[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110862-en":3,"doc-seo-110862-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110862,962075114101,"Seraphina","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/e000253a75eb197efd?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1780044092746381165",8,"Research & Report","Congo, Republic of - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Assessment and Risk Outlook","The Republic of Congo’s overall and external public debt are classified as “in distress,” although the debt outlook is assessed as “sustainable” pending completion of restructuring arrangements with an external commercial creditor and clearance of arrears. An agreement in principle was reached in early 2021 but has not been approved by underlying lenders; about 14% of 2021 bilateral debt service has been rescheduled under the DSSI. Projections link improved liquidity and solvency indicators to debt restructuring, fiscal discipline, higher oil prices, and constrained new external financing on concessional terms. Key risks include PV of public debt-to-GDP breaching benchmarks until 2030 and debt-service-to-revenue exceeding thresholds through 2025, with high vulnerability to negative oil-price shocks. Authorities are encouraged to finalize restructuring, clear domestic arrears, and strengthen debt management while pursuing diversification and fiscal consolidation.","Authorized  \nPublic Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure  \nApproved by:  \nMarcello Estevão and Abebe Adugna (IDA) and Vitaly Kramarenko and Gavin Gray (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| REPUBLIC\u003Cbr> |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In Debt Distress |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In Debt Distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe overall and external debt 1 of the Republic of Congo are classified as “in distress”, pending finalization of debt restructuring agreements with one external commercial creditor and clearance of arrears, but debt is assessed as “sustainable”. For the debt restructuring under discussion, an agreement in principle (AIP) was reached in early 2021 but was not approved by the creditor’s underlying lenders and discussions continue. About 14 percent of the bilateral debt service due in 2021, including to China, has been rescheduled under the DSSI.  \nRestructured debt, fiscal discipline, higher oil prices, and improved debt management—including restricting new external financing to concessional terms—are projected to help all external liquidity and solvency indicators fall below the thresholds by 2026.2 Oil price assumptions (including relatively high medium-term oil prices) and projections of growth in the non-oil economy, coupled with increased debt service (tied to high oil prices), are expected to reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio and support no new accumulation of domestic arrears. Nevertheless, there are major external and overall debt-related risks, as signaled by the PV of public debt to GDP indicator exceeding its benchmark until 2030 and the external debt-service-to revenue breaching its threshold through 2025. Even though the PV of public debt breaches its benchmark extensively, it is assessed as sustainable given that the liquidity risks are mitigated by i) the steady and significant declines in the relevant ratios going forward, ii) availability of financing from Congolese financial markets. Immediate liquidity needs in 2020–21 were also supported by the DSSI. The debt sustainability  \nassessment is highly vulnerable to negative oil price shocks. Tighter conditions in regional markets (CEMAC banking systems) could be a downside risk if the government’s financing needs exceed the current baseline projections. Going forward, the authorities are encouraged to continue pursuing fiscal consolidation, enact policies for diversification to reduce risks and prepare for reduced long-term oil production and demand, finalize the pending restructuring agreement, clear domestic arrears, and continue enhancing debt management.  \n1. The coverage of public debt in this DSA is limited to central government debt but includes oilbacked debt contracted by the national oil company (SNPC), the largest state-owned enterprise. State and local governments in Congo are not allowed to borrow and depend on local taxes and transfers from the central government. Debt from oil-backed pre-financing arrangements contracted with oil traders through SNPC and guaranteed by the central government is included in the analysis and is the main source of non-central government debt. However, the debt of other state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-guaranteed debt of SNPC is not included in this analysis because of limited information on their debt and fiscal performance.1 Staff will continue efforts to compile information on SOEs to improve the scope of the DSA, in line with guidelines under the revised LIC-DSF. Supported by the FY 2021 performance and policy actions (PPA) under the World Bank’s Sustainable Development Finance Policy (SDFP), the authorities are making on-going efforts to address the limited coverage on SOE debt and financial performance. Efforts are also underway to centralize SOE debt information in a single debt database managed by the Congol","cbCaik1JJNTXKywQ","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaik1JJNTXKywQ","pdf",947703,1,25,"English","en",105,"# Overall and External Debt Classification\n## Status: In distress but assessed as sustainable\n## Restructuring progress and DSSI rescheduling\n# Projections to 2026\n## Fiscal discipline and concessional financing restrictions\n## Oil price assumptions and growth in the non-oil economy\n# Key Risks and Benchmark Breaches\n## PV of public debt-to-GDP benchmark exceedance\n## External debt-service-to-revenue threshold breach\n## Vulnerability to oil price shocks\n# Policy Recommendations and Next Steps\n## Fiscal consolidation, diversification, and arrears clearance\n## Finalizing restructuring agreements and debt management strengthening\n# Coverage Limits and Social/Contingent Liabilities\n## Central government scope and oil-backed debt inclusion\n## SOE debt coverage limitations and ongoing compilation efforts\n## Social arrears and contingent liability stress test","[{\"question\":\"How are Congo’s overall and external debts classified in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"They are classified as “in distress,” with pending finalization of restructuring and clearance of arrears. Despite this, the debt is assessed as “sustainable.”\"},{\"question\":\"What factors are expected to improve external liquidity and solvency indicators by 2026?\",\"answer\":\"Debt restructuring, fiscal discipline, higher oil prices, and improved debt management are projected to bring liquidity and solvency ratios below thresholds by 2026, supported by limiting new external financing to concessional terms.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is the debt sustainability assessment highly vulnerable to shocks?\",\"answer\":\"The assessment is highly vulnerable to negative oil price shocks, which can worsen liquidity conditions and trigger additional benchmark breaches. Tighter regional market conditions could further increase downside risks.\"}]",1784487438,63,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"congo-republic-of-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-assessment-and-risk-outlook","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/congo-republic-of-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-assessment-and-risk-outlook/110862/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"How are Congo’s overall and external debts classified in the analysis?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"They are classified as “in distress,” with pending finalization of restructuring and clearance of arrears. Despite this, the debt is assessed as “sustainable.”","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"What factors are expected to improve external liquidity and solvency indicators by 2026?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Debt restructuring, fiscal discipline, higher oil prices, and improved debt management are projected to bring liquidity and solvency ratios below thresholds by 2026, supported by limiting new external financing to concessional terms.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Why is the debt sustainability assessment highly vulnerable to shocks?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The assessment is highly vulnerable to negative oil price shocks, which can worsen liquidity conditions and trigger additional benchmark breaches. Tighter regional market conditions could further increase downside risks.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]