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The study projects education expenditure as a share of GDP from 2020–2050 across eight South Asian countries under multiple scenarios. Results suggest reinvestment potential for basic education and smaller but meaningful scope for pre-primary and tertiary levels by 2050.",{"@graph":14,"@context":72},[15,34,55],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/","Research & 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11303\u003Cbr>Demographic Transition and Education Expenditure in South Asia\u003Cbr>Opportunities and Challenges\u003Cbr>Mariana Marchionni\u003Cbr>Namrata Raman Tognatta\u003Cbr>Emmanuel Vazquez\u003Cbr>Monica Yanez-Pagans |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| | \u003Cbr>Education Global Department February 2026 | | |  |\n|  |  |  |  | A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at [http://reproducibility.worldbank.org](http://reproducibility.worldbank.org) , click here for direct access. |\n\nPolicy Research Working Paper 11303  \nAbstract  \nDecline in the school-age population due to demographic changes presents an opportunity to redirect resources within the education sector to improve access and quality. However, the experiences of countries that have gone through similar demographic transitions show that a shrinking student population does not automatically translate into more efficient spending due to structural and political challenges. Realizing the potential fiscal space depends critically on how education systems adapt in practice to demographic changes. This paper projects public education expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product from 2020 to  \n2050 across eight South Asian countries, considering demographic shifts and different scenarios related to education system coverage, efficiency, and economic growth. The findings show that demographic changes could allow for reinvesting educational resources for basic education equivalent to 0.6 percentage points of gross domestic product on average by 2050 (compared to 2020), even after achieving universal basic education. Although the reinvestment potential for pre-primary and tertiary education is smaller, it remains significant at an estimated 0.14 percentage points of gross domestic product on average.  \nThis paper is a product of the Education Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at [http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at](http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at)[ ](http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at)[myanezpagans@worldbank.org](myanezpagans@worldbank.org). A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at [http://reproducibility](http://reproducibility). [worldbank.org](worldbank.org), click here for direct access.  \nThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.  \nProduced by the Research Support Team  \nDemographic Transition and Education Expenditure in South Asia:  \nOpportunities and Challenges *  \nMariana Marchionni **  \nEmmanuel Vazquez ****  \nNamrata Raman Tognatta *** Monica Yanez-Pagans ***  \nAuthorized for distribution by Keiko Inoue, Practice Manager, Education Global Department, World Bank Group  \nKeywords: education, demographic transition, demographic dividend, South Asia, education resources.  \nJEL codes: I22, I25, J11 .  \n* We are grateful to Leonardo Gasparini, Toby Linden, Keiko Inoue, Lars Sondergaard, Kathleen Beegle, Tobias Haque, Samer Al-Samarrai, Maurizio Bussolo, and Franziska Ohnsorge for their very helpful comments and suggestions","cbCaicw4JMpO3pM5","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaicw4JMpO3pM5","pdf",2216857,61,"English","# Abstract\n# 1. Introduction\n## Demographic transition challenges and opportunities\n## Education access and enrollment trends\n## Learning poverty and quality constraints","[{\"question\":\"How can demographic change affect education spending in South Asia?\",\"answer\":\"The paper argues demographic decline can enable reallocating resources toward better access and quality, but it does not guarantee efficiency gains due to structural and political challenges.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the study project and for which countries?\",\"answer\":\"It projects public education expenditure as a share of GDP from 2020 to 2050 across eight South Asian countries, accounting for demographic shifts and scenarios covering coverage, efficiency, and economic growth.\"},{\"question\":\"What challenge to education quality is highlighted in the introduction?\",\"answer\":\"Despite higher enrollment, ensuring quality education remains difficult, with many children failing minimum reading proficiency levels as shown by the Learning Poverty Database for countries such as Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.\"}]","Demographic Transition and Education Expenditure in South Asia - Opportunities and Challenges | PDF",1792063788,154]