[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-120871-en":3,"doc-seo-120871-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":27,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},120871,3848291630094,"Emma Wilson","https://eur-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_085a072bc5b1113ac321206ff7593b45",8,"Research & Report","Can Conversations on Reddit Forecast Future Economic Uncertainty? - An Interpretable Machine Learning Approach","Social media has become a critical information source for capturing public attitudes, opinions, and concerns in quantifiable forms. This paper presents an interpretable machine learning framework to predict an Equity Market-related Economic Uncertainty Index using features derived from Reddit discussions. The approach combines custom preprocessing with BERTopic for latent topic discovery and regularized linear models, then evaluates explanatory configurations on a large corpus of Reddit posts from the personal finance category. Findings provide interpretable insights into which discussion topics help predict future economic uncertainty, supporting economic forecasting research.","Association for Information Systems  \nAIS Electronic Library (AISeL)  \nRising like a Phoenix: Emerging from the Pandemic and Reshaping Human Endeavors with Digital Technologies ICIS 2023  \nEmerging from the Pandemic and Reshaping Human Endeavors with Digital Technologies  \nDec 11th, 12:00 AM  \nCan Conversations on Reddit Forecast Future Economic Uncertainty? An Interpretable Machine Learning Approach  \nJinhang Jiang  \nWalmart Inc., [jinhang.jiang@walmart.com](jinhang.jiang@walmart.com)  \nMei Feng  \nUniversity of Kansas, [fengmei0520@gmail.com](fengmei0520@gmail.com)  \nKarthik Srinivasan  \nUniversity of Kansas, [karthiks@ku.edu](karthiks@ku.edu)  \nFollow this and additional works at: [https://aisel.aisnet.org/icis2023](https://aisel.aisnet.org/icis2023)  \nRecommended Citation  \nJiang, Jinhang; Feng, Mei; and Srinivasan, Karthik, \"Can Conversations on Reddit Forecast Future Economic Uncertainty? An Interpretable Machine Learning Approach\" (2023) . Rising like a Phoenix:  \nEmerging from the Pandemic and Reshaping Human Endeavors with Digital Technologies ICIS 2023. 6.  \n[https://aisel.aisnet.org/icis2023/emergpand/emergpand/6](https://aisel.aisnet.org/icis2023/emergpand/emergpand/6)  \nThis material is brought to you by the International Conference on Information Systems (ICIS) at AIS Electronic Library (AISeL) . It has been accepted for inclusion in Rising like a Phoenix: Emerging from the Pandemic and Reshaping Human Endeavors with Digital Technologies ICIS 2023 by an authorized administrator of AIS Electronic Library (AISeL) . For more information, please [contact elibrary@aisnet.org](contact elibrary@aisnet.org).  \nInterpretable Machine Learning for Econonic Uncertainty Modeling  \nCan Conversations on Reddit Forecast Future Economic Uncertainty? An Interpretable Machine Learning Approach  \nCompleted Research Paper  \nJinhang Jiang  \nWalmart Inc., 702 SW 8th St. Bentonville, AR 72716, US  \n[Jinhang.Jiang@walmart.com](Jinhang.Jiang@walmart.com)  \nMei Feng  \nBiopharmaceutical Innovation & Optimization Center, University of Kansas 2097 Constant Ave., Lawrence, KS 66047, US [meifeng@ku.edu](meifeng@ku.edu)  \nKarthik Srinivasan  \nSchool of Business,  \nUniversity of Kansas  \n1654 Naismith Dr, Lawrence,  \nKS 66045, US  \n[karthiks@ku.edu](karthiks@ku.edu)  \nAbstract  \nIn recent years, social media has become an indispensable source of information through which public attitudes, opinions, and concerns can be studied and quantified.  \nThis paper proposes an interpretable machine learning framework for predicting the Equity Market-related Economic Uncertainty Index using features generated from a popular discussion forum on Reddit. Our framework consists of a series of custom preprocessing and analytics methods, including BERTopic for latent topic identification and regularized linear models. Using our framework, we evaluate explanatory models with different configurations over a large corpus of Reddit posts belonging to the personal finance category. Our analysis generates valuable insights about discussion topics on Reddit and their efficacy in accurately predicting future economic uncertainty.  \nThe study demonstrates the potential of using social media data and interpretable machine learning to inform economic forecasting research.  \nKeywords: Economic Uncertainty Analysis; Topic Modeling; Social Media Analytics;  \nInterpretable Machine Learning; Multimodal Modeling.  \nIntroduction  \nSocial media platforms have become an invaluable source of information for studying various social, economic, and political phenomena in modern society (Kurumathur et al., 2022; Sachin et al., 2022; Wanget al., 2022). By analyzing the content of social media posts, we can gain valuable insights into the attitudes, behaviors, and concerns of a wide range of internet users. For example, social media data has been previously leveraged to examine the sentiments of investors toward public stocks and market indices (Denget al., 2018; Maqsood et al., 2020; Singh ","cbCaiagU7p0fYJA2","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiagU7p0fYJA2","pdf",1740834,1,17,"English","en",105,"# Abstract\n# Introduction\n## Social media as information for uncertainty\n## Modeling economic uncertainty with EUI\n## Data focus: Personal Finance subreddit\n# Interpretable Machine Learning for Economic Uncertainty Modeling\n## Topic identification with BERTopic\n## Regularized linear models and evaluation","[{\"question\":\"What data source does the study use to model economic uncertainty?\",\"answer\":\"The study uses Reddit conversations, focusing on the Personal Finance subreddit, to generate features for prediction.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the proposed model remain interpretable?\",\"answer\":\"It combines BERTopic-based latent topic identification with regularized linear models, and evaluates explanatory configurations to understand how topics relate to uncertainty.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EUI) central to the research?\",\"answer\":\"The paper frames economic uncertainty as a regression problem using the EUI, aiming to examine whether public online sentiment is associated with future economic uncertainty.\"}]","Can Conversations on Reddit Forecast Future Economic Uncertainty? 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