[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111617-en":3,"doc-seo-111617-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111617,7971461740886,"Theodore","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_3d24733baf745e90a7e4bdd5f77d97b2",8,"Research & Report","Côte d’Ivoire - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate risk assessment","Joint Bank-Fund analysis assesses Côte d’Ivoire’s overall and external public debt sustainability under the LIC-DSF approach, concluding a moderate risk of debt distress, consistent with the December 2024 DSA update. Under the baseline, external debt burden indicators breach thresholds in 2025 (notably debt service-to-revenue and debt service-to-exports) but remain below thresholds for the rest of the projection period. The study highlights limited buffers to absorb shocks, with stress tests showing export shocks as the most extreme; a natural-disaster shock is also identified as especially severe for public debt.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA) , and Montfort Mlachila and Tokhir Mirzoev (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| CÔTE D’IVOIRE: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nCôte d’Ivoire’s overall and external public debt remain at moderate risk of debt distress, similarly to the December 2024 DSA. The external debt service-to-revenue and to-export indicators ratios breach the corresponding thresholds in 2025, but the ratios remain below the thresholds during the remainder of the projection period as do all other projected external debt burden indicators under the baseline. All indicators are susceptible to breaches under stress scenarios, the most extreme of which involves a shock to exports. A customized stress test shows that the natural disaster shock is the most extreme shock to public debt. The space to absorb shocks remains limited as evidenced by the short-term external bridge loan contracted at end-2024, which contributed to the breach of the external debt service threshold in 2025.  \n1 Under the revised Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries, Côte d’Ivoire’s Composite Indicator (CI) is 2.98 based on the October 2024 WEO and the 2023 CPIA, corresponding to a medium debt carrying capacity.  \n2 The DSA update is a streamlined DSA as per LIC-DSF GN, ¶16, p. 11, following the full December 2024 DSA which included discussions on climate change and domestic debt (IMF Country Report No. 25/91) . The circumstances have not changed significantly since the last DSA as the macroeconomic conditions have remained broadly stable. Latest financing assumptions are discussed.  \n1. The Ivorian economy continues to display resilience. Strong consumption and investment demand underpinned robust economic activity in 2024. Staff estimates 2024 real GDP growth at 6.0 percent, slightly lower than 6.5 percent in 2023, and reflecting weaker agriculture and construction activity in the first half of the year. Nevertheless, agriculture has begun to recover in 2024, with cocoa production increasing by around 4 percent as El Niño conditions subside. Growth is bolstered by increasing production from the Baleine oil field, alongside robust activity in telecommunication and transportation, and strong consumption and investment demand. Reflecting improved momentum, staff project growth at 6.3 percent in 2025. Headline annual average CPI inflation fell from 4.4 percent (yoy) in 2023 to 3.5 percent (yoy) in 2024, partly reflecting softening commodity prices, and is expected to further decline to 3 percent (yoy) in 2025.  \n2. The assumptions in the baseline scenario are consistent with the macroeconomic framework of the fourth review of the EFF/ECF arrangements and third review of the RSF. (Text Tables 2 and 3) . The performance under the fourth review of the EFF/ECF arrangements and third review of the RSF is generally strong with all quantitative performance criteria and all indicative targets (except one) as of December 2024, all but one structural benchmarks (SB) as of May 2025 and all reform measures (RM) under the RSF as of May 2025 met. The authorities are making progress towards meeting the SBs and RMs for the remainder of the year. The baseline macro assumptions reflect climate change risks and mitigation, adaptation, and transition measures.  \n3. Similarly to the previous DSA, GDP growth over the medium term is projected to range between 6 and 7 percent with inflation remaining low. Growth is expected to average around 6.7 percent in 2026-30, and to reach 7 percent in 2029 due to strong hydrocarbon production in phase 3 of the Baleine oilfield. Then it is e","cbCaiteqzzjn3WuF","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiteqzzjn3WuF","pdf",784885,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and overall conclusions\n## Baseline debt distress risk\n## Breach behavior and buffers\n## Judgment and stress testing","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall and external risk of debt distress for Côte d’Ivoire?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis concludes that both overall risk of debt distress and risk of external debt distress are moderate.\"},{\"question\":\"Which indicators breach thresholds, and in which year?\",\"answer\":\"External debt service-to-revenue and debt service-to-exports breach their corresponding thresholds in 2025, while remaining below thresholds during the remainder of the projection period.\"},{\"question\":\"What do the stress tests show about vulnerability to shocks?\",\"answer\":\"Indicators are susceptible to breaches under stress scenarios; the most extreme involves a shock to exports, and a customized stress test finds a natural disaster shock is the most extreme shock to public debt.\"}]",1784490939,53,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"cote-divoire-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/cote-divoire-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk-assessment/111617/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall and external risk of debt distress for Côte d’Ivoire?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The analysis concludes that both overall risk of debt distress and risk of external debt distress are moderate.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which indicators breach thresholds, and in which year?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"External debt service-to-revenue and debt service-to-exports breach their corresponding thresholds in 2025, while remaining below thresholds during the remainder of the projection period.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What do the stress tests show about vulnerability to shocks?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Indicators are susceptible to breaches under stress scenarios; the most extreme involves a shock to exports, and a customized stress test finds a natural disaster shock is the most extreme shock to public debt.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]