[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111058-en":3,"doc-seo-111058-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},111058,1099513958607,"Jiven","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/100002390cf8733938c?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1778829742770036399",8,"Research & Report","Côte d’Ivoire - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Risk of external debt distress Moderate - Overall risk of debt distress Moderate","Côte d’Ivoire’s overall and external public debt stays at moderate risk of debt distress and improves versus the prior DSA following the debt management operation completed in S1 2024. In 2024, the external debt service-to-revenue indicator breaches its threshold, while remaining below the threshold for the rest of the projection horizon under the baseline. Stress tests show vulnerability to breaches, with export shocks producing the most severe outcomes; the PV of the overall debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds thresholds in most stress cases. The shock from natural disasters is identified as the most extreme for public debt, and shock-absorption space remains limited. The analysis details coverage of central government debt, guarantees, SOE debt treatment, contingent liability assumptions, and strengthening of debt recording, monitoring, and transparency reforms.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna Dadi (IDA) and Montfort Mlachila and Boileau Loko (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| CÔTE D'IVOIRE: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nCôte d’Ivoire’s overall and external public debt remain at moderate risk of debt distress and show significative improvements compared to the DSA prior to the debt management operation (DMO) completed in S1 2024. Mainly owing to this DMO, the external debt service-to-revenue indicator breaches the threshold in 2024, but the ratio remains below the threshold during the remainder of the projection period as do all other projected external debt burden indicators under the baseline. All indicators are susceptible to breaches under stress scenarios, the most extreme of which involves a shock to exports. The PV of overall debt-to-GDP ratio is below its threshold, but exceeds it in most stress scenarios, the most extreme of which involves the shock to exports. A customized stress test shows that the natural disaster shock is the most extreme shock to public debt. The space to absorb shocks remains limited.  \n1. Public debt covers both the debt of the central government, as well as the guarantees provided by the central government, including those guarantees that pertain to state-owned  \n1 Under the revised Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries, Côte d’Ivoire’s Composite Indicator (CI) is 2.94 based on the April 2024 WEO and the 2022 CPIA, corresponding to a medium debt carrying capacity.  \nenterprise (SOE) debt (Text Table 1) . The DSA classifies external and domestic debt based on the currency criterion, given data constraints that prevent the use of the residency criterion.2 Until now, local administrations had no authorization to borrow debt; however, the law on national debt policy, passed in June 2024, grants the capacity to borrow to local administrations. The terms of their borrowing will be specified in an implementing decree currently being validated and therefore no local governments have yet used this authorization to borrow. In addition, a statistical system will be established to capture the debt of local administrations and ensure its monitoring. On SOE debt, the authorities have continued to improve debt coverage and monitoring in recent years. At end-2023, both SOE guaranteed and nonguaranteed commercial debt amounted to 1 percent of GDP. In the context of the current DSA, the following approach is taken:  \n• All guaranteed SOE debt and on-lent debt is included in the debt stock in the baseline.3  \n• Non-guaranteed SOE debt is captured as a contingent liability shock—this shock is set at 1 percent of GDP.4  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n| Subsectors of the public sector\u003Cbr>Central government\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs)\u003Cbr>Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)\u003Cbr>Non-guaranteed SOE debt Check box 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>X\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr> |\n\n2. Efforts to increase the government’s capacity to record and monitor public debt and contingent liabilities continue. The authorities are committed to further enhancing data coverage of SOEs in the DSA baseline, including consolidating the general government fiscal accounts with the financial statements of the SOEs (on revenue, expenditure, and financing) and corresponding 20-year projections. The authorities see this consolidation as a prerequisite for incorporating SOE debt into total debt (in the base","cbCaioi7hg1LM6dt","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaioi7hg1LM6dt","pdf",1000905,2,1,28,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment results\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall debt distress risk\n# Stress testing and shocks\n## Breach triggers under stress scenarios\n## Export shock and natural disaster shock\n# Debt coverage and methodological approach\n## Public debt definition and currency-based classification\n## SOE and guarantees treatment\n## Contingent liability shocks\n# Policy and data improvements\n## Enhancing debt recording and monitoring\n## Debt transparency, fiscal sustainability, and debt management reforms","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Côte d’Ivoire in this analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is rated Moderate. It remains moderate under the baseline projection.\"},{\"question\":\"Which indicator breaches the threshold in 2024, and what happens afterward?\",\"answer\":\"The external debt service-to-revenue indicator breaches the threshold in 2024. The ratio stays below the threshold during the remainder of the projection period under the baseline.\"},{\"question\":\"What shocks drive the most severe outcomes in the stress tests?\",\"answer\":\"The most extreme scenario involves a shock to exports, which makes most external debt burden indicators breach under stress. A customized stress test further identifies natural disaster shock as the most extreme shock to public debt.\"}]",1784488381,71,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":28},"cote-divoire-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-of-external-debt-distress-moderate-overall-risk-of-debt-distress-moderate","",{"@graph":36,"@context":85},[37,53,68],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,47,50],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/cote-divoire-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-of-external-debt-distress-moderate-overall-risk-of-debt-distress-moderate/111058/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":41,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-24","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Côte d’Ivoire in this analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The overall risk of debt distress is rated Moderate. It remains moderate under the baseline projection.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which indicator breaches the threshold in 2024, and what happens afterward?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The external debt service-to-revenue indicator breaches the threshold in 2024. The ratio stays below the threshold during the remainder of the projection period under the baseline.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What shocks drive the most severe outcomes in the stress tests?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The most extreme scenario involves a shock to exports, which makes most external debt burden indicators breach under stress. A customized stress test further identifies natural disaster shock as the most extreme shock to public debt.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]