[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-325777-105":59,"doc-detail-325777-en":131},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":124,"head_meta":126,"extra_data":128,"updated_unix":130},105,"en","can-conventional-theory-explain-the-unconventional-recovery","Can Conventional Theory Explain the Unconventional Recovery?","","The text examines whether conventional business-cycle theory can account for a sluggish post-recovery environment, arguing that recent U.S. fluctuations reflect structural change rather than market failure. It contrasts cyclical deviations from a stable GDP trend with structural or trend movements driven by shifts in the economy’s potential and resource reallocation. It also critiques how official cycle measurement by NBER defines expansions and recessions across aggregate economic activity, and concludes that the absence of a typically cyclical component is unusual.",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/can-conventional-theory-explain-the-unconventional-recovery/325777/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/can-conventional-theory-explain-the-unconventional-recovery/325777.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Rowan","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-11-04","2026-09-21",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",13,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"What does the text claim explains the unconventional recovery’s sluggishness?","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"It argues that permanent structural and potential changes drive sluggishness, not inadequate aggregate demand. It rejects remedies based solely on expansionary monetary or fiscal policy.","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"How does the text distinguish cyclical movements from structural movements?",{"text":118,"@type":114},"Cyclical movements are deviations around an equilibrium that the economy later recovers to, while structural or trend movements arise from changes in the economy’s potential and resource allocation.",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"Why does the text say it is hard to empirically separate cycle from trend?",{"text":122,"@type":114},"It argues differentiation requires a complete model of the economy to identify the economy’s potential. Without knowing potential, oscillations around trend and trend movements cannot be cleanly separated.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},325777,1790467410,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":24,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":105,"preview_page_count":4},1099514067415,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/100002539d78ffe74a7?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779092875211072502","by David Altig and Michael F.Bryan  \nIhe realstate therefore is one that is incontinuous oscillation around a centralequilibrium point,which itselfisin motion.Pareto  \nAsk the average intelligent observer ofeconomic matters to define a businesscycle and chances are good that youwill receive an explanation along thefollowing lines:Advanced economiesare characterized by long-run trends inthe level of gross domestic product(GDP)that can be predicted with virtualcertainty.However,the actual path ofoutput is not smooth.GDPwill some-times be above its trend level,and some-times below.It is this \"cycling\"aroundthe long-run trend that defines the periodsof contraction and expansion that consti-tute the business cycle.  \nThough intuitive,this view oversimpli-fies the actual method of measuring tur-ing points in business activity employedby the official arbiter of business cycles,the National Bureau of Economic Re-search(NBER).Following the pioneeringwork of former Federal Reserve Chair-man Arthur Burns and economist Wesley  \nC.Mitchell,the NBER defines peaks andtroughs of business activity as contrac-tions and expansions in“aggregate eco-nomic activity,\"as captured by a collec-tion of economic data.In Mitchell'swords:“..acycle consists of expansionsoccurring about the same time in manyeconomic activities,followed by similarlygeneral recessions,contractions,andrevivals which merge into the expansionphase of the next cycle\"[emphasisadded].²  \n# Can Conventional Theory Explainthe Unconventional Recovery?\n\nThis is adistinction with a difference.The narrow vantage point of cyclical ac-tivity as a sequence of transitory devia-tions of GDPfrom a relatively stabletrend—which we will for simplicity referto as the “conventional view”of businesscycles—leads naturally to the presump-tion that the economy does not functionproperly in the short runIndeed,thisview practically invites the common be-lief that economic swings reflect somebreakdown of the invisible hand that issupposed to direct markets,whether as aresult of price or wage inflexibility,ofmisperceived price signals arising fromvolatile and uncertain monetary policy,orof imperfections in credit markets.Thisinterpretation of business fluctuations alsoinvites the perspective that monetary policy plays a central role in the generationof the business cycle.  \nThe inevitability of this world view issubstantially undemined once cyclicalfluctuations are perceived as contractionsand expansions that are “occurring aboutthe same time in many economic activi-ties.\"To think of business activity as acollection of stylized facts conceming thecomovements of all economic variablesis to conceive of an organic economicuniverse in a process of continuousadjustment,where each piece is a partof larger,sensible whole.Fluctuationsin such a universe could indeed reflectthe temporary breakdown of marketmechanisms along an otherwise smoothand predictable trajectory.But equallyplausible is the possibility that theeconomy's trajectory shifts frequentlyand that economic aggregates move  \nApril 15,1992  \nIn examining current conditions,weshould look beyond the conventionalview of business cycles to see that per-manent,structural change may beargely responsible for the recovery'ssluggishness.In fact,structural adjust-ment seems to be an important compo-nent of all economic fluctuations.Whatdistinguishes the current economy is thelack of a typically\"cyclical\"element.  \ntogether in consistent fashion,in boththe short and long run,precisely be-cause markets are working.  \nTo entertain this possibility is to interpreteconomic fluctuations first as the resultof amarket equilibrium in which the par-ticipants exhaust all mutually advanta-geous gains from trade.We argue that thisapproach provides a useful framework forunderstanding the supposedly aberrantbehavior of the economy in recent years.We contend that recent phases of the U.S.business cycle reflect not so much a fail-ure of the marketplace as a fundamentalchange in the ","cbCaidQGiWbca8cq","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaidQGiWbca8cq","pdf",1200416,"English","# Can Conventional Theory Explain the Unconventional Recovery?\n## The Conventional View and the Conundrum of Cycle vs.Trend","[{\"question\":\"What does the text claim explains the unconventional recovery’s sluggishness?\",\"answer\":\"It argues that permanent structural and potential changes drive sluggishness, not inadequate aggregate demand. It rejects remedies based solely on expansionary monetary or fiscal policy.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the text distinguish cyclical movements from structural movements?\",\"answer\":\"Cyclical movements are deviations around an equilibrium that the economy later recovers to, while structural or trend movements arise from changes in the economy’s potential and resource allocation.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the text say it is hard to empirically separate cycle from trend?\",\"answer\":\"It argues differentiation requires a complete model of the economy to identify the economy’s potential. Without knowing potential, oscillations around trend and trend movements cannot be cleanly separated.\"}]","Can Conventional Theory Explain the Unconventional Recovery? | PDF",1789971393]