[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111450-en":3,"doc-seo-111450-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111450,2336464648322,"Aria","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/2200025388227c56fec?_k=1778556882303663488",8,"Research & Report","Djibouti - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Assessment","Djibouti’s overall and external public debt is assessed to be in distress and unsustainable, reflecting sizable external arrears and prolonged breaches of debt sustainability thresholds for the present value of total and external debt-to-GDP, as well as external debt service-to-revenues ratios. The analysis indicates vulnerability to export and currency depreciation shocks, with longer shocks increasing downside risks. Fiscal conditions improved through 2024 revenue gains, military lease receipts, consolidation efforts, and the Exim Bank China moratorium through 2027, but negotiations and strengthened governance remain essential.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Sandeep Mahajan (IDA), and Taline Koranchelian and Bergljot Barkbu (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| DJIBOUTI: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Unsustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nDjibouti’s overall and external public debt is assessed to be in distress and unsustainable. This assessment reflects the accumulation of sizeable external arrears and protracted breaches of the sustainability thresholds of the present value (PV) of overall and external debt-to-GDP, as well as the external debt service-to-revenues ratios. The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) suggests that Djibouti is susceptible to exports and depreciation shocks; more prolonged and protracted shocks to the economy would also pose downside risks to the debt outlook.1  \nThe fiscal outlook has improved compared to a year ago, driven by an increase in revenues from military leases and the fiscal consolidation efforts undertaken in 2024. These factors, along with the moratorium with Exim Bank China, effective through 2027, create temporary fiscal space and help prevent the further accumulation of arrears. Additionally, the recent dissolution of the Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) presents an opportunity to significantly increase the dividends paid by State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) to the central government budget.  \nHowever, finalization of debt negotiations with major creditors, strengthened SOE governance, continued fiscal consolidation and new concessional financing remain essential to entrench debt sustainability. As the authorities continue their negotiations with major creditors to clear arrears and restructure debt, they should strive for a medium-  \n1 Djibouti’s current composite indicator (CI) is 2. 10, which corresponds to a weak debt-carrying capacity, as confirmed by the April 2025 World Economic Outlook assumptions and the 2023 World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) .  \nterm debt strategy with explicit ceilings encompassing all public and publicly guaranteed debt, ambitious revenue mobilization and SOE dividend payments to the budget.  \n1. The coverage of public debt used for this DSA is public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt (Text table 1) . Specifically, the debt stock covers central government debt and government guarantees on external debt of SOEs. Data on non-guaranteed external debt held by SOEs is not available and therefore standard assumptions are used. Information on domestic debt remains partial.2 Domestic debt contracted by the central government is covered by the authorities’ data (and hence included in this DSA) and remains small.3 SOEs’ domestic debt is not captured. With support from the World Bank, the authorities have enhanced debt transparency since 2022 by regularly publishing information on all new or restructured public or publicly guaranteed loans, including those extended to SOEs.  \n| 1 | Subsectors of the public sector | Sub-sectors covered |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n|  | Central government | X |\n| 2 | State and local government |  |\n| 3 | Other elements in the general government |  |\n| 4 | o/w: Social security fund |  |\n| 5 | o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) |  |\n| 6 | Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) | X |\n| 7 | Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) | X |\n| 8 | Non-guaranteed SOE debt |  |\n\n\n| 1 | The country's coverage of public debt | The central government, central bank, government-guaranteed debt |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  |  | Default | Used for the\u003Cbr>analysis | Reasons for deviations from the default settings |\n| 2 | Other elements of the","cbCaiccJawZrKXr5","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiccJawZrKXr5","pdf",749027,1,18,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment and Debt Outlook\n## External Debt Distress Ratings\n## Sensitivity to Shocks\n\n# Policy Context and Fiscal Developments\n## Revenue Mobilization and Consolidation\n## Exim Bank China Moratorium Through 2027\n## Sovereign Wealth Fund Dissolution and SOE Dividends\n\n# Requirements to Entrench Sustainability\n## Debt Negotiations and Arrears Clearance\n## Strengthening SOE Governance\n## New Concessional Financing and Ceilings\n\n# Coverage and Methodology\n## Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG) Debt Coverage\n## Data Gaps and Assumptions\n## Tailored Stress Test on Contingent Liabilities","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall conclusion of the joint debt sustainability analysis for Djibouti?\",\"answer\":\"Djibouti’s overall and external public debt is assessed as being in distress and unsustainable, due to accumulated arrears and breaches of sustainability thresholds.\"},{\"question\":\"Which risks make Djibouti’s debt outlook particularly vulnerable?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis points to susceptibility to exports and depreciation shocks, where more prolonged shocks would further worsen the debt outlook.\"},{\"question\":\"How has Djibouti’s fiscal outlook improved, and what temporary measures support it?\",\"answer\":\"Improvement comes from higher revenues from military leases and 2024 fiscal consolidation, supported by a moratorium with Exim Bank China effective through 2027.\"}]",1784490196,45,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"djibouti-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/djibouti-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-assessment/111450/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall conclusion of the joint debt sustainability analysis for Djibouti?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Djibouti’s overall and external public debt is assessed as being in distress and unsustainable, due to accumulated arrears and breaches of sustainability thresholds.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which risks make Djibouti’s debt outlook particularly vulnerable?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The analysis points to susceptibility to exports and depreciation shocks, where more prolonged shocks would further worsen the debt outlook.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How has Djibouti’s fiscal outlook improved, and what temporary measures support it?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Improvement comes from higher revenues from military leases and 2024 fiscal consolidation, supported by a moratorium with Exim Bank China effective through 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