[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-324610-105":59,"doc-detail-324610-en":131},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":124,"head_meta":126,"extra_data":128,"updated_unix":130},105,"en","can-state-employment-declines-foretell-national-business-cycles","Can State Employment Declines Foretell National Business Cycles?","","The document examines whether employment decline patterns in specific U.S. states can serve as leading indicators of national business-cycle turning points. It reviews historical episodes since 1950, noting that many state troughs align with national recessions while some states remain unaffected during national downturns. It also distinguishes cyclical declines from secular restructuring, and proposes tracking monthly state employment growth versus decline as a practical barometer of recession severity.",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/can-state-employment-declines-foretell-national-business-cycles/324610/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/can-state-employment-declines-foretell-national-business-cycles/324610.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Hazel","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-28","2026-09-21",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",15,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"What question does the document address about national recessions?","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"It asks whether national recessions can be predicted by observing the employment performance of specific states or regions over time.","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"How does the document measure state employment changes?",{"text":118,"@type":114},"States are classified each month as having employment growth or employment decline, with growth measured by year-over-year percent change in total nonagricultural employment.",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"Do state employment downturns always coincide with national recessions?",{"text":122,"@type":114},"No. Although many states show employment losses around national recession troughs, the document notes several cases where many states experienced employment declines without a subsequent national recession.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},324610,1790459630,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":24,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":145,"preview_page_count":4},137441390410,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/2000252f4ab5702993?_k=1776741390130283984","by Randall W.Eberts  \nR.  \nthat the employment performance of statesmay offer early signs of a downtum in thenational economy.Some have even hintedthat as few as six states experiencingemployment declines simultaneously isenough to push the entire U.S.economyinto a recession.For analysts seekinganother leading indicator of national busi-ness cycles,the possible existence ofbellwether states is intriguing.  \nThis interest has been heightened bythe perception that,during the 1980s,the economy was characterized by roll-ing recessions in which some states orregions appeared to run counter to thenational trend.If national businesscycles affected states in the same way.all states would enter and leave reces-sions at the same time—resembling astring of boats moored in a harbor,bob-bing up and down in unison as a wavepasses below.  \nInstead,it appears that states enter andtimes,and that some states can evenremain untouched by national down-turms.For instance,while the U.S.economy fell into a recession between1980:1Q and 1981:IIIQ,theenergy-producing states of Texas,Louisiana,and Oklahoma showed no significantdownturn.The same held true duringthe subsequent—and much deeper—recession between 1981:ⅢQ and1982:IVQ.Yet,as the rest of the nationbegan to climb out of the second reces-  \n# Can State Employment DeclinesForetell National Business Cycles?\n\nsion,the oil states slipped into theirown.After enjoying a short recoverywithin a year after the national trough,these three states again descended intoa period of employment decline,whichlasted well into 1987.  \nRecent episodes of state employmentloss during periods of national businessexpansions involve several NewEngland states,centered around Mas-sachusetts.After years of seeminglyunprecedented growth,that state's econ-omy abruptly changed course in June1986,subsequently entering a pro-tracted period of employment declinethat sill persists.Rhode Island and NewHampshire immediately joined Massa-chusetts,and Vermont and Maine werepulled into the regional recesssion soonthereafter.  \nClearly,the economic performance ofstates and regions differs throughout anational business cycle.It is reasonableto ask,then,if some pattem developsamong changes in state employmentlevels that could offer clues conceningturming points in the national economy.This Economic Commentary exploresstate employment fluctuations since1950 to ascertain whether any suchregularities have indeed occurred.Theapproach taken here is simple:Statesare classified each month as havingeither employment growth or employ-ment decline,with growth beingmeasured as the year-over-year percent-  \nIs it possible to predict nationalrecessions by following the employ-ment performance of specific states orregions?The author investigates thisquestion from a historical perspectiveby comparing the employment pat-terns of states to the health of thenational economy over the post-WWIIperiod.  \nage change in total nonagriculturalemployment.  \n## ■ Tracking State EmploymentDeclines\n\nA monthly plot of the number of statesshowing no year-to-year employmentgrowth closely tracks national down-tums,as measured both by declines inthe U.S.employment level and by thepeaks and troughs of a national busi-ness cycle,assigned by the NationalBureau of Economic Research(figure  \n1).²For each ofthe seven nationalrecessions since 1950,the trough coin-cided(within two months or less)withthe maximum number of states thatwould eventually experience employ-ment loss during that specific down-turn.At least half of the states(Alaskaand Hawaii are not considered here)participated in each recession,althoughnot necessarily the same states.Further-more,according to past cycles,it takesat least 20 states posting employmentdeclines concurrently before a national  \n1956  \n1951  \nNOTE:Dashed lines indicate the peaks and troughs of national recssions.Last month plotted is May 1990.  \nSOURCE:U.S.Department of Labor.Bureau of Labor Statistics.  \nrecession occurs.Since 1950,therehave ","cbCaiuIRnst6Vvh6","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiuIRnst6Vvh6","pdf",1144849,"English","# Can State Employment Declines Foretell National Business Cycles?\n## Tracking State Employment Declines\n## Patterns of Entry and Exit","[{\"question\":\"What question does the document address about national recessions?\",\"answer\":\"It asks whether national recessions can be predicted by observing the employment performance of specific states or regions over time.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the document measure state employment changes?\",\"answer\":\"States are classified each month as having employment growth or employment decline, with growth measured by year-over-year percent change in total nonagricultural employment.\"},{\"question\":\"Do state employment downturns always coincide with national recessions?\",\"answer\":\"No. Although many states show employment losses around national recession troughs, the document notes several cases where many states experienced employment declines without a subsequent national recession.\"}]","Can State Employment Declines Foretell National Business Cycles? | PDF",1789968391,13]