[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-324492-105":59,"doc-detail-324492-en":131},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":124,"head_meta":126,"extra_data":128,"updated_unix":130},105,"en","current-outlook-sustained-growth-sustained-inflation","Current Outlook: Sustained Growth, Sustained Inflation","","Forecast findings from the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable describe a cautiously optimistic macroeconomic outlook. Economists expect real GNP to expand through 1991 without any forecasts calling for recession, while inflation is projected to persist around 4 percent. Growth is attributed mainly to sustained fixed investment and exports, with manufacturing poised for a rebound after a late-1989 slowdown. Industry discussions also cover interest-rate expectations, credit availability, and sector-specific risks in areas such as aerospace, autos, and industrial components.",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/current-outlook-sustained-growth-sustained-inflation/324492/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/current-outlook-sustained-growth-sustained-inflation/324492.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Anda","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-27","2026-09-21",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",13,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"What do the economists expect for real GNP through 1991?","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"They project real GNP will grow at nearly a 2 percent annualized rate in the first half of 1990 and improve to between 2.2 and 2.6 percent through the end of 1991.","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"How is inflation expected to change during 1990 and 1991?",{"text":118,"@type":114},"Inflation is expected to persist at about a 4 percent rate through 1991, with no call for a repeat of the unusual 8.5 percent CPI boost seen in early 1990.",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"What factors are seen as supporting economic growth?",{"text":122,"@type":114},"Most forecasts point to sustained increases in business fixed investment and exports, supported by steady but moderate consumer spending, along with a positive manufacturing outlook.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},324492,1790136418,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":24,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":105,"preview_page_count":4},962075006959,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/e0002397efbe92a78e?_k=1776741047341049297","by John J.Erceg and  \nPaul J.Nickels  \nL  \nUike the northerm climes,the U.S.economy has weathered the cold of win-ter and seems to be entering a renewedphase of growth.Although the economicrenewal is not without its impendingstorm clouds,there seem to be firmgrounds for optimism about the balanceof 1990 and perhaps beyond.  \nThat optimism was expressed by the 28economists making forecasts for thelatest Fourth District Economists'Roundtable,held May 4 at the FederalReserve Bank of Cleveland.The group,representing manufacturing,trade,andfinancial institutions,was cautiouslyoptimistic about economic growth,predicting continued expansion in theeconomy through 1991,without asingle forecast of recession.  \nFew of the participants,however,expect much relief from inflation,which is forecast to persist at a rate ofabout 4 percent through 1991.Nonecalled for a repeat of the surprising 8.5percent boost in the Consumer PriceIndex(CPI)experienced during thefirst quarter of 1990,which was charac-terize as an aberration.  \nThe group's median forecast for outputcalls for real GNPto grow at an annual-ized rate of nearly 2 percent for thefirst half of 1990,and to improve to arate of between 2.2 and 2.6 percentthrough the end of 1991.Most expect  \n# Current Outlook:SustainedGrowth,Sustained Inflation\n\nstrength to come from sustainedincreases in business fixed investmentand from exports,with steady butmoderate growth in consumer spendingthroughout the period.The outlook formanufacturing is positive as well,call-ing for revived growth following theslowdown that began in late 1989.  \nThe majority of forecasters expect inter-est rates to remain at a plateau through1990 and then to increase slightly in1991,wth a prime rate between 10.0and 10.2 percent for the period.All per-ceive that ample credit is available,although credit standards have appar-ently tightened,especially for realestate loans and perhaps more notice-ably in New England and the South-west than in other regions  \nAs usual,there was spirited debate onthe appropriate course for FederalReserve policy,particularly among rep-resentatives of the manufacturing andservice industries.  \n## ■ The Outlook\n\nIn contrast to discussions at theJanuary 1990 Roundtable,not a singleeconomist predicted a decline in realGNP,at least through 1991.The largestsource of optimism was an improvingoutlook for manufacturing.Estimatesof industrial production called for a sig-nificant rebound from a mild declineexperienced over the first quarter of the  \nJune 15,1990  \nForecasters attending the most recentFourth District Economists'Round-table expect a stronger long-termgrowth path for the economy thanexperienced in past months,withbrightened prospects for manufactur-ing following last year's slowdown.Despite some surprising CPI figuresfor 1990:IQ,the economists call for asustained underlying rate of inflationof about 4 percent through 1991.  \ncurrent year to an average growth rateof 3 percent through 1991,led by ex-ports and business fixed investment.  \n\"We're very bullish on manufactur-ing,\"stated one financial economistHis perspective was based on arebound in auto production in thesecond quarter of the current year,on awarm-weather boost in construction,and on anticipated replacement ofdeclining inventories.The core ofoptimism is an improving profit picturebecause of a“solid cost-cutting pro-gram by the U.S.manufacturing sec-tor\"that has left industry poised for asubstantial eanings rebound.  \nPerhaps the industry with the mostsolid prospects for 1990 and beyond is  \naerospace.World orders for commer-cial aircraft rose 78 percent in 1989from the previous record year in 1988.Between 1990 and 2005,nearly 10,000commercial aircraft with an estimatedvalue of $626 billion(in 1990 dollars)are scheduled to be delivered,for anaverage delivery of about $38 billionannually,compared with $14 billionannually between 1970 and 1989.TheU.S.share of those deliveries is nearly40 percent.U.S.deliveries are pro-jected to increase t","cbCait5TaxZbY6hL","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCait5TaxZbY6hL","pdf",1176090,"English","# The Outlook\n## Current Outlook: Sustained Growth, Sustained Inflation","[{\"question\":\"What do the economists expect for real GNP through 1991?\",\"answer\":\"They project real GNP will grow at nearly a 2 percent annualized rate in the first half of 1990 and improve to between 2.2 and 2.6 percent through the end of 1991.\"},{\"question\":\"How is inflation expected to change during 1990 and 1991?\",\"answer\":\"Inflation is expected to persist at about a 4 percent rate through 1991, with no call for a repeat of the unusual 8.5 percent CPI boost seen in early 1990.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors are seen as supporting economic growth?\",\"answer\":\"Most forecasts point to sustained increases in business fixed investment and exports, supported by steady but moderate consumer spending, along with a positive manufacturing outlook.\"}]","Current Outlook: Sustained Growth, Sustained Inflation | PDF",1789968070]