[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110751-en":3,"doc-seo-110751-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110751,1099514067438,"River Wang","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/100002539ee87300030?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1780474512215547542",8,"Research & Report","Chad - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Risk of external debt distress","Chad’s debt sustainability has deteriorated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with rising downside risks driven by uncertainty around the pandemic’s duration and intensity and by oil price volatility. External liquidity pressures increased after a 2020 downward revision of exports, lowering oil revenues and breaching the external debt service-to-revenue threshold over a prolonged period. Identified domestic and external funding sources remain insufficient even with ambitious fiscal consolidation, leading to an assessed unsustainable public debt situation and ongoing external debt distress.","February 2022  \nPublic Disclosure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAbebe Adugna, Marcello Estevão (IDA) and Vitaliy Kramarenko, Gavin Gray (IMF),  \nPrepared jointly by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| CHAD: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | In Debt Distress 1 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | In Debt Distress |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Unsustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nChad’s debt ratios have worsened since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and downside risks have increased given the uncertainties around the intensity and duration of the pandemic and oil price volatility. On the external debt side, liquidity pressures have increased given a downward revision in exports in 2020 which implied lower oil revenues. As a result, in the prerestructuring DSA, the external debt service to revenue ratio breaches its threshold under the baseline over a prolonged period. Identified domestic and external funding sources are insufficient to meet Chad’s financing needs over the medium to long term, even with an ambitious fiscal consolidation. Altogether, Chad’s public debt is assessed to be unsustainable. Considering these financing and debt challenges, on December 14, 2020, the authorities announced their intention to seek debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework. On the domestic debt side, the authorities are in the process of rolling over the current debt stock to longer maturities. In view of the ongoing debt restructuring negotiations, Chad is assessed as being in external and overall debt distress. The ongoing debt restructuring is expected to restore debt sustainability and bring the risk rating to ‘moderate’ within the program period.  \n1. Chad’s external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt burden has stabilized at about 25 percent of GDP since 2015. Chad reached the HIPC Completion Point in April 2015 after a prolonged interim period. In the same year, it also undertook its first rescheduling of oil sale advances from the commercial company, Glencore, to cover revenue shortfalls. The Glencore debt was restructured again in early 2018 (Box 1) . At end-2020, outstanding PPG external debt stood at US$3 .0 billion, about 26 percent of GDP (Text Table 1) .  \n2. The composition of external PPG debt is dominated by commercial and non-Paris Club lenders. The share of external debt from multilaterals and international creditors has fallen from about 87 percent in 2008, to 36 percent in 2020, which in part reflects grant financing provided by the World Bank (IDA) and the AfDB. In turn, the share of commercial debt, mostly owed to Glencore, increased rapidly following the 2014 crisis. It was reduced following the debt restructuring, from a peak in 2016 of 53 percent to 37 percent at end-2020. Bilateral debt doubled over the past decade with China becoming the main bilateral creditor (Text Table 1) .  \n2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020  \n External Debt  Domestic Debt  \nSource: Country authorities, IMF, and World Bank staff estimates  \n|  | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| Multilateral | 695 | 741 | 848 | 1071 |\n| IMF | 173 | 262 | 381 | 586 |\n| World Bank/IDA | 182 | 175 | 171 | 170 |\n| African Development Bank/ADF | 100 | 95 | 94 | 109 |\n| Other | 239 | 208 | 201 | 206 |\n| Official Bilateral | 734 | 800 | 661 | 837 |\n| Paris Club | 43 | 108 | 122 | 122 |\n| Non-Paris Club | 690 | 692 | 539 | 715 |\n| China | 226 | 226 | 218 | 291 |\n| Libya | 230 | 272 | 230 | 263 |\n| India | 38 | 37 | 37 | 48 |\n| Other |  |  |  | 114 |\n| Commercial | 1272 | 1202 | 1158 | 1106 |\n| Glencore Energy | 1272 | 1199 | 1155 | 1073 |\n| Total | 2702 | 2745 | 2665 | 3013 |\n| Percent of GDP | 25.6 | 25.8 | 24.6 | 26.3 |\n| Memorandum Items |  |  |  |  |\n| Multilateral (share of total) | 25.7 | 27.0 | 31.8 | 35.5 |\n|","cbCaiugckdMcejMd","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiugckdMcejMd","pdf",914641,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress\n## External debt distress assessment\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n## Granularity in the risk rating\n# Key drivers and country context\n## Impact of COVID-19 and oil price volatility\n## External liquidity pressures and export revisions\n## Public debt assessed as unsustainable\n# Debt restructuring actions and expectations\n## Intention to seek restructuring under the G20 Common Framework\n## Rolling over domestic debt to longer maturities\n## Expected restoration of sustainability\n# External public and publicly guaranteed debt dynamics\n## Stabilization of external debt burden since 2015\n## Creditor composition shifts and major bilateral/commercial roles\n# External arrears and financing support\n## Outstanding external payment arrears by creditor\n## Negotiations and reconciliation outcomes\n## IDA support and debt relief frameworks","[{\"question\":\"Why did Chad’s debt ratios worsen after the COVID-19 pandemic?\",\"answer\":\"Debt ratios worsened due to increased downside risks linked to uncertainty about the pandemic’s duration and intensity and to oil price volatility. External liquidity pressures also rose after exports were revised downward in 2020, reducing oil revenues.\"},{\"question\":\"What conclusion does the pre-restructuring DSA reach about Chad’s public debt?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis concludes that Chad’s public debt is assessed as unsustainable. The external debt service-to-revenue ratio breaches its threshold under the baseline over a prolonged period.\"},{\"question\":\"How is Chad addressing external debt distress and arrears?\",\"answer\":\"Authorities announced their intention to seek debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework and are rolling over domestic debt to longer maturities. They are also discussing outstanding external arrears bilaterally and expect debt restructuring agreements to be finalized following reconciliation and negotiations.\"}]",1784486884,50,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"chad-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-of-external-debt-distress","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/chad-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-risk-of-external-debt-distress/110751/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"Why did Chad’s debt ratios worsen after the COVID-19 pandemic?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Debt ratios worsened due to increased downside risks linked to uncertainty about the pandemic’s duration and intensity and to oil price volatility. External liquidity pressures also rose after exports were revised downward in 2020, reducing oil revenues.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"What conclusion does the pre-restructuring DSA reach about Chad’s public debt?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"The analysis concludes that Chad’s public debt is assessed as unsustainable. The external debt service-to-revenue ratio breaches its threshold under the baseline over a prolonged period.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"How is Chad addressing external debt distress and arrears?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Authorities announced their intention to seek debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework and are rolling over domestic debt to longer maturities. They are also discussing outstanding external arrears bilaterally and expect debt restructuring agreements to be finalized following reconciliation and negotiations.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,113,118,121,125,128,132],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":28,"slug":112},6,"Technology","technology",{"id":114,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":115,"show_sort_weight":116,"slug":117},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},30,"research-report",{"id":122,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":123,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":124},9,"Religion & Spirituality","religion-spirituality",{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":127},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":129,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":129,"slug":131},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":135},19,"General","general"]