[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-149581-en":3,"doc-seo-149581-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":27,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},149581,962075114765,"Quinn","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","CS183: Startup - Notes Essay - The Challenge of the Future","课程围绕“未来挑战”展开：先区分零到一(0到1)的技术性创造与一到n的全球化复制，解释微观与宏观如何难以整合。文中回顾技术进程从蒸汽机时代到1960年代乐观主义的兴起，并指出收入增长放缓与工资停滞等现象。随后强调计算机科学作为重新掌握进步方向的起点，并讨论创新在教育与创业叙事中的难度及“例外论”带来的心理困境。","Notes Essays—Peter Thiel’s CS183: Startup—Stanford, Spring 2012  \nPeter Thiel’s CS183: Startup-Class 1 Notes Essay  \nCS183: Startup—Notes Essay—The Challenge of the Future  \nPurpose and Preamble  \nWe might describe our world as having retail sanity, but wholesale madness. Details are well understood; the big picture remains unclear. A fundamental challenge—in business as in life—is to integrate the micro and macro such that all things make sense.  \nHumanities majors may well learn a great deal about the world. But they don‘t really learn career skills through their studies. Engineering majors, conversely, learn in great technical detail. But they might not learn why, how, or where they should apply their skills in the workforce. The best students, workers, and thinkers will integrate these questions into a cohesive narrative. This course aims to facilitate that process.  \nI. The History of Technology  \nFor most of recent human history—from the invention of the steam engine in the late 17th century through about the late 1960‘s or so—technological process has been tremendous, perhaps even relentless. In most prior human societies, people made money by taking it from others. The industrial revolution wrought a paradigm shift in which people make money through trade, not plunder.  \nThe importance of this shift is hard to overstate. Perhaps 100 billion people have ever lived on earth. Most of them lived in essentially stagnant societies; success involved claiming value, not creating it. So the massive technological acceleration of the past few hundred years is truly incredible.  \nThe zenith of optimism about the future of technology might have been the 1960‘s. People believed in the future. They thought about the future. Many were supremely confident that the next 50 years would be a half-century of unprecedented technological progress.  \nBut with the exception of the computer industry, it wasn‘t. Per capita incomes are still rising, but that rate is starkly decelerating. Median wages have been stagnant since 1973. People find themselves in an alarming Alice-in-Wonderland-style scenario in which they must run harder and harder—that is, work longer hours—just to stay in the same place. This deceleration is complex, and wage data alone don‘t explain it. But they do support the general sense that the rapid progress of the last 200 years is slowing all too quickly.  \nII. The Case For Computer Science  \nComputers have been the happy exception to recent tech deceleration. Moore‘s/Kryder‘s/Wirth‘s laws have largely held up, and forecast continued growth. Computer tech, with ever-improving hardware and agile development, is something of a model for other industries. It‘s obviously central to the Silicon Valley ecosystem and a key driver of modern technological change. So CS is the logical starting place to recapture the reins of progress.  \nIII. The Future For Progress  \nA. Globalization and Tech: Horizontal vs. Vertical Progress  \nProgress comes in two flavors: horizontal/extensive and vertical/intensive. Horizontal or extensive progress basically means copying things that work. In one word, it means simply ―globalization.‖ Consider what China will be like in 50 years. The safe bet is it will be a lot like the United States is now. Cities will be copied, cars will be copied, and rail systems will be copied. Maybe some steps will be skipped. But it‘s copying all the same.  \nVertical or intensive progress, by contrast, means doing new things. The single word for this is ―technology.‖ Intensive progress involves going from 0 to 1 (not simply the 1 to n of globalization) . We see much ofour vertical progress come from places like California, and specifically Silicon Valley. But there is every reason to question whether we have enough of it. Indeed, most people seem to focus almost entirely on globalization instead of technology; speaking of ―developed‖ versus ―developing nations‖ is implicitly bearish about technology because it implies some","cbCaiu63YDQ2HwrD","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiu63YDQ2HwrD","pdf",7981995,1,242,"English","en",105,"# Purpose and Preamble\n# The History of Technology\n# The Case For Computer Science\n# The Future For Progress\n## Globalization and Tech: Horizontal vs. Vertical Progress\n## The Problems of 0 to 1\n## The Educational and Narrative Challenge","[{\"question\":\"课程开篇如何描述技术与经济前景的差距？\",\"answer\":\"文中指出世界呈现“零售理性、批发疯狂”的矛盾：细节易懂但整体图景不清晰。技术进步在历史上加速惊人，但近期增长与工资数据体现出放缓迹象。\"},{\"question\":\"“全球化”与“技术”在0到1叙事中如何区分？\",\"answer\":\"水平/广泛进步对应复制可行事物，通常用“全球化”概括；垂直/密集进步对应做新事物，用“技术”概括。关键差异在于从0到1的创造而非从1到n的重复。\"},{\"question\":\"为什么从0到1的创新更难？\",\"answer\":\"作者强调0到1在质上不同且往往更艰难，且会触发“例外论”式的怀疑：做新东西的创办者或发明者必须不断面对“我是不是疯了”的不确定性。\"}]","CS183: Startup - Notes Essay - The Challenge of the Future | PDF",1787803507,610,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":28},"cs183-startup-notes-essay-the-challenge-of-the-future","",{"@graph":36,"@context":86},[37,54,69],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,48,51],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":47},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/cs183-startup-notes-essay-the-challenge-of-the-future/149581/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":41,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-08-31","2026-08-27",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"课程开篇如何描述技术与经济前景的差距？","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"文中指出世界呈现“零售理性、批发疯狂”的矛盾：细节易懂但整体图景不清晰。技术进步在历史上加速惊人，但近期增长与工资数据体现出放缓迹象。","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"“全球化”与“技术”在0到1叙事中如何区分？",{"text":81,"@type":77},"水平/广泛进步对应复制可行事物，通常用“全球化”概括；垂直/密集进步对应做新事物，用“技术”概括。关键差异在于从0到1的创造而非从1到n的重复。",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"为什么从0到1的创新更难？",{"text":85,"@type":77},"作者强调0到1在质上不同且往往更艰难，且会触发“例外论”式的怀疑：做新东西的创办者或发明者必须不断面对“我是不是疯了”的不确定性。","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":47,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]