[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111475-en":3,"doc-seo-111475-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111475,8796095462418,"Noah","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80000253c1241d02b47?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1778826106357471780",8,"Research & Report","Cameroon - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Cameroon remains at high risk of external debt distress and overall debt distress, even as its debt-carrying capacity was upgraded to medium. The analysis links relatively low and declining public debt-to-GDP (projected just above 40 percent by end-2025) to resilient growth and prudent fiscal policy, but highlights countervailing pressures from higher debt-service costs and weaker export projections. Liquidity risks persist as external debt service-to-exports stays above thresholds across most of the horizon, reflecting a narrow export base. Overall debt vulnerabilities are gradually easing, while downside risks rise due to domestic security and contingent liabilities, climate shocks, and external financial and energy volatility. The assessment recommends continuing prudent fiscal measures, improved revenue mobilization, tighter monitoring and portfolio management, export promotion, strengthened external statistics, business-climate reforms, and reinforced SOE/PPP oversight.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA), and Stéphane Roudet, Bergljot Bjornson Barkbu (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| CAMEROON: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nCameroon remains at high risk of debt distress compared to the previous DSA report published in February 2025 , despite the upgrade of its debt-carrying capacity to medium. 1 Resilient growth and a prudent fiscal stance continue to support debt dynamics, as evidenced in the relatively low and declining public debt to GDP ratio, projected at just above 40 percent by end-2025. However, these positive trends are countered by elevated debt-service costs and weaker export projections, partly related to weakening terms of trade, which point to still elevated liquidity risks. The external debt service– to–exports ratio remains above its threshold for almost the entire projection horizon, also reflecting Cameroon’s narrow export base. The external debt service–to–revenue ratio falls below its benchmark only from the medium term, while the PV of external debt to exports ratio hovers just below its threshold until the end of the projection period. By contrast, both the PV of external debt–to–GDP and the PV of public debt-to-GDP remain well below their thresholds and are projected to further decline over time, pointing to gradually easing overall debt vulnerabilities. Taking all these factors into account, staff maintains the assessment that Cameroon’s debt is sustainable, supported by the authorities’ commitment to prudent fiscal policy, debt sustainability, and active debt management.  \n1 The Cameroon Composite Indicator index, calculated based on the October 2025 World Economic Outlook and the 2024 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment, is at 2.76. This value exceeds the threshold for medium debt-carrying capacity and follows consecutive signals above the threshold. Accordingly, Cameroon’s debt-carrying capacity has been upgraded to medium.  \nDownside risks to the debt outlook remain significant and have increased with respect to the previous DSA. Domestically, rising social tensions, regional and national security pressures, and the materialization of contingent liabilities could weaken the macroeconomic outlook. Limited progress on export diversification, recurrent climate shocks, and possible pressures on regional reserves from fiscal expansion in other CEMAC countries also heighten vulnerabilities. Externally, heightened geoeconomic tensions , a renewed tightening of global financial conditions or sharp market corrections, weaker-than-expected global growth, and volatile energy prices could adversely affect exports, financing conditions, and fiscal revenues.  \nTo mitigate these risks, Cameroon should continue advancing its debt-sustainability efforts. Priority measures include prudent fiscal policy and strengthening revenue mobilization, improving debt-service monitoring and portfolio management, accelerating export-promotion and strengthening external sector statistics to minimize under-reporting, advancing business-climate reforms, and reinforcing SOE and PPP oversight to contain contingent liability risks.  \n1. Debt coverage remains unchanged since the previous DSA (Text Table 1) . Public debt coverage includes debt of the central government, expenditure floats and arrears, guarantees, debt of the National Refining Company (SONARA), and external arrears of other state-owned enterprises (SOEs) . The DSA does not cover the debt of local governments, which are not allowed to borrow from financial markets, and such debt is mostly owed to domestic suppliers, including SOEs, and is yet to be further verified. Othe","cbCaiqiQekawxZlK","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiqiQekawxZlK","pdf",971899,1,24,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment and baseline conclusions\n## Debt distress ratings and key indicators\n## Reasons for high risk alongside easing vulnerabilities\n# Downside risks and mitigation measures\n## Domestic risks and contingent liabilities\n## External risks and macro-financial channels\n## Policy priorities for reducing vulnerabilities\n# Coverage and data considerations for the DSA\n## Scope of public and external debt elements\n## SOE debt coverage progress and remaining gaps","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk rating for Cameroon’s debt sustainability in this joint analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis assigns Cameroon a high overall risk of debt distress and a high risk of external debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does Cameroon still face high liquidity and external debt pressures despite easing overall vulnerabilities?\",\"answer\":\"External debt service-to-exports remains above its threshold for most of the projection horizon, driven by high debt-service costs and a narrow export base, even though public debt-to-GDP indicators remain relatively low and declining.\"},{\"question\":\"What main risks have increased compared with the previous DSA, and what could they affect?\",\"answer\":\"Downside risks include rising domestic social tensions and security pressures, materialization of contingent liabilities, limited export diversification, climate shocks, and external geoeconomic and financial tightening plus volatile energy prices, potentially weakening exports, financing conditions, and fiscal revenues.\"}]",1784490301,60,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"cameroon-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/cameroon-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111475/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is the overall risk rating for Cameroon’s debt sustainability in this joint analysis?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The analysis assigns Cameroon a high overall risk of debt distress and a high risk of external debt distress.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Why does Cameroon still face high liquidity and external debt pressures despite easing overall vulnerabilities?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"External debt service-to-exports remains above its threshold for most of the projection horizon, driven by high debt-service costs and a narrow export base, even though public debt-to-GDP indicators remain relatively low and declining.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What main risks have increased compared with the previous DSA, and what could they affect?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Downside risks include rising domestic social tensions and security pressures, materialization of contingent liabilities, limited export diversification, climate shocks, and external geoeconomic and financial tightening plus volatile energy prices, potentially weakening exports, financing conditions, and fiscal revenues.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,108,113,118,121,126,129,133],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & 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