[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-118254-en":3,"doc-seo-118254-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":27,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},118254,687197207639,"Asher","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Citizen Participation and Political Trust in Latin America and the Caribbean - A Machine Learning Approach","This paper examines how citizen participation relates to political trust in Latin America and the Caribbean, leveraging machine learning methods with Latinobarómetro 2020 data. It contrasts stealth democracy’s claim of an inverse link with deliberative democracy’s expectation of the opposite. Estimates indicate that trust in national governments or other institutions does not play a dominant, consistent role in driving participation. Participation is instead more strongly associated with interest in politics, lived experience such as crime and discrimination, and socioeconomic factors.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPolicy Research Working Paper 10335  \nCitizen Participation and Political Trust in Latin America and the Caribbean  \nA Machine Learning Approach  \nNatalia Pecorari  \nJose Cuesta  \nSocial Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice March 2023  \nPolicy Research Working Paper 10335  \nAbstract  \nThis paper advances the understanding of the linkages between trust in government and citizen participation in Latin America and the Caribbean, using machine learning techniques and Latinobarómetro 2020 data. Proponents of the concept of stealth democracy argue that an inverse relationship exists between political trust and citizen participation, while deliberative democracy theorists claim the opposite. The paper estimates that trust in national governments or other governmental institutions plays neither a dominant nor consistent role in driving political participation. Instead, interest in politics, personal  \ncircumstances such as experience of crime and discrimination, and socioeconomic aspects appear to drive citizen participation much more strongly in the LatinAmerica and the Caribbean region. This is true across models imposing simple linear trends (logit and lasso) and others allowing for nonlinear and complex relations (decision trees) . The results vary across the type of participation—signing a petition, participation in demonstrations, or involvement in a community issue—which the paper attributes to increasing net costs associated with participation.  \nThis paper is a product of the Social Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice. It is part ofa larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at [http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be](http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be)[ ](http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be)[contacted at npecorari@worldbank.org](contacted at npecorari@worldbank.org).  \nThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.  \nProduced by the Research Support Team  \nCitizen Participation and Political Trust in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Machine Learning  \nApproach  \nNatalia Pecorari 1 and Jose Cuesta1,2 1World Bank, Social Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice  \n2 Georgetown University, School of Foreign Service  \n∗[Corresponding author: ](Corresponding author: npecorari@worldbank.org)[npecorari@worldbank.org](Corresponding author: npecorari@worldbank.org)  \nKeywords: Citizen participation; political trust; machine learning; Latin America and the Caribbean  \nJEL Codes: D7, P4  \n1. Introduction  \nIn recent years, the “three Cs”—COVID-19, climate change, and conflict—have exacerbated long-standing development gaps and further destabilized societies around the world. During the pandemic, the number of the extremely poor grew from 648 million to 719 million globally (World Bank, 2022) . Social unrest is rising, especially in middle-income countries, interpersonal trust is at its lowest recorded level globally, and the fallout from COVID-19 has driven the largest increase in global inequality since the Second World War (Yonzan et al., 2022; ACLED, 2022) . The world is becoming more divided and less equal: one in three peop","cbCaifsjIOid2yWE","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaifsjIOid2yWE","pdf",2659824,1,43,"English","en",105,"# Abstract\n# Introduction\n## Development gaps and social destabilization\n## Complexity of development processes\n## Methodological challenges in analytics and policy","[{\"question\":\"What data and methods does the paper use to analyze trust and participation?\",\"answer\":\"The study uses Latinobarómetro 2020 data and machine learning techniques, comparing simple linear approaches with nonlinear models such as decision trees.\"},{\"question\":\"Does political trust in government consistently predict citizen participation?\",\"answer\":\"No. The paper finds trust in national governments or other institutions plays neither a dominant nor consistent role in driving political participation.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors drive citizen participation more strongly in the region?\",\"answer\":\"The results highlight interest in politics, personal circumstances such as experiences of crime and discrimination, and socioeconomic aspects as stronger drivers.\"}]","Citizen Participation and Political Trust in Latin America and the Caribbean - A Machine Learning Approach | PDF",1785682655,108,{"code":4,"msg":31,"data":32},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":33,"title":13,"keywords":34,"description":14,"schema_data":35,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":28},"citizen-participation-and-political-trust-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean-a-machine-learning-approach","",{"@graph":36,"@context":85},[37,54,68],{"@type":38,"itemListElement":39},"BreadcrumbList",[40,44,48,51],{"item":41,"name":42,"@type":43,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":45,"name":46,"@type":43,"position":47},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":49,"name":12,"@type":43,"position":50},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":43,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/citizen-participation-and-political-trust-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean-a-machine-learning-approach/118254/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":41,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-08-02",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What data and methods does the paper use to analyze trust and participation?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The study uses Latinobarómetro 2020 data and machine learning techniques, comparing simple linear approaches with nonlinear models such as decision trees.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Does political trust in government consistently predict citizen participation?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"No. The paper finds trust in national governments or other institutions plays neither a dominant nor consistent role in driving political participation.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What factors drive citizen participation more strongly in the region?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The results highlight interest in politics, personal circumstances such as experiences of crime and discrimination, and socioeconomic aspects as stronger drivers.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":47,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":46,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]