[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-324842-105":59,"doc-detail-324842-en":130},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":123,"head_meta":125,"extra_data":127,"updated_unix":129},105,"en","does-the-yield-curve-signal-recession","Does the Yield Curve Signal Recession?","","Examines how the U.S. Treasury yield curve is used to forecast recessions, focusing on bond yields, maturity structure, and inversion signals. Explains what the yield curve predicts through term spreads and statistical relationships linking the curve’s slope to future real GDP growth. Compares growth-focused methods with recession-probability approaches and discusses why recent inversions have generated disagreement among economists and policymakers.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/does-the-yield-curve-signal-recession/324842/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/does-the-yield-curve-signal-recession/324842.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Seraphina","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-28","2026-09-21",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":44},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"What does the yield curve measure and how is it formed?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"It plots bond yield against time to maturity, using the yield to maturity concept that reflects coupon payments and the purchase price. Longer-term yields usually exceed short-term yields, creating an upward slope.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"How can yield curve inversion signal a recession?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"A yield-curve inversion occurs when short-term yields rise above longer-term yields, making the spreads negative. Historically, inversions have often preceded recessions, but recent predictions have been contested.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"What approaches are used to convert yield curve information into recession or growth forecasts?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"One approach uses the curve’s slope (term spreads) to forecast future output growth such as real GDP growth over a four-quarter horizon. Another uses statistical methods like a probit model to estimate the probability that a recession will occur.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},324842,1790317941,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":44,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":24,"language":139,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":143,"read_time":144,"preview_page_count":4},962075114101,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/e000253a75eb197efd?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1780044092746381165","by Joseph G.Haubrich  \nPreicing h fiun husalvays iacinated humans,and economic forecastingdoubles the interest by adding a chanceto turn a profit.One popular forecastingtool—the yield curve—has made head-lines lately because it may be predictinga recession.Though traditionally amongthe most accurate of economic forecast-ing instruments,the yield curve is atodds with many other current predic-tions.So what is this yield curve,inwhat sense is it predicting a recession,and why are others skeptical of thisprediction?  \n■ Bonds,Yields,and MaturityThe U.S.Treasury issues many types ofdebt,from short-term to long-term.Youcan buy Treasury bonds that mature inthree months or in thirty years,andquite a few in between.You can buythem straight from the Treasury or fromothers who are selling ones they boughtfrom the Treasury.The interest rate onthe bonds that is relevant to the yicldcurve is the \"yield to maturity\"orjust\"yield,\"which accounts for both thecoupon payments from the bonds andthe price you paid for the bond.Theyield curve simply plots the yield onthe bond against its time to maturity.Usually,the yield curve slopes up:longer-term bonds have higher yieldsthan do short-term bonds,as people feelthose longer-term bonds have more risk,requiring a higher return.Put differently,the spread (difference)between anygiven long rate and a short rate is usuallypositive.When short rates rise abovelong rates,the yield curve is said to beinverted(and the spread is negative).  \nAs figure I shows,since 1960.the yieldcurve has inverted seven times,andin six of those times a recession has  \n# Does the Yield Curve Signal Recession?\n\nfollowed in short order.The yield curvehas inverted recently,sending both the10-year minus the 2-year and the 10-year minus the 3-month spreads nega-tive.and generating disagreement aboutwhether the inversion signals a recessionor not.In the past several months,a vari-ety of Federa Reserve oflicials,marketgurus,and general prognosticators haveweighed in on the issue,a good many ofthem concluding it unlikely that the cur-rent inversion signals an incipient reces-sion.So how concerned should we beabout the inversion?To answer this,it isbest to examine what the yield curve ispredicting at this point in time and toconsider the reasons we may have fordoubting its prediction  \n## ■ What Does the YieldCurve Predict?\n\nYield curve predictions about futuregrowth come in two general flavors.Onetries to predict the rate ofgrowth that canbe expected at some point in the future.the other tries to predict the probabilityof a recession occurring.  \nThe first uses a term spread to predictfuture output,usually at a horizon of two,four,or six quartersThis approach hasan advantage in that it reveals more of theinformation that is in the yicld curve.Inversions are not the curve'sonly signal:While negative spreads precede negativegrowth,positive spreads precede positivegrowth.In general,the steeper the curve,the higher the expccted growth.Thisobservation holds true both over time andacross countries,and while most investi-gations have concentrated on the post-World War ll period,some evidence hasshown the yield curve predicts outputsince 1875in the United States and since1870 in Germany.  \nExperience has taught economic fore-casters to expect a recession when theyield on short-term Treasury securi-ties rises above the yield on longer-term securities—a situation knownas a yield-curve inversion.But someeconomists suspect the yield curvemight not be as reliable a predictorof output growth as it used to be.  \nSo the most straightforward,and.arguably,robust way to use the yieldcurve is to use the statistical relationshipbetween its slope and future economicgrowth,and then look where the currentyield curve is pointing.This approachrequires choosing first a specific spreadto use as a measure of the yield curve'sslope,and then choosing a measureof output.One of the most reliableand most ofien watched spreads is theone between 10-year U.S.Treasurybonds","cbCaifSibRgZXPu7","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaifSibRgZXPu7","pdf",1126675,"English","# Bonds, Yields, and Maturity\n# What Does the Yield Curve Predict?\n## What the yield curve predicts about growth\n## Probit-based recession probability","[{\"question\":\"What does the yield curve measure and how is it formed?\",\"answer\":\"It plots bond yield against time to maturity, using the yield to maturity concept that reflects coupon payments and the purchase price. Longer-term yields usually exceed short-term yields, creating an upward slope.\"},{\"question\":\"How can yield curve inversion signal a recession?\",\"answer\":\"A yield-curve inversion occurs when short-term yields rise above longer-term yields, making the spreads negative. Historically, inversions have often preceded recessions, but recent predictions have been contested.\"},{\"question\":\"What approaches are used to convert yield curve information into recession or growth forecasts?\",\"answer\":\"One approach uses the curve’s slope (term spreads) to forecast future output growth such as real GDP growth over a four-quarter horizon. Another uses statistical methods like a probit model to estimate the probability that a recession will occur.\"}]","Does the Yield Curve Signal Recession? | PDF",1789969014,13]