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CMIP5/6 models reproduce El Niño transition complexity but fail for La Niña due to a weaker-than-observed subtropical mechanism and a cold bias in model tropical Pacific mean SSTs.",{"@graph":14,"@context":72},[15,34,55],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/","Research & Report",3,{"item":32,"name":10,"@type":21,"position":33},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/contrasting-transition-complexity-between-el-nino-and-la-nina-observations-and-cmip56-models-june-2020-revised/665610/",4,{"url":32,"name":10,"@type":35,"image":36,"author":41,"headline":10,"publisher":44,"fileFormat":47,"inLanguage":8,"description":12,"dateModified":48,"datePublished":49,"encodingFormat":47,"isAccessibleForFree":50,"interactionStatistic":51},"DigitalDocument",{"url":37,"@type":38,"width":39,"height":40},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/contrasting-transition-complexity-between-el-nino-and-la-nina-observations-and-cmip56-models-june-2020-revised/665610.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":42,"@type":43},"Eliana","Person",{"url":19,"name":45,"@type":46},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-30","2026-10-29",true,{"@type":52,"interactionType":53,"userInteractionCount":30},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":54},"ViewAction",{"@type":56,"mainEntity":57},"FAQPage",[58,64,68],{"name":59,"@type":60,"acceptedAnswer":61},"How do El Niño and La Niña differ in event-to-event transition complexity?","Question",{"text":62,"@type":63},"El Niño is dominated by episodic, cyclic, and multi-year transitions in that order, while La Niña shows the reversed order. This creates a clear asymmetry between warm and cold phases in transition patterns.","Answer",{"name":65,"@type":60,"acceptedAnswer":66},"What mechanism is proposed to explain the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña transitions?",{"text":67,"@type":63},"A subtropical Pacific onset mechanism is used to explain the difference. It triggers ENSO events via subtropical processes and produces more multi-year transitions for La Niña and more episodic transitions for El Niño due to nonlinear responses to the tropical Pacific mean SST state.",{"name":69,"@type":60,"acceptedAnswer":70},"Why do CMIP5/6 models fail to reproduce La Niña transition complexity?",{"text":71,"@type":63},"The models fail because the subtropical onset mechanism is weaker than observed and the tropical Pacific mean SSTs have a cold bias. 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Email: [jyyu@uci.edu](jyyu@uci.edu)   \n33 Abstract  \n34 The observed El Niño and La Niña exhibit different complexities in their  \n35 event-to-event transition patterns. The El Niño is dominated in order by episodic, 36 cyclic, and multi-year transitions, but the reversed order is found in the La Niña. A  \n37 subtropical Pacific onset mechanism is used to explain this difference. This  \n38 mechanism triggers El Niño/La Niña events via subtropical processes and is  \n39 responsible for producing multi-year and episodic transitions. Its nonlinear responses  \n40 to the tropical Pacific mean state result in more multi-year transitions for La Niña  \n41 than El Niño and more episodic transitions for El Niño than La Niña. The CMIP5/6  \n42 models realistically simulate the observed transition complexity of El Niño but fail to  \n43 simulate the transition complexity of La Niña. This deficiency in CMIP5 models  \n44 arises from a weaker than observed subtropical onset mechanism and a cold bias in  \n45 the tropical Pacific mean sea surface temperatures in the models.  \n46  \n47  Plain Language Summary  \n48 A new asymmetry is found between the warm (i.e., El Niño) and cold (i.e., La Niña)  \n49 phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in their event-to-event transition  \n50 patterns. The observed El Niño transitions is dominated in order by the episodic, 51 cyclic, and multi-year patterns, but the reversed order is found in the La Niña  \n52 transitions. This difference in the transitions arises from a subtropical Pacific forcing  \n53 mechanism that triggers ENSO events. The subtropical onset mechanism is found to  \n54 generate more episodic transitions for El Niño than La Niña and more multi-year  \n55 transitions for La Niña than El Niño. This asymmetry is due to nonlinear responses of  \n56 the subtropical mechanism to the tropical mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) .  \n57 State-of-art global climate models realistically simulate the observed transition  \n58 complexity of El Niño but fail to reproduce the transition complexity of La Niña. This  \n59 deficiency arises from a weak subtropical onset mechanism and a cold bias in the  \n60 tropical Pacific mean SSTs in the models.  \n61  \n62 1. Introduction  \n63 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a complex phenomenon that involves  \n64 wide ranges of different patterns, amplitudes and temporal evolutions (Kao and Yu  \n65 2009; Capotondi et al. 2015; Wang et al. 2017; Yu et al. 2017; Timmermann et al.  \n66 2018; Yu & Fang 2018) . One important part of the complexity appears in the way that  \n67 one ENSO event transitions to another. An El Niño (La Niña) event can be preceded  \n68 by a La Niña (El Niño) event to result in a cyclic transition, by another El Niño (La 69 Niña) event to become a multi-year transition, or by a neutral (non-ENSO) condition  \n70 to become an episodic transition (Yu & Fang 2018) . ENSO onset mechanisms control  \n71 how anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) are established in the equatorial  \n72 Pacific and play critical roles i","cbCaisSIOAz1JJBd","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaisSIOAz1JJBd","pdf",1380093,25,"English","# Key points\n# Abstract\n# Plain Language Summary\n# 1. Introduction\n## ENSO event transition complexity\n## Two primary onset mechanisms of ENSO\n## Tropical Pacific onset (TP-onset)\n## Subtropical Pacific onset (SP-onset)","[{\"question\":\"How do El Niño and La Niña differ in event-to-event transition complexity?\",\"answer\":\"El Niño is dominated by episodic, cyclic, and multi-year transitions in that order, while La Niña shows the reversed order. This creates a clear asymmetry between warm and cold phases in transition patterns.\"},{\"question\":\"What mechanism is proposed to explain the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña transitions?\",\"answer\":\"A subtropical Pacific onset mechanism is used to explain the difference. It triggers ENSO events via subtropical processes and produces more multi-year transitions for La Niña and more episodic transitions for El Niño due to nonlinear responses to the tropical Pacific mean SST state.\"},{\"question\":\"Why do CMIP5/6 models fail to reproduce La Niña transition complexity?\",\"answer\":\"The models fail because the subtropical onset mechanism is weaker than observed and the tropical Pacific mean SSTs have a cold bias. As a result, CMIP5/6 can simulate El Niño transition complexity but not the La Niña pattern.\"}]","Contrasting transition complexity between El Niño and La Niña - Observations and CMIP5/6 models - June 2020 revised | PDF",63]