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They do not necessarily represent the views of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand or any other organisation with which the writer may be affiliated.  \nFor further information or additional copies of the Discussion Papers please contact:  \nThe Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand  \nVictoria University of Wellington PO Box 600 Wellington New Zealand.  \nTel: 64 4 463 5434  \nFax: 64 4 463 5437  \nEmail: [css@vuw.ac.nz](css@vuw.ac.nz)  \n[http://www.victoria.ac.nz/css/](http://www.victoria.ac.nz/css/)  \n© Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand Victoria University of Wellington.  \n2012  \nISSN 2230-5378  \nCover photo: New Zealand's Prime Minister John Key (L) with China's Vice President Xi Jinping at an Official dinner at Government House in Auckland for Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, 17 June 2010.(Official photo of the New Zealand Government image gallery)  \nDesktop publishing: Synonne Rajanayagam  \nChina’s rise and New Zealand’s interests: a policy primer for 2030  \nChris Elder and Robert Ayson  \nDiscussion Paper No.11, 2012  \nPublished by  \nCentre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand Victoria University of Wellington  \nCSS Discussion Paper No.11, 2012 ii  \nChina’s rise and New Zealand’s interests: a policy primer for 2030  \nChris Elder and Robert Ayson  \nExecutive summary  \nThe emergence of China as an international power in the early decades of the 21st century is widely accepted as the consequence of economic, political and military trends which are already apparent today. The familiar patterns of power centred on western predominance and American leadership will no longer offer the reassurance they once did.  \nDealing with a prosperous and powerful China, which is by no means a novelty in world history, is commonly accepted as the main foreign policy adjustment that needs to be made by all countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The effects of China’s rise on the global and Asia-Pacific regional order are likely to be the main preoccupations for New Zealand foreign policy-makers in the next twenty years and more.  \nIn this study, we seek to do three things. First, we examine what we believe China’s economic, political and military trajectory will resemble between now and the early 2030s. Second, we contemplate the effects that this trajectory for China will have on international institutions and Asia-Pacific regional affairs. Third, we propose a series of issues that New Zealand’s policymakers will need to bear in mind.  \nIn terms of the trajectory of China’s power, there is general consensus that China’s economy will continue to grow strongly, even if there are some significant challenges for its leaders to negotiate. The size of China’s population means its aggregate growth will surpass that of the USA long before GDP per capita equalises with that of the USA or other western economies. As both its wealth and external interests expand, China will also develop stronger military capabilities to defend those interests and to match its sense of prestige. China will be able to project power further from its boundaries, and friction with neighbours and regional powers may intensify.  \nThe manner of China’s assertion of its power will result in part from its style of government. Pressures on the Chinese Communist Party’s rule may grow from an expanding middle class and from any significant diminution of economic grow","cbCaisyEP94Wjy8s","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaisyEP94Wjy8s","pdf",1662490,"English","# Executive summary\n## China’s power trajectory\n## Governance and political change\n## International influence and institutions\n## Implications for New Zealand policy-makers","[{\"question\":\"What three objectives does the study set out to achieve?\",\"answer\":\"It examines China’s economic, political and military trajectory toward the early 2030s, considers effects on international institutions and Asia-Pacific affairs, and proposes a set of issues New Zealand policymakers must consider.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the paper expect China’s economic and military trajectory to develop?\",\"answer\":\"It expects continued strong aggregate growth despite challenges, followed by expanded military capabilities to defend expanding interests and project power further from China’s borders.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the paper suggest are the main challenges for New Zealand policymakers?\",\"answer\":\"It argues the key considerations are likely to be political judgements rather than economic consequence or strategic concern, requiring domestic understanding and adaptation to China’s growing South Pacific influence.\"}]","China’s rise and New Zealand’s interests - a policy primer for 2030 - Discussion Paper No.11 - 2012 | PDF",1792209618,76]