[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111736-en":3,"doc-seo-111736-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111736,1099514067438,"River Wang","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/100002539ee87300030?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1780474512215547542",8,"Research & Report","Chad - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Risk Assessment","Assessment of Chad’s external and overall public debt assigns a high risk of external debt distress and high overall risk, despite improvements in the debt outlook and a mechanically moderate rating. Judgment is applied because baseline projections face significant risks and uncertainty. The proposed Extended Credit Facility program targets implementation of the 2025–2030 National Development Plan and strengthened debt sustainability, while uncertainty persists around non-oil revenue measures, oil prices, spending containment, and declining external financing amid trade and geopolitical tensions.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA) , and Vitaliy Kramarenko and Koshy Mathai (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| CHAD: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes |\n\nDespite improvements to the debt outlook and a mechanical moderate external and overall debt distress rating, Chad’s external and overall public debt continues to be assessed at high risk of distress, with the application of judgment due to the risks surrounding the baseline projections.1 The proposed economic program, which would be supported by an Extended Credit Facility, aims to implement Chad’s new National Development Plan (2025-2030) while strengthening Chad’s debt sustainability. However, significant uncertainty remains , regarding the authorities’ ability to fully execute the proposed policies if risks materialize. Among these risks, there is uncertainty regarding the non-oil revenue enhancing measures, oil prices, and spending containing measures in the program, and external financing is projected to decline, reflecting trade and geopolitical tensions. Until the authorities begin implementing the proposed economic program, monitored through prior actions, quantitative targets, and structural benchmarks, and effectively build the necessary buffers to absorb potential adverse shocks, judgement will be applied to continue assessing the risk of external debt distress as high.  \n1 Chad’s composite indicator of 2 .44, which is based on the April 2024 WEO and the June 2024 CPIA, signals a weak debtcarrying capacity.  \n1. Public debt coverage includes central government debt, as well as government guaranteed external debt owed by the public oil company (Société des Hydrocarbures du Tchad or SHT) . Almost all other public sector entities (including other state-owned enterprises—SOEs) do not have access to external financing , except for the N’Djamena Oil Refinery (Société de Raffinage de N’Djaména, or SRN), which has two loans with CNPC Finance and EXIM Bank China. The SRN is minority government-owned (40 percent share) with managerial independence from the government; its debt, which is not in arrears according to the authorities, is not integrated in the perimeter of the DSA. Since the last exercise in the 2024 Article IV staff report, the DSA considers external debt on a residency basis for loans only. Therefore, CFAF-denominated loans contracted with the regional development bank (BDEAC)2 and with bilateral creditors in the currency union (Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and the Republic of Congo) are considered external debt. Debt owed to Angola, which is being repaid in kind3 , is also classified as external debt.  \nPublic debt coverage  \n Subsectors of the public sector Check box   \n1 Central government  \n2 State and local government  \n3 Other elements in the general government  \n4 o/w: Social security fund  \n5 o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)  \n6 Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs)  \n7 Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government)  \n8 Non-guaranteed SOE debt  \nX  \nX  \nX  \nPublic debt coverage and the magnitude of the contingent liability tailored stress test  \n1 The country's coverage of public debt  \n2 Other elements of the general government not captured in 1.  \n3 SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/  \n4 PPP  \n5 Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value) Total (2+3+4+5) (in percent of GDP)  \nThe central government, central bank, government-guaranteed debt  \n1.5  \n2  \n35  \n5  \nDefault  \npercent of GDP  \npercent of GDP  \npercent of PPP stock  \npercent of GDP  \nUsed for the analysis  \n1.5  \n5.5  \n0.0  ","cbCaia3xmyI9Qolb","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaia3xmyI9Qolb","pdf",667159,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress\n## Key judgment and baseline uncertainties\n## Coverage of public and external debt\n## Contingent liability tailored stress test","[{\"question\":\"What is the assessed risk level for Chad’s external debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates the risk of external debt distress as High, with judgment applied despite a mechanically moderate baseline rating.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is judgment used in continuing the external debt distress assessment?\",\"answer\":\"Uncertainty surrounds baseline projections and the authorities’ ability to fully execute policies, including risks linked to revenue, oil prices, spending containment, and declining external financing.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the document define the coverage of public debt and external debt?\",\"answer\":\"Public debt coverage includes central government debt and government-guaranteed external debt owed by the public oil company (SHT). Some other public sector entities lack external financing access, and the DSA uses a residency basis for certain external loans.\"}]",1784491494,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"chad-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/chad-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-assessment/111736/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the assessed risk level for Chad’s external debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The analysis rates the risk of external debt distress as High, with judgment applied despite a mechanically moderate baseline rating.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why is judgment used in continuing the external debt distress assessment?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Uncertainty surrounds baseline projections and the authorities’ ability to fully execute policies, including risks linked to revenue, oil prices, spending containment, and declining external financing.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How does the document define the coverage of public debt and external debt?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Public debt coverage includes central government debt and government-guaranteed external debt owed by the public oil company (SHT). Some other public sector entities lack external financing access, and the DSA uses a residency basis for certain external loans.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]