[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110366-en":3,"doc-seo-110366-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110366,549758252649,"Ivy","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/8000253669c5317157?_k=1778319167496531819",8,"Research & Report","Chad - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - High external debt distress risk","Chad’s debt sustainability analysis assesses the risk of external and overall debt distress, concluding that both are high while domestic and public debt are assessed as sustainable under defined assumptions. Improvements since the December 2021 DSA are linked to higher oil prices and debt treatment under the G20 Common Framework, which ends distress but leaves high external risk. Key drivers include a breach of the external debt service-to-revenue threshold in 2022 and expected reversion below the threshold by 2024, alongside uncertainties from oil price volatility, insecurity, social unrest, and potential financing shortfalls.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAbebe Adugna and Marcello Estevão (IDA) Vitaliy Kramarenko, Maria Gonzalez (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| CHAD: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nChad’s debt ratios have improved from the last DSA (December 2021) due to higher oil prices and the debt treatment agreed by official and commercial creditors under the G20 Common Framework. With the conclusion of this agreement, Chad is no longer in debt distress, but is at high risk of external debt distress as the external debt service-to-revenue ratio breaches its threshold in 2022-231. This ratio is, however, expected to decrease below the 14-percent threshold in 2024 on account of the debt treatment signed under the G20 Common Framework. Downside risks remain high given the uncertainties around oil price volatility, increased insecurity, and social unrest due to the political transition, and possible shortfalls in financing. The risk of debt distress is expected to be ‘moderate’ by the end of the program period as the debt service-to-revenue ratio is expected to be below the threshold of 14 percent in 2024. The likelihood of this outcome is enhanced by the agreement on the contingent debt treatment and the implementation of the debt restructuring agreement with the main private creditor. The PV of total public debt-to-GDP indicator is above the 35 percent high-risk benchmark in 2022-23 associated heightened public debt vulnerabilities with a weak debt carrying capacity. Chad’s public debt is assessed to be sustainable. Identified domestic and external funding sources together with the identified ambitious fiscal consolidation would be essential for debt to remain sustainable.  \n1 With a score of 2 .30, Chad’s composite indicator, which is based on the October 2022 WEO and the 2021 CPIA, signals a weak debt-carrying capacity.  \n1. Public debt coverage includes central state debt, as well as government guaranteed external debt owed by the public oil company (Société des Hydrocarbures du Tchad or SHT) . Almost all other public sector entities (including other state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and local governments) do not have access to external financing. The exception is the N’Djamena Oil Refinery (Société de Raffinage de N’Djaména , or SRN), in which the central government holds a 40 percent share, and which has two loans with CNPC Finance and EXIM Bank China. As in previous DSAs, external debt is defined on a currency basis. Therefore, CFAF-denominated debt contracted with the regional development bank (BDEAC)2 and with bilateral creditors in the currency union (Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Republic of Congo) are not considered external debt. Debt owed to Angola, which is being repaid in kind, is classified as external debt.  \n2. The contingent liability stress test accounts for vulnerabilities associated with nonguaranteed SOE debt and contingent fiscal liabilities associated with financial sector recapitalization (Text Table 2) . Contingent liabilities from financial markets are set at 5 percent of GDP, which represents the average cost to the government of a financial crisis in a low-income country since  \n1980. The size of the contingent liabilities for the SOE debt is set at 9.5 percent, reflecting the liabilities of SRN, Société Nationale d'Electricité (SNE), and Société Nationale de Ciment (SONACIM) following the results of a 2017 SOE Census supported by the World Bank. The size of domestic arrears in 2021 amounted to CFAF 393 billion, about 7.5 percent of non-oil GDP. The authorities aim to reduce the stock of domestic arrears by CFAF 95 billion in 2022, about 1.7 of non-oil GDP, and by CFAF 200 billion over 2022-","cbCaibqUhpuTpGRV","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaibqUhpuTpGRV","pdf",692668,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and drivers\n## External debt distress and thresholds\n## Overall debt distress and judgment\n# Debt indicators and sustainability assessment\n## Debt ratios and public debt burden\n## Composite indicator and debt-carrying capacity\n# Debt coverage and contingent liabilities\n## Coverage of public debt\n## Contingent liability stress test\n# Funding needs and policy implications\n## Fiscal consolidation and financing sources","[{\"question\":\"Why has Chad’s external debt distress risk improved compared with the December 2021 DSA?\",\"answer\":\"Improvements are attributed to higher oil prices and the debt treatment agreed with official and commercial creditors under the G20 Common Framework.\"},{\"question\":\"What keeps the overall risk of debt distress high despite the end of debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Chad is no longer in debt distress, but remains at high risk of external debt distress because the external debt service-to-revenue ratio breaches its threshold in 2022-23.\"},{\"question\":\"How could Chad’s external risk evolve by the end of the program period?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis expects the debt service-to-revenue ratio to decrease below the 14 percent threshold in 2024, supported by contingent debt treatment and implementation of the debt restructuring agreement with the main private creditor.\"}]",1784485095,53,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"chad-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-external-debt-distress-risk","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/chad-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-external-debt-distress-risk/110366/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"Why has Chad’s external debt distress risk improved compared with the December 2021 DSA?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Improvements are attributed to higher oil prices and the debt treatment agreed with official and commercial creditors under the G20 Common Framework.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"What keeps the overall risk of debt distress high despite the end of debt distress?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Chad is no longer in debt distress, but remains at high risk of external debt distress because the external debt service-to-revenue ratio breaches its threshold in 2022-23.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"How could Chad’s external risk evolve by the end of the program period?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The analysis expects the debt service-to-revenue ratio to decrease below the 14 percent threshold in 2024, supported by contingent debt treatment and implementation of the debt restructuring agreement with the main private 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