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Since 2012, three major market cycles have emerged from shocks: Hours of Service changes (2013), ELD mandates (2016), and COVID-19 (2020). The study develops an industry-driven four-phase cycle definition, then forecasts upcoming two-year spot and contract rates using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) time-series econometric model.",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/defining-and-forecasting-full-truckload-market-cycles-capstone-thesis/292431/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/defining-and-forecasting-full-truckload-market-cycles-capstone-thesis/292431.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Levi","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-18","2026-09-17",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",11,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"What market-cycle shocks are used to frame full truckload cycles in this research?","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"The cycles are linked to Hours of Service regulations in 2013, Electronic Logging Device (ELD) mandates in 2016, and the COVID-19 pandemic starting in 2020.","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"How does the study define a full truckload market cycle?",{"text":118,"@type":114},"It builds an industry-driven, four-phase cycle definition using insights from expert interviews and a widespread survey.",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"What method forecasts the next two years of spot and contract rates?",{"text":122,"@type":114},"The study uses a Vector Autoregression (VAR) time-series econometric model with independent variables to predict the upcoming two-year rates.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},292431,1789651244,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":140,"language":141,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":142,"faqs":143,"seo_title":144,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":130,"read_time":145,"preview_page_count":4},7971461740909,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d","Defining and Forecasting Full Truckload Market Cycles  \nby  \nSarah Roman  \nSupply Chain and Information Systems, B.S., The Pennsylvania State University, 2020  \nand  \nWirinratch Kirirak  \nEconomics, B.E., Thammasat University, 2022  \nSUBMITTED TO THE PROGRAM IN SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF APPLIED SCIENCE IN SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT  \nAT THE  \nMASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY  \nMay 2025  \n© 2025 Sarah Roman and Wirinratch Kiriak as submitted to registrar. All rights reserved.  \nThe authors hereby grant to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this capstone document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created.  \nSignature of Author:   Department of Supply Chain Management May 9, 2025  \nSignature of Author:   Department of Supply Chain Management May 9, 2025  \nCertified by:   Dr. Chris Caplice  \nExecutive Director of MIT CTL Capstone Advisor  \nCertified by:   Dr. Angela Acocella Research Scientist Capstone Advisor  \nAccepted by:  Prof. Yossi Sheffi  \nDirector, Center for Transportation and Logistics Elisha Gray II Professor of Engineering Systems Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering  \nDefining and Forecasting Full Truckload Market Cycles  \nby  \nSarah Roman  \nand  \nWirinratch Kirirak  \nSubmitted to the Program in Supply Chain Management on May 9, 2025 in Partial Fulfillment of the  \nRequirements for the Degree of Master of Applied Science in Supply Chain Management  \nABSTRACT  \nThe U.S. full dry-van truckload (FTL) industry serves as a primary channel through which goods move across the country, forming the essential backbone for all product categories and commodity groups. Following the Motor Carrier Act of 1980, the truckload industry was deregulated and became increasingly influenced by market dynamics. Since 2012, three distinct market cycles have been observed, each initiated by a significant shock or catalyst. These include the implementation of new Hours of Service regulations in 2013, the introduction of Electronic Logging Device (ELD) mandates in 2016, and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. While practitioners of the trucking industry have long attempted to predict these cycles, an industry-driven definition and standardized way of predicting upcoming cycles has yet to be written. This research first defines an industry-driven, four-phase definition of the truckload market cycle using insights from expert interviews and a widespread survey. Driven by these insights, this study uses time-series econometric model which is Vector Autoregression (VAR) to predict the upcoming two years of spot and contract rates based on independent variables. In conclusion, our findings identify the key variables that most significantly influence truckload market cycle projections, establish the optimal lag structure, and provide forecasts in both the short-term and long-term.  \nCapstone Advisor: Dr. Chris Caplice  \nTitle: Executive Director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for Transportation & Logistics (CTL)  \nCapstone Advisor: Dr. Angela Acocella  \nTitle: Research Scientist  \nACKNOWLEDGMENTS  \nWe are grateful to our faculty advisors, Dr. Chris Caplice and Dr. Angi Acocella, for their unwavering support and guidance. We extend our sincere appreciation to our sponsor company, C.H. Robinson, for their partnership, provision of data, and insightful recommendations that shaped the direction of this work. Finally, we thank the industry practitioners who contributed their time and expertise to ensure this research provides meaningful value to the broader trucking industry.  \nSarah extends her heartfelt gratitude to her family, friends, fiancé , and puppies for their unwavering support, encouragement, and presence throughout the course of this project. She also extends her genuine gratitude to Wirinratch for ten unforgettable months filled with laughter, a few tears, unw","cbCaiddWy0EIhbxL","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiddWy0EIhbxL","pdf",2790895,74,"English","# Introduction\n## Problem Statement\n# State of the Practice\n## Current Industry Practices\n## Current Challenges\n# Methodology\n## Data Exploration\n### Deriving Variables from Interviews and Survey\n### Variable Correlation\n## Cycle Definition","[{\"question\":\"What market-cycle shocks are used to frame full truckload cycles in this research?\",\"answer\":\"The cycles are linked to Hours of Service regulations in 2013, Electronic Logging Device (ELD) mandates in 2016, and the COVID-19 pandemic starting in 2020.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the study define a full truckload market cycle?\",\"answer\":\"It builds an industry-driven, four-phase cycle definition using insights from expert interviews and a widespread survey.\"},{\"question\":\"What method forecasts the next two years of spot and contract rates?\",\"answer\":\"The study uses a Vector Autoregression (VAR) time-series econometric model with independent variables to predict the upcoming two-year rates.\"}]","Defining and Forecasting Full Truckload Market Cycles - Capstone Thesis | PDF",186]