[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111488-en":3,"doc-seo-111488-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111488,8796095462418,"Noah","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80000253c1241d02b47?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1778826106357471780",8,"Research & Report","Chad - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - High Risk of Debt Distress Assessment","Joint World Bank–IMF debt sustainability analysis for Chad finds that, despite significant improvements under the G20 Common Framework and faster repayments to the main private creditor, both external debt and overall public debt remain at high risk of distress. Judgment is applied due to uncertainty in medium- to long-term debt dynamics. A baseline scenario suggests sustainability with possible transition toward moderate risk, while an adverse no-reform scenario could resume debt accumulation from 2025 and breach multiple thresholds from 2027 onward.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA) , and Vitaliy Kramarenko and Fabian Valencia (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| CHAD: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes |\n\nDespite significant improvement, Chad’s external and overall public debt continues to be assessed at high risk of distress, with the application of judgment due to uncertainty on the medium-to long-term debt dynamics.1  \nThe implementation of the debt treatment under the G20 Common Framework and accelerated repayments to the government’s main private creditor have significantly lowered short-term debt service and moderated the risk of distress. However, the shift from a currency-based to a residency-based debt coverage for loans only has mechanically increased the external debt stock and debt service, leading to a breach of the 14-percent external debt service-to-revenue ratio threshold in 2024.  \nUnder the baseline scenario, which relies on continued reform implementation, mechanical signals suggest a moderate risk of debt distress. In the medium to long term, debt should remain sustainable with an expected transition to a moderate risk of distress , as reforms are implemented and related uncertainty dissipates.  \nControlling public spending, improving revenue mobilization, and identifying additional external funding sources with concessional terms are necessary to safeguard debt sustainability and promote accelerated development. Conversely, under an adverse scenario of no reforms and fiscal adjustment, the projected fiscal slippages, comparable to the 2023 fiscal stance, could lead to a resumption of debt accumulation in 2025, possibly under non-  \n1 With a score of 2 .34, Chad’s composite indicator, which is based on the October 2024 WEO and the June 2024 CPIA, signals a weak debt-carrying capacity.  \nconcessional terms for external debt. In this scenario, from 2027 onwards, all public and external debt burden metrics would rise substantially, exceeding their thresholds and jeopardizing debt sustainability. Owing to of the large significant divergence in between debt trajectories under in the two scenarios considered in the analysis, a judgment is applied to maintain the assessment of a high risk of debt distress. The adoption by the parliament of a 2025 budget law and a continued fiscal prudence would significantly reduce the uncertainty surrounding baseline projections and could warrant a moderate debt assessment at the next review.  \n1. Public debt coverage includes central government debt, as well as government guaranteed external debt owed by the public oil company (Société des Hydrocarbures du Tchad or SHT) . Almost all other public sector entities (including other state-owned enterprises—SOEs) do not have access to external financing. The exception is the N’Djamena Oil Refinery (Société de Raffinage de N’Djaména, or SRN), which has two loans with CNPC Finance and EXIM Bank China. The SRN is minority governmentowned (40 percent share) with managerial independence from the government. Contrary to previous DSAs , which used to define external debt on a currency basis, this DSA considers external debt on a residency basis for loans only, following Debt Sustainability Framework best practices.2 Therefore, CFAFdenominated loans contracted with the regional development bank (BDEAC) 3 and with bilateral creditors in the currency union (Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and the Republic of Congo) are now considered external debt. Debt owed to Angola, which is being repaid in kind4 , is also classified as external debt.  \n2. The contingent liability stress test accounts for vulnerabilities associated with nonguaranteed SO","cbCaip0vevHPjn8A","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaip0vevHPjn8A","pdf",773619,1,24,"English","en",105,"# Summary Risk Assessment\n## Baseline Scenario and Judgment\n## Adverse Scenario and Threshold Breaches\n# Public Debt Coverage and Methodology\n## Residency-Based External Debt Definition\n## Contingent Liability Stress Tests","[{\"question\":\"Why does the assessment remain high risk despite debt treatment progress?\",\"answer\":\"External and overall public debt continues to be assessed at high risk because uncertainty persists in medium- to long-term debt dynamics, requiring judgment even after improvements.\"},{\"question\":\"What mechanism increased the external debt stock and debt service in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"Shifting from currency-based to residency-based debt coverage for loans only mechanically increases the external debt stock and debt service, causing a breach of the 14-percent external debt service-to-revenue threshold in 2024.\"},{\"question\":\"How do baseline and adverse scenarios differ for debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline scenario with continued reforms, signals point to sustainability and a potential transition toward moderate risk. Under an adverse scenario with no reforms and no fiscal adjustment, projected fiscal slippages could restart debt accumulation from 2025 and, from 2027 onward, raise debt burden metrics substantially beyond thresholds.\"}]",1784490358,60,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"chad-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-of-debt-distress-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/chad-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-of-debt-distress-assessment/111488/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"Why does the assessment remain high risk despite debt treatment progress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"External and overall public debt continues to be assessed at high risk because uncertainty persists in medium- to long-term debt dynamics, requiring judgment even after improvements.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"What mechanism increased the external debt stock and debt service in the analysis?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Shifting from currency-based to residency-based debt coverage for loans only mechanically increases the external debt stock and debt service, causing a breach of the 14-percent external debt service-to-revenue threshold in 2024.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How do baseline and adverse scenarios differ for debt sustainability?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Under the baseline scenario with continued reforms, signals point to sustainability and a potential transition toward moderate risk. Under an adverse scenario with no reforms and no fiscal adjustment, projected fiscal slippages could restart debt accumulation from 2025 and, from 2027 onward, raise debt burden metrics substantially beyond thresholds.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":28,"slug":108},5,"Comic","comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]