[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111575-en":3,"doc-seo-111575-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111575,687197207639,"Asher","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Central African Republic - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - High-Risk External Debt Distress Assessment","Central African Republic (CAR) faces a high risk of external debt distress and an overall high risk of debt distress, while public debt is projected to be sustainable. The assessment highlights substantial liquidity risks linked to possible donor support shortfalls and rollover risks on regional debt. Disbursements were catalyzed by the April 2023 ECF-supported program, alongside financing support from AfDB, the World Bank, and France, but full resumption from traditional donors remains slow amid geopolitical and governance constraints. Standard stress tests, macro-fiscal and financing uncertainty, and contingent liabilities underpin the high-risk conclusion.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA), and Vitaliy Kramarenko and Anna Ivanova (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Central African Republic (CAR) remains at high risk of external debt distress and overall high risk of debt distress. Public debt is projected to be sustainable, though there are substantial liquidity risks, as shown by relevant debt indicators, stemming from possible shortfalls in donor support and substantial rollover risks on regional debt. The approval of the ECF-supported program in April 2023 helped catalyze disbursements from the African Development Bank (AfDB), while the World Bank provided disbursements for targeted recurrent spending costs, and France has recently disbursed a grant support after a long hiatus and is following up with a concessional loan in 2025. A full resumption of financing from all traditional donors remains slow amidst geopolitical tensions and governance shortfalls. Compared to the previously published DSA, 1 growth estimates were increased for 2024 to reflect the pickup in fuel consumption and stabilization in electricity provision at the financing mix in 2025 is improved with more concessional financing. At the same time, domestic revenues were adjusted down by an average of 0.7 percent of GDP between 2025 and 2029 to be more consistent with an updated assessment of the country’s revenue mobilization capacity. However, there have been no new breaches of thresholds since the last DSA. Sensitivity of debt indicators to standard stress tests, significant macroeconomic and financing uncertainty, and sizeable contingent liabilities are all considerations supporting the high-risk assessment. This assessment is predicated on the authorities’continued prioritization of and the ability to secure grant financing for essential current spending and developmental projects, as well as on their efforts to lengthen the profile of domestic debt. Significant downside risks, including  \n1 The current DSA follows the revised Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) for LICs and Guidance Note (2017) in effect as of July 1, 2018.  \n1 >>>   \nuncertainty regarding macro-fiscal projections, the full resumption of donor support, the size of humanitarian assistance, and the recovery of the fuel market, might affect the overall sustainability analysis.2  \n1. The coverage of public sector debt includes external and domestic contractual obligations of the central government, unchanged from the previous DSA. State and local governments do not borrow, there are no social security funds guaranteed by the public sector, and the government has not guaranteed other debt (Text Table 1) . The coverage of public sector debt exhibits some gaps, notably nonguaranteed SOE debt and supplier arrears. Post-HIPC arrears of the central government account for less than 1 percent of GDP. The limited debt coverage is symptomatic of capacity weakness to effectively collect debt data, thus limiting the scope for a full-scale debt analysis.  \n2. The implementation of a new legal framework governing SOEs would improve their financial oversight, which, along with other steps, should lead to better debt coverage going forward. Under the World Bank Sustainable Development Financing Policy (SDFP), the government completed and published in 2021 the audits of the three largest state-owned enterprises operating in the energy, telecommunications, and water sectors (ENERCA, SODECA, SOCATEL) . The objective of the audit was to assess their financial viability, increase the transparency in contingent liabilities reporting, and clarify","cbCail76GIrRtwN5","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCail76GIrRtwN5","pdf",2015072,1,24,"English","en",105,"# Risk of Debt Distress Assessment\n## External Debt Distress Risk\n## Overall Risk and Judgment Application\n## Liquidity Risks and Financing Conditions\n## Comparison With Previous DSA\n## Revenue and Financing Assumptions\n## Threshold Breaches and Stress Test Sensitivities\n## Coverage of Public Sector Debt and Data Gaps\n## Contingent Liabilities and SOE Audits\n## Contingent Liabilities Shock Assumptions","[{\"question\":\"What is the Central African Republic’s risk rating for external debt distress in this analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates the CAR as having a high risk of external debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the report maintain an overall high risk of debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"It cites substantial liquidity risks from donor shortfalls and regional rollover risk, and it is supported by sensitivities to standard stress tests, macroeconomic/financing uncertainty, and sizable contingent liabilities.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors are included in the contingent liabilities stress test?\",\"answer\":\"The stress test combines shocks that capture exposure to arrears, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and financial market risk, with tailored assumptions reflecting uncertainty around non-guaranteed SOE debt and domestic arrears.\"}]",1784490746,60,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"central-african-republic-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-external-debt-distress-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/central-african-republic-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-external-debt-distress-assessment/111575/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the Central African Republic’s risk rating for external debt distress in this analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The analysis rates the CAR as having a high risk of external debt distress.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why does the report maintain an overall high risk of debt distress?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"It cites substantial liquidity risks from donor shortfalls and regional rollover risk, and it is supported by sensitivities to standard stress tests, macroeconomic/financing uncertainty, and sizable contingent liabilities.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What factors are included in the contingent liabilities stress test?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"The stress test combines shocks that capture exposure to arrears, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and financial market risk, with tailored assumptions reflecting uncertainty around non-guaranteed SOE debt and domestic 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