[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110446-en":3,"doc-seo-110446-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},110446,5909877438554,"Maeve","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/5600025385ad2bf12a7?_k=1778553567797529272",8,"Research & Report","Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt distress assessment","The assessment finds the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe remains in external and overall debt distress due to prolonged unresolved external arrears exceeding 2 percent of GDP. Despite a generally sustainable granularity outcome, the country faces elevated risks because the present value of external public and publicly guaranteed debt-to-exports breaches thresholds in 2021–2022 following the COVID-19 shock. While other external indicators stay below limits in the baseline, total PPG debt is projected to breach a weak debt-carrying benchmark through 2024. Public debt sustainability is preserved under reforms and concessional borrowing, but contingent liabilities are more likely to materialize.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Marcello Estevão (IDA), Vivek Arora and Stefania Fabrizio (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE\u003Cbr>JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In debt distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgement | No |\n\nThe country remains in debt distress due to prolonged unsettled external arrears of more than 2 percent of GDP. Staff assesses that the country has the capacity to repay the external arrears over time, despite of the mechanical risk rating of high risk for debt distress for external and public debt. While the present value (PV) of the external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt-to-exports ratio breaches its threshold from 2021 to 2022 due to the COVID-19 shock, all other external PPG debt burden indicators remain below their thresholds throughout the projection horizon in the baseline scenario. The PV of total PPG debt (after accounting for the concessional terms of EMAE (a state-owned utility company) and central government debt and arrears to the country’s fuel supplier, ENCO) is projected to breach the benchmark associated with a weak debt-carrying capacity1 (35 percent of GDP) through 2024. As the downward trajectory of the public debt remains intact, predicated on the authorities’ commitment to implement EMAE’s planned reforms, to borrow externally only on concessional terms at a measured pace, to a gradual fiscal consolidation, and to the planned energy reforms, public debt sustainability is preserved but subject to large risks. The likelihood of contingent liabilities materializing is elevated.  \n1 The thresholds are determined by the Composite Indicator (CI) . São Tomé and Príncipe’s CI score based on the April 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the 2020 World Bank Country Policy Institutional Assessment (CPIA) data is 2.68, corresponding to a weak debt-carrying capacity.  \n1. Macroeconomic assumptions underlying this DSA update are consistent with the macroframework in the staff report and broadly in line with the previous DSA. Real GDP growth is estimated at 1.9 percent in 2021, weighed down by power outages. Headline inflation rose to 9.5 percent (y-o-y) by end-December, driven by high food prices. In 2022, sharp increases in imported commodities, higher freight, and maritime costs are expected to weaken transportation and commercial services and slow fishing and agriculture activities. As a result, the growth is expected to decline to 1.4 percent in 2022 and headline inflation to reach about 17 percent (y-o-y) in 2022. Gross financing needs are projected to increase in 2022, mainly reflecting reconstruction needs in the aftermath of the end-December 2021 floods, which have been largely supported by grants from donors. GDP growth rates are expected to average 3.7 percent over the long term, reflecting development in tourism and infrastructure. In the medium-term, inflation is expected to decline with global prices stabilizing, and the projected average is 3.0 percent over the long term. Projections for grants over the long run are 7.4 percent of GDP on average, and domestic primary deficits are expected to average 0.4 percent of GDP. Higher projections for FDI inflows over the long run, reflecting higher projected oil related FDI based on higher oil prices. As a result of higher international food and fuel prices, imports are projected to be higher compared to the April 2022 DSA. There are some upward revisions to exports to reflect higher food prices and continued recovery in tourism with the good performance of tourism in 2022Q1 . With the revisions to trade values, current account deficits are projected to be higher than the previ","cbCaihMFdU7pEl8H","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaihMFdU7pEl8H","pdf",618078,5,1,17,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress\n## External arrears and risk rating\n## Debt burden indicators and thresholds\n## Macroeconomic assumptions and financing needs\n## Forecasts overview","[{\"question\":\"Why does São Tomé and Príncipe remain in debt distress in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"Prolonged unresolved external arrears exceeding 2 percent of GDP keep the country in external and overall debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt-burden metric breaches its threshold, and when?\",\"answer\":\"The present value of external public and publicly guaranteed debt-to-exports breaches its threshold from 2021 to 2022 due to the COVID-19 shock.\"},{\"question\":\"How do baseline projections affect other external public and publicly guaranteed debt indicators?\",\"answer\":\"Other external PPG debt burden indicators remain below their thresholds throughout the projection horizon in the baseline scenario.\"}]","Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt distress assessment | PDF",1784485461,43,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"democratic-republic-of-sao-tome-and-principe-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-assessment","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/democratic-republic-of-sao-tome-and-principe-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-assessment/110446/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"Why does São Tomé and Príncipe remain in debt distress in the analysis?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"Prolonged unresolved external arrears exceeding 2 percent of GDP keep the country in external and overall debt distress.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"Which debt-burden metric breaches its threshold, and when?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"The present value of external public and publicly guaranteed debt-to-exports breaches its threshold from 2021 to 2022 due to the COVID-19 shock.",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"How do baseline projections affect other external public and publicly guaranteed debt indicators?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"Other external PPG debt burden indicators remain below their thresholds throughout the projection horizon in the baseline scenario.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":20,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]