[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109864-en":3,"doc-seo-109864-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109864,962075114101,"Seraphina","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/e000253a75eb197efd?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1780044092746381165",8,"Research & Report","Djibouti - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - May 2020","Jointly prepared by World Bank and IMF staffs, this Debt Sustainability Analysis for Djibouti finds a high risk of external debt distress, with both external and public DSA mechanical ratings assessed as high. The update reflects deteriorating debt indicators tied to COVID-19, including breaches of external debt thresholds during 2020–26 and elevated debt-service-to-revenue ratios from 2022 onward. Despite risks, debt is assessed as sustainable under current terms, supported by expected IMF financing and grants, donor support, and a financing strategy that slows new borrowing while implementing fiscal and debt management reforms.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nDJIBOUTI  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis1  \nMay 2020  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Taline Koranchelian and Gavin Gray (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Djibouti: Joint Fund-Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High2 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n| Macroeconomic projections | Economic prospects for 2020 significantly weakened by COVID-19 pandemic (growth forecast at-1 percent; marked deterioration in fiscal and external positions) . Shock expected to be temporary, followed by strong recovery and rapid reduction in imbalances. |\n| Financing strategy | Similar to previous DSA, with a slowing path for new borrowing and similar terms. In addition, the crisis has created a financing need that is assumed to close with an IMF disbursement under the RCF and a grant under the CCRT, as well as donor support at favorable terms. As a result, the average grant element of new borrowing is projected to stabilize below 31 percent in the medium term. |\n| Realism tools flagged | Large unexpected increase in public debt in last 5 years. |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | High |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA | High |\n\n1 The debt coverage has not changed since the last DSA (September 2019) .  \n2 As per the last DSA update, Djibouti’s debt-carrying capacity is classified as medium. The October 2019 WEO and the 2018 CPIA result in a composite indicator of 2.21, which corresponds to a weak debt carrying capacity, while the previous debt-carrying capacity was medium. Since two consecutive weak signals are required to downgrade the debt carrying capacity, the current classification is medium.  \nThis updated Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) concludes that Djibouti is at high risk of debt distress. This reflects the fact that the present value (PV) of the external debt-to-GDP ratio breaches its threshold during 2020–26 and the debt service-to-revenue ratio increases and largely stays above its threshold from 2022 onward. However, the authorities are expected to be able to service their debt under current terms. Debt is therefore assessed as sustainable.  \nCompared to the previous DSA (September 2019), it points to a deterioration in debt indicators, reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on macroeconomic prospects. The baseline macroeconomic assumptions for this update are consistent with those underpinning the authorities’request for IMF support under the RCF and the CCRT:  \n• Djibouti is facing large negative demand and supply shocks that are projected to reduce 2020 real GDP growth to -1 percent. The shocks are expected to be temporary and followed by a strong recovery—10 percent growth in 2021, stabilizing around 6 percent by 2025.  \n• Additional health and other priority expenditures will be necessary this year to address the pandemic and its economic and social consequences, and the shocks are projected to reduce government revenue. As a result, the government fiscal deficit will increase to 4.5 percent of GDP this year before gradually declining to 1.3 percent over the medium term. Baseline projections assume a significant reduction in debt-financed infrastructure projects implemented by SOEs. For the purpose of the debt service-torevenue ratio, the net income that SOEs can use for debt service is assumed to be equal to the total debt service due by SOEs (see footnote 1 in Figure 1) .  \n• Lower external demand is expected to temporarily widen the underlying current account balance (excluding re-exports) this year, to about 3.6 percent of GDP. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is also projected to drop by","cbCaipbUNJ58tSSO","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaipbUNJ58tSSO","pdf",454120,3,1,11,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n## Risk assessment and key findings\n## Macroeconomic projections and financing strategy\n## Debt indicators, realism tools, and repayment capacity\n## Policy context and reforms","[{\"question\":\"What does the analysis conclude about Djibouti’s debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"It concludes that Djibouti is at high risk of debt distress, while debt is assessed as sustainable under current terms because authorities are expected to be able to service it.\"},{\"question\":\"Why did debt indicators deteriorate compared with the previous DSA in September 2019?\",\"answer\":\"The deterioration is attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on macroeconomic prospects, worsening growth, fiscal and external positions.\"},{\"question\":\"What financing approach is assumed for the near and medium term?\",\"answer\":\"The strategy slows the pace of new borrowing and assumes financing needs are covered through IMF support under the RCF and a grant under the CCRT, complemented by donor support on favorable terms.\"}]","Djibouti - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - May 2020 | PDF",1784482757,28,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"djibouti-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-may-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,51],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/djibouti-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-may-2020/109864/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-31","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What does the analysis conclude about Djibouti’s debt sustainability?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"It concludes that Djibouti is at high risk of debt distress, while debt is assessed as sustainable under current terms because authorities are expected to be able to service it.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Why did debt indicators deteriorate compared with the previous DSA in September 2019?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"The deterioration is attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on macroeconomic prospects, worsening growth, fiscal and external positions.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What financing approach is assumed for the near and medium term?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"The strategy slows the pace of new borrowing and assumes financing needs are covered through IMF support under the RCF and a grant under the CCRT, complemented by donor support on favorable terms.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]