the Petrocaribe arrangement with Venezuela.3 Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG) external debt is mostly owed to multilateral creditors, while the National Bank of Dominica (NBD) and the Dominica Social Security (DSS) are the main domestic creditors. There is no borrowing by local/state governments and no borrowing by the central bank on behalf of the government. External debt is defined using a residency criterion , but there is no material difference between using a residency or currency basis definition. SOE’s non-guaranteed debts, which are mostly domestic and mainly pertain to the NBD , the Agricultural and Industrial Development Bank of Dominica (AID) , and the DSS, are not included in the public debt stock but are expected to be small compared to their guaranteed part.4 Other SOEs are not permitted to borrow externally without government guarantees. It is expected that all SOE debts will be included in the public debt with progress on monitoring the SOEsunder the Public Procurement and Disposal of Public Property Act.5 Recent measures to improve coverage and timeliness of debt reporting include introducing an annual Debt Portfolio Review (DPR), including loan guarantees under the 2019 DPR, submitting the DPR to Parliament and publishing the DPR on the Ministry of Finance website.  \n2. The Contingent Liability stress test has been calibrated to reflect risks associated with debt not captured in the baseline. There are no P","cbCaimwdCMdk4Fo1","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaimwdCMdk4Fo1","pdf",2187216,3,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Key risk findings\n## Risk of external debt distress\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n## Granularity in the risk rating\n## Judgment and applicability\n# Debt sustainability context and drivers\n## Impact of COVID-19 and global conditions\n## Natural disasters and recovery\n## Public debt trajectory and medium-term outlook\n## Policy needs to reach the 2035 target\n# Debt coverage, composition, and data governance\n## Public sector and external debt definitions\n## Central government vs guaranteed debt and SOE role\n## Contingent liabilities and stress testing calibration\n## Debt reporting improvements and portfolio reviews","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Dominica?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is rated High, even though debt is assessed as sustainable. Elevated public and external debt levels are key drivers.\"},{\"question\":\"How did recent shocks affect Dominica’s debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"COVID-19 and global economic effects linked to the Russia–Ukraine invasion compounded earlier challenges. Back-to-back natural disasters in 2015 and 2017 also weakened the recovery path and intensified debt risks.\"},{\"question\":\"Why might Dominica’s public debt not meet the regional target by 2035?\",\"answer\":\"Current policies are insufficient to achieve the 60% of GDP public debt target by 2035. The present value of the public debt ratio remains above the benchmark for a prolonged period, signaling continuing vulnerability.\"}]","Dominica - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt distress risk assessment - summary | PDF",1784484461,48,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"dominica-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment-summary","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,51],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/dominica-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment-summary/110226/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Dominica?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The overall risk of debt distress is rated High, even though debt is assessed as sustainable. Elevated public and external debt levels are key drivers.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"How did recent shocks affect Dominica’s debt sustainability?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"COVID-19 and global economic effects linked to the Russia–Ukraine invasion compounded earlier challenges. Back-to-back natural disasters in 2015 and 2017 also weakened the recovery path and intensified debt risks.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"Why might Dominica’s public debt not meet the regional target by 2035?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Current policies are insufficient to achieve the 60% of GDP public debt target by 2035. The present value of the public debt ratio remains above the benchmark for a prolonged period, signaling continuing vulnerability.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},"General","general"]