[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109911-en":3,"doc-seo-109911-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109911,1374391974564,"Clementine","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/14000253aa45c000a9e?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779874745381141002",8,"Research & Report","Central African Republic - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020","Joint World Bank–IMF debt sustainability analysis for the Central African Republic updates the December 2019 assessment to incorporate the COVID-19 pandemic’s altered macroeconomic outlook. The report finds the country remains at high risk of external debt distress and an overall high risk of debt distress, unchanged in direction but heightened by uncertainty. It projects worsening liquidity breaches in the medium term, despite debt sustainability conditional on executing ECF-supported reforms and securing grant-based investment financing with concessional debt only exceptionally.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nCENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nApril 2020  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Annalisa Fedelino, Seán Nolan (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \n\n| Central African Republic 1 : Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High 2 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgement | No |\n| Macroeconomic projections | This DSA update factors in the expected economic impact of the pandemic, with a significant decline in growth and trade flows and a sizeable widening of the fiscal and current account deficits in 2020. Growth is assumed to partially rebound in 2021 as the situation is assumed to start normalizing in the second half of 2020. |\n| Financing strategy | Due to C.A.R.’s weak liquidity indicators, the country’s strategy remains to seek additional grant financing from multilateral and bilateral donors to cover the residual financing gaps arising from the economic impact and mitigation efforts of the COVID-19 pandemic. |\n| Realism tools flagged | n. a. |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | High |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA. | High |\n| 1 Debt coverage has not changed since the last DSA.\u003Cbr>2 With a score of 2 .44, C.A.R.’s composite indicator, which is based on the October 2019 WEO and the 2018 CPIA, signals a weak debt-carrying capacity. |  |\n\nThis debt sustainability analysis (DSA) updates the joint World Bank-IMF analysis of December 2019 to reflect the most recent outlook, which has been substantially altered by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Central African Republic (C.A.R.) remains at high risk of external debt distress and overall high risk of debt distress, unchanged from the most recent DSA of December 2019. 3These risks have increased owing to the high uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While solvency indicators remain below their relevant thresholds, the disbursement under the RCF is projected to accentuate the breaches of the liquidity indicators over the medium term. Sensitivity of debt indicators to standard stress tests, the high uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic projections, a volatile security environment, and sizeable contingent liabilities are all considerations supporting the high-risk assessment. Debt is projected to remain sustainable over the medium term provided that the authorities move ahead with the policies and structural reforms committed under the ECF arrangement once the effects of the COVID crisis wear off. Given the difficult debt situation, staffs recommend that the government’s investment program requires grant financing, with concessional debt financing to be considered in exceptional cases.  \nThe current macroeconomic framework reflects currently available information . Updates of the economic impact and policy response to the COVID-19 crisis are rapidly evolving and risks are heavily tilted to the downside.  \n3 Country Report No . 20/1, January 2020.  \nTable 1. Central African Republic: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2017–40  \n(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)  \nActual Projections  \n2017  \n2018  \n2019  \n2020  \n2021  \n2022  \n2023  \n2024  \n2025  \n2030  \n2040  \nExternal debt (nominal) 1/  \nof which: public and publicly guaranteed (PPG)  \n35.4  \n35.4  \n37.2  \n37.2  \n37.2  \n37.2  \n39.7  \n39.7  \n38.0  \n38.0  \n35.7  \n35.7  \n33.8  \n33.8  \n32.3  \n32.3  \n31.1  \n31.1  \n29.1  \n29.1  \n27.4  \n27.4  \nNon-interest current account deficit 7.7 7.8 4.8 5.5 5.1 5.1 5.6 5.6 5.5 2.8  \n2.7  \nChange in external debt  \nIdentified net debt-creating flows  \nDeficit in balance of goods and services  \nExports  \nImport","cbCaifd65ov4r51k","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaifd65ov4r51k","pdf",439174,4,1,10,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment\n## External debt distress risk (high)\n## Overall debt distress risk (high)\n## Granularity and judgement\n# Macroeconomic projections and assumptions\n## Pandemic impact on growth and trade flows\n## Baseline outlook and normalization timing\n# Financing strategy and conditionality\n## Grant financing need and donor support\n## ECF policy commitments\n# Debt outlook and sustainability indicators\n## Liquidity and solvency constraints\n## Stress test sensitivity considerations\n# Baseline framework table (selected indicators)\n## External debt and current account components\n## Debt dynamics and financing needs\n## PV and debt service indicators","[{\"question\":\"What prompted the debt sustainability update for the Central African Republic?\",\"answer\":\"The update reflects the most recent outlook after the COVID-19 pandemic significantly altered growth, trade flows, and fiscal and current account deficits compared with December 2019.\"},{\"question\":\"What is the Central African Republic’s debt risk rating in this analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The report assesses a high risk of external debt distress and an overall high risk of debt distress, with the risk level remaining high versus the prior DSA direction.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the report maintain a high-risk assessment despite conditional sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"High uncertainty about the pandemic’s economic impact, sensitivity to stress tests, a volatile security environment, and sizeable contingent liabilities outweigh solvency indicators being below thresholds, leading to continued high-risk conclusions.\"}]","Central African Republic - 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