[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110016-en":3,"doc-seo-110016-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},110016,13056703020460,"Valentina","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/be000253dac470eee5d?_k=1778207105932848923",8,"Research & Report","Chad - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - July 2020","Joint World Bank-IMF debt sustainability analysis for Chad updates the April 2020 assessment using the latest macroeconomic outlook. External and overall debt distress risks remain high despite baseline sustainability, with uncertainty amplified by unfinanced fiscal and external financing gaps for several years. The analysis incorporates pandemic-driven deterioration, donor support, and revised growth projections, and evaluates DSSI-related reprofiling and arrears clearance plans. Stress tests highlight potential indicator breaches and vulnerability around oil and exports shocks.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nCHAD  \nJOINT WORLD BANK-IMF DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS  \nJuly 2020  \nPrepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA) David Owen and Gavin Gray (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Chad: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis1 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High2 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgement | No |\n| Macroeconomic projections | The previous DSA in April 2020 reflected reduced growth and significant deterioration in fiscal and external balances. The current DSA reflects a further downward revision to growth of 0.7 percentage point in 2020, with a deterioration of 2.3 percentage points in fiscal and 0.9 percentage points in external balances. The shock is still expected to be temporary and a gradual recovery is forecast in 2021. |\n| Financing strategy | Since the last DSA, Chad has identified significant donor support for 2020 and oil revenue has surprised on the upside. The authorities are expected to request a successor IMF arrangement later this year. |\n| Realism tools flagged | Large unexpected increase in public debt in the last 5 years. |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | High |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA | High |\n| 1 The debt coverage has expanded since the last DSA (April 2020) to include domestic arrears in the domestic debt stock (5.8 percent of GDP). Previously domestic arrears only appeared in the contingent risk analysis. Accordingly,“other elements of general government” in the contingent liability tailored test has been reduced to zero\u003Cbr>2 With a score of 2 .47, Chad’s composite indicator, which is based on the October 2019 WEO and the 2018 CPIA, signals a weak debt-carrying capacity. |  |\n\nThis debt sustainability analysis (DSA) updates the joint World Bank-IMF analysis of April 2020 to reflect the most recent outlook. Debt remains sustainable under the baseline forecast, but uncertainty remains high. For instance, the outlook includes large unfinanced fiscal and external financing gaps for several years. Historically the authorities have been able to service debt at baseline forecast levels, and program performance under the ECF suggests a strong commitment to obligations. In sum, the debt sustainability picture has not appreciably changed since April. Chad’s risks of external and overall debt distress remain high.  \nThe macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated with the pandemic’s more pronounced presence in Chad. In 2020, growth is modestly weaker, but Q1 oil revenues—which are based on 2019 oil exports—have surprised to the upside and donor support has crystalized. In particular, the World Bank i) disbursed (US$ 16.95 million) to prevent, detect, and respond to health threat posed by COVID-19; ii) is preparing a COVID-19 education project; and iii) is preparing a Development Policy Operation in response to the short and long term challenges faced by the country. In the medium term, oil price forecasts have changed very little since the last DSA. The debt sustainability analysis is based on projected continued fiscal prudence and an increase in non-oil revenues after the pandemic crisis abates The RCF request comprises the only substantial change on the external debt side.  \nChad requested treatment under the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) from all creditors, public and private, and intends to adhere to the commitments noted in the LOI. The DSA assumes all official bilateral creditors from the G-20 and Paris Club, plus Kuwait and the UAE, will provide debt reprofiling in 2020, totaling CFAF 7.5 billion. The authorities have begun clearing arrears in accordance with the government clearance strategy adopted in January. Clearance in 20","cbCaihoxwAm0fkpG","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaihoxwAm0fkpG","pdf",584912,3,1,10,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n## Key Risk Ratings\n## Macroeconomic Projections and Assumptions\n## Financing and Restructuring Measures\n## Baseline and Stress Scenario Results","[{\"question\":\"How do the risk ratings change compared with the April 2020 DSA?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis concludes that the overall debt sustainability picture has not appreciably changed since April, with external risk and overall risk of debt distress remaining high.\"},{\"question\":\"What macroeconomic revisions are reflected in the July 2020 DSA?\",\"answer\":\"The updated DSA reflects a further downward revision to growth in 2020 and deterioration in both fiscal and external balances, while expecting temporary shock effects and gradual recovery in 2021.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the DSA incorporate DSSI and arrears clearance plans?\",\"answer\":\"It assumes creditors provide debt reprofiling in 2020 and that the authorities begin clearing arrears under the government clearance strategy adopted in January, with subsequent assumptions on cash payments of arrears.\"}]","Chad - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - July 2020 | PDF",1784483483,25,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"chad-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-july-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,51],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/chad-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-july-2020/110016/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"How do the risk ratings change compared with the April 2020 DSA?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The analysis concludes that the overall debt sustainability picture has not appreciably changed since April, with external risk and overall risk of debt distress remaining high.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"What macroeconomic revisions are reflected in the July 2020 DSA?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"The updated DSA reflects a further downward revision to growth in 2020 and deterioration in both fiscal and external balances, while expecting temporary shock effects and gradual recovery in 2021.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"How does the DSA incorporate DSSI and arrears clearance plans?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"It assumes creditors provide debt reprofiling in 2020 and that the authorities begin clearing arrears under the government clearance strategy adopted in January, with subsequent assumptions on cash payments of arrears.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":134},"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]