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The study combines a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach with broad domestic activity measures and narrative evidence to separate supply versus demand components of China’s growth. It then evaluates how GDP (and firm revenue) in partner economies responds. Findings indicate stronger reactions to Chinese supply shocks, synchronized slowdowns in China with declines abroad, and heterogeneous effects driven by trade input-output linkages.",{"@graph":69,"@context":122},[70,84,105],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/china-spillovers-aggregate-and-firm-level-evidence-research-paper/501861/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/china-spillovers-aggregate-and-firm-level-evidence-research-paper/501861.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"asba","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-23","2026-10-03",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":52},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",{"@type":106,"mainEntity":107},"FAQPage",[108,114,118],{"name":109,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":111},"How does the paper distinguish supply-driven versus demand-driven shocks in China?","Question",{"text":112,"@type":113},"It uses an SVAR framework together with broad measures of domestic activity and narrative evidence to separate supply and demand components of Chinese growth.","Answer",{"name":115,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":116},"What do the results say about global GDP responses to Chinese shocks?",{"text":117,"@type":113},"Global GDP responds more to Chinese supply shocks than to Chinese demand shocks.",{"name":119,"@type":110,"acceptedAnswer":120},"Do Chinese slowdowns affect partner countries and firms differently?",{"text":121,"@type":113},"Yes. Both supply and demand slowdowns in China are followed by declines in partner country GDP and firm revenue, especially where trade linkages to China are stronger.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":124,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":126,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":128,"site_id":62},501861,1791051202,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":131},{"doc_id":128,"user_id":132,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":52,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":139,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":145},3985747872567,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c","DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES  \nDP21111  \nCHINA SPILLOVERS: AGGREGATE AND FIRM-LEVEL EVIDENCE  \nAlexander Copestake, Melih Firat, Davide Furceri and Chris Redl  \nINTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS AND FINANCE  \nISSN 0265-8003  \nCHINA SPILLOVERS: AGGREGATE AND FIRM  \nLEVEL EVIDENCE  \nAlexander Copestake, Melih Firat, Davide Furceri and Chris Redl  \nDiscussion Paper DP21111  \nPublished 02 February 2026  \nSubmitted 01 February 2026  \nCentre for Economic Policy Research  \n187 boulevard Saint-Germain, 75007 Paris, France  \n2 Coldbath Square, London EC1R 5HL  \nTel: +44 (0)20 7183 8801  \n[www.cepr.org](www.cepr.org)  \nThis Discussion Paper is issued under the auspices of the Centre’s research programmes:  \n International Macroeconomics and Finance  \nAny opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Research disseminated by CEPR may include views on policy, but the Centre itself takes no institutional policy positions.  \nThe Centre for Economic Policy Research was established in 1983 as an educational charity, to promote independent analysis and public discussion of open economies and the relations among them. It is pluralist and non-partisan, bringing economic research to bear on the analysis of medium-and long-run policy questions.  \nThese Discussion Papers often represent preliminary or incomplete work, circulated to encourage discussion and comment. Citation and use of such a paper should take account of its provisional character.  \nCopyright: Alexander Copestake, Melih Firat, Davide Furceri and Chris Redl  \nCHINA SPILLOVERS: AGGREGATE AND FIRM  \nLEVEL EVIDENCE  \nAbstract  \nWe estimate the spillovers of demand-and supply-driven shocks in China to foreign countries and firms. We combine a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) framework with a broad-based measure of domestic economic activity in China and narrative evidence on domestic shocks to distinguish supply versus demand components of Chinese growth. We then assess the responses to such shocks of GDP (revenue) in other countries (firms) . The results suggest that: (i) global GDP responds more to Chinese supply shocks than to Chinese demand shocks; (ii) both supply and demand slowdowns in China are followed by declines in partner country GDP and firm revenue, especially in countries and firms with stronger trade linkages to China; and (iii) Chinese supply shocks have larger impacts on countries and firms with relatively stronger input linkages to China, while Chinese demand shocks have larger impacts on countries and firms with relatively stronger output linkages to China.  \nJEL Classification: F14  \nKeywords: Network spillovers  \n[Alexander Copestake-acopestake@imf.org](Alexander Copestake-acopestake@imf.org)[ ](Alexander Copestake-acopestake@imf.org)International Monetary Fund  \nMelih [Firat-mfirat@imf.org](Firat-mfirat@imf.org)  \nInternational Monetary Fund  \n[Davide Furceri-dfurceri@imf.org](Davide Furceri-dfurceri@imf.org)  \nInternational Monetary Fund and CEPR  \n[Chris Redl -credl@imf.org](Chris Redl -credl@imf.org)[ ](Chris Redl -credl@imf.org)International Monetary Fund  \nChina Spillovers: Aggregate and Firm-Level Evidence ° Alexander Copestake±, Melih Firat ×, Davide Furceri ∂ and Chris Redl÷  \nABSTRACT  \nWe estimate the spillovers of demand-and supply-driven shocks in China to foreign countries and firms. We combine a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) framework with a broad-based measure of domestic economic activity in China and narrative evidence on domestic shocks to distinguish supply versus demand components of Chinese growth. We then assess the responses to such shocks of GDP (revenue) in other countries (firms) . The results suggest that: (i) global GDP responds more to Chinese supply shocks than to Chinese demand shocks; (ii) both supply and demand slowdowns in China are followed by declines in partner country GDP and firm revenue, especially in countries and firms with stronger trade linkages to Chin","cbCaibE3IurOBTpn","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaibE3IurOBTpn","pdf",2505671,69,"English","# Abstract\n# Introduction\n## China’s role in the global economy\n# Methodology and identification\n## SVAR framework and shock decomposition\n# Empirical results\n## GDP and firm revenue responses","[{\"question\":\"How does the paper distinguish supply-driven versus demand-driven shocks in China?\",\"answer\":\"It uses an SVAR framework together with broad measures of domestic activity and narrative evidence to separate supply and demand components of Chinese growth.\"},{\"question\":\"What do the results say about global GDP responses to Chinese shocks?\",\"answer\":\"Global GDP responds more to Chinese supply shocks than to Chinese demand shocks.\"},{\"question\":\"Do Chinese slowdowns affect partner countries and firms differently?\",\"answer\":\"Yes. Both supply and demand slowdowns in China are followed by declines in partner country GDP and firm revenue, especially where trade linkages to China are stronger.\"}]","CHINA SPILLOVERS: AGGREGATE AND FIRM-LEVEL EVIDENCE - Research paper | PDF",1791025823,174]