[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111630-en":3,"doc-seo-111630-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111630,7971461740909,"Levi","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","Central African Republic - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - High Risk Assessment","Central African Republic remains at a high risk of external debt distress and an overall high risk of debt distress. The analysis projects public debt as sustainable, but highlights substantial liquidity vulnerabilities linked to possible donor support shortfalls and significant rollover risks on regional debt. ECF approval in April 2023 catalyzed disbursements, yet full traditional donor financing recovery is delayed by geopolitical tensions and governance weaknesses. Compared with the prior DSA, PV debt-to-GDP breaches the threshold in 2024–2026, while liquidity indicators breach for four years from 2024.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA) and Vitaliy Kramarenko and Anna Ivanova (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC\u003Cbr>JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Central African Republic (CAR) remains at high risk of external debt distress and overall high risk of debt distress. Public debt is projected to be sustainable, though there are substantial liquidity risks, as shown by relevant debt indicators, stemming from possible shortfalls in donor support and substantial rollover risks on regional debt. The approval of the ECF-supported program in April 2023 helped catalyze disbursements from the African Development Bank (AfDB), while the World Bank provided disbursements for targeted recurrent spending costs. However, a full resumption of financing from traditional donors remains distant amidst geopolitical tensions and governance shortfalls. Compared to the previous DSA, 1 domestic debt has increased due to ramped-up borrowing in the CEMAC regional debt market and the addition of two previously non-included loans from regional banks. Asa result, the present value of total debt-to-GDP breaches the threshold not only in 2024 , but now also in 2025 and 2026. While solvency indicators for external debt remain below thresholds, liquidity indicators for external debt (debt service-to-exports and debt service-to-revenue) exhibit breaches for 4 years starting in 2024, largely on account of obligations to the Fund falling due. Sensitivity of debt indicators to standard stress tests, significant macroeconomic and financing uncertainty, and sizeable contingent liabilities are all considerations supporting the high-risk  \n1 The current DSA follows the revised Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) for LICs and Guidance Note (2017) in effect as of July 1, 2018.  \nassessment.  \nThis assessment is predicated on the authorities’ continued prioritization of and the ability to secure grant financing for essential current spending and developmental projects, as well as on their efforts to lengthen the profile of domestic debt. Significant downside risks, including uncertainty regarding macro-fiscal projections, the full resumption of donor support and the recovery of the fuel market, might affect the overall sustainability analysis.2  \n1. The coverage of public sector debt includes external and domestic contractual obligations of the central government, unchanged from the previous DSA. State and local governments do not borrow, there are no social security funds guaranteed by the public sector, and the government has not guaranteed other debt (Text Table 1) . The coverage of public sector debt exhibits some gaps, notably non-guaranteed SOE debt and supplier arrears. Post HIPC arrears of the central government account for less than 1 percent of GDP. The limited debt coverage is symptomatic of capacity weakness to effectively collect debt data, thus limiting the scope for a full-scale debt analysis.  \n2. The implementation of a new legal framework governing SOEs would improve their financial oversight, which, along with other steps, should lead to better debt coverage going forward. Under the World Bank Sustainable Development Financing Policy (SDFP), the government has completed and published in 2021 the audits of the three largest state-owned enterprises operating in the energy, telecommunications, and water sectors (ENERCA, SODECA, SOCATEL) . The objective of the audit was to assess their financial viability, increase the transparency in contingent liabilities reporting, and clarify the status of unaudited domestic arrears.3 The government prepared and approved a cross-deb","cbCaipJRTGfQmvEd","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaipJRTGfQmvEd","pdf",634987,1,24,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment\n## Overall debt distress risk\n## External debt liquidity risks\n# Methodology and Assumptions\n## Coverage of public sector debt\n## Contingent liabilities stress test\n# Key Drivers and Developments\n## Donor disbursements and program support\n## Donor resumption and governance constraints\n# Sensitivities and Uncertainty\n## Stress tests and macroeconomic risks\n## Fuel market and macro-fiscal projections","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk rating for debt distress in the Central African Republic?\",\"answer\":\"The assessment rates both the risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress as high.\"},{\"question\":\"Why do liquidity indicators for external debt breach thresholds starting in 2024?\",\"answer\":\"Liquidity indicators breach for four years starting in 2024, largely due to obligations to the Fund falling due.\"},{\"question\":\"What changed versus the previous debt sustainability analysis (DSA)?\",\"answer\":\"Total debt-to-GDP shows threshold breaches in 2024, 2025, and 2026, with increases attributed to higher borrowing in the CEMAC regional debt market and inclusion of two previously non-included regional bank loans.\"}]",1784490997,60,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"central-african-republic-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/central-african-republic-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-assessment/111630/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is the overall risk rating for debt distress in the Central African Republic?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The assessment rates both the risk of external debt distress and the overall risk of debt distress as high.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Why do liquidity indicators for external debt breach thresholds starting in 2024?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Liquidity indicators breach for four years starting in 2024, largely due to obligations to the Fund falling due.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What changed versus the previous debt sustainability analysis (DSA)?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Total debt-to-GDP shows threshold breaches in 2024, 2025, and 2026, with increases attributed to higher borrowing in the CEMAC regional debt market and inclusion of two previously non-included regional bank 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