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Using scenario thinking as a disciplined, imaginative modeling method (focused on the year 2020), the document explains why scenarios matter, how change and uncertainty arise across socio-technical domains, and what preliminary outcomes support the effort to anticipate discontinuities.",{"@graph":14,"@context":73},[15,34,56],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/","Research & 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\nUNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA , BERKELEY  \nINTRODUCTION 1  \nEXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5  \nSCENARIO 1: THE NEW NORMAL 8  \nSCENARIO 2 : OMEGA 2 8  \nSCENARIO 3: BUBBLE 2.0 50  \nSCENARIO 4: INTENTIONAL INTERNET OF THINGS 70  \nSCENARIO 5: SENSORIUM 92  \nCONCLUSION 114  \nThe University of California, Berkeley Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity was founded to develop and shape the next generation of cybersecurity research and practice based on a long-term vision of the internet and the future of digital technology.  \nCybersecurity, in our view, will encompass the key issues—those important enough to deserve the word “security”—that emerge at the intersection between technology and people. Attacking and defending today’s (and tomorrow’s) computers and networks is a part of that story, but only a part. In the not-so-distant future, most things (and most people) will be connected to digital networks.“Cyber” will become a baseline assumption.“Security” will also undergo a reformulation much like what happened to “national security”after the end of the Cold War, in which a term once focused on superpower nuclear deterrence grew to encompass a much broader agenda, including environmental security, economic security, and “human” security.  \nFor these reasons we believe the cybersecurity research and policy communities will soon confront a much more diverse set of problems and opportunities than they do today. To shed light on that emerging landscape, we have developed a disciplined, imaginative approach to modeling what cybersecurity could mean in the future (which we define for purposes of this report as the year 2020).1 Our goal is to identify emerging issues that will become more important; issues on the table today that may become less salient or critical; and new issues that researchers and decision-makers a few years from now will have wished people in the research and policy communities had noticed—and begun to act on—earlier.  \nTo this end, we are using scenario thinking, a proven methodology for investigating expansively and purposefully how cybersecurity future(s) might unfold. Scenarios traditionally have been used by organizations to develop long-term strategies; this may be one of the first attempts to use scenarios in an academic context to help shape a policy-relevant research agenda.  \nIn this Introduction, we review why and how we engaged in scenario thinking, the methods we employed, and the preliminary outcomes ofthat process.  \nSCENARIO THINKING AND THE FUTURE OF CYBERSECURITY: WHAT, WHY, AND HOW  \nScenario thinking is a tool for ordering arguments about alternative future environments in which today’s and tomorrow’s decisions will play out. Whether used for strategic planning or identifying research priorities, scenario thinking is based on three core propositions.  \n1. Change and surprise in fast-moving socio-technical environments are often a consequence of unexpected and/or unexamined permutations among seemingly disconnected or unrelated forces of change. The world is never shaped by “just” technology, human behavior, regulation, or business models; rather, it is shaped by all of these at once, in overlapping fashion. In other words, many drivers of change work together to create new opportunities and constraints, causing new problems to arise and others to recede.  \n2. Some of the most important driving forces of change come from diverse domains—healthcare, markets, social norms, and the like—outside the immediate, day-to-day, tactical environment where cybersecurity experts and organizations naturally tend to focus. Analysis of these driving forces often needs to be “stretched” further than is comfortable in order to identify edge-cases where potential sources of change become most visible.  \n3. New, relevant, and sometimes inspirational research programs and policy concepts develop out of constructive engagement with models that incorporate these multiple dimensions of uncertainty and emph","cbCaiji46bMD70ny","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiji46bMD70ny","pdf",6259648,128,"English","# Introduction\n# Executive Summary\n# Scenario 1: The New Normal\n# Scenario 2: Omega 2\n# Scenario 3: Bubble 2.0\n# Scenario 4: Intentional Internet of Things\n# Scenario 5: Sensorium\n# Conclusion","[{\"question\":\"What is the report’s purpose in shaping long-term cybersecurity research and practice?\",\"answer\":\"It aims to identify emerging cybersecurity issues that will become more important, anticipate what may fade in relevance, and help researchers and decision-makers act earlier on new opportunities and risks.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the report use scenario thinking instead of predicting the future?\",\"answer\":\"Scenario thinking treats scenarios as hypotheses rather than predictions, helping compare distinct possibilities and examine how discontinuities could change what cybersecurity means.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the report define cybersecurity’s scope beyond technical systems?\",\"answer\":\"It defines cybersecurity as covering security-relevant issues at the intersection of technology and people, shaped by technology, human behavior, regulation, and business models working together.\"}]","CLTC Report - Introduction and Executive Summary | PDF",1789668940,323]