[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111197-en":3,"doc-seo-111197-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111197,8796095360427,"Lucas Martin","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_994ba38a5ba835b3df7d355c54d3ed8d",8,"Research & Report","Cambodia - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Low Risk","Jointly prepared by the International Development Association and the International Monetary Fund, this debt sustainability analysis concludes that Cambodia remains at low risk of external and overall debt distress under the Low-Income Countries Debt Sustainability Framework. The baseline assumes continued economic recovery supported by manufacturing, agricultural exports, and tourism, with public and publicly guaranteed debt-to-GDP rising modestly but staying stable. Stress tests indicate vulnerability mainly through shocks in contingent liabilities, especially those related to PPPs and intensified financial market shocks.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Lalita Moorty (IDA) , and Rupa Duttagupta and Peter Dohlman (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| CAMBODIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Low |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nCambodia remains at low risk of external and overall debt distress under the Low-Income Countries Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC-DSF) .1 The current debt-carrying capacity remains consistent with a medium classification. 2 The baseline scenario assumes a continued economic recovery, largely driven by a rebound in manufacturing goods and agricultural exports and tourism. The total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise by around 4 percentage points of GDP during the next decade, but its level is expected to remain stable. The debt burden indicators are projected to remain well below their thresholds under the baseline and the shock scenarios. The stress tests shows that debt sustainability is most vulnerable to shocks in contingent liabilities.  \n1 This DSA follows the Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries ([imf.org](imf.org)), February 2018 (GN) .  \n2 Cambodia’s Composite Indicator (CI) index, based on data submitted to the October 2024 WEO and the World Bank’s 2023 CPIA, is 3.02, indicating a medium debt-carrying capacity. This is a slight reduction from the index in the 2023 DSA, which was 3.06.  \n1. The debt sustainability analysis (DSA) covers central government debt and debt guaranteed by the central government to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) . By law, state and local governments and the central bank do not engage in borrowing, and SOEs do not contract non-guaranteed loans. Currently, there are no extra-budgetary funds, and the National Social Security Fund is funded by deposits and does not constitute a liability for the general government (text table 1) . Consistent with the previous DSA, external debt is defined on a currency basis.  \n\n|  |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 | Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered |\n|  | Central government X\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) X Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) X Non-guaranteed SOE debt X |\n|  |  |\n\n2. The DSA includes contingent liability stress tests for public-private partnerships (PPPs) anda financial market shock (text table 2) .  \n• The shock scenario for the SOE debt is set to 0 percent of GDP because , by law, SOEs do not engage in non-guaranteed external borrowing , and guarantees to SOEs are included in public debt. According to the updated information provided by the authorities, the capital stock of PPPs is estimated at around 40.2 percent of GDP as of end 2023 , corresponding to a contingent liability of 14.1 percent of GDP, assuming a shock size of 35 percent of the total PPP stock.  \n• The standard financial market shock is intensified in this DSA. Specifically, the financial market shock assumes contingent liabilities from financial markets to be 10 percent of GDP , twice the default value of 5 percent of GDP.3 This change is included to account for the risks emerging from private sector debt that has continued to grow in the context of rising NPL ratio and the absence of comprehensive bank resolution framework and deposit insurance regime.  \n\n|  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 1 | The country's coverage of public debt The central government, central bank, government-guaranteed debt, non-guaranteed SOE debt |  |\n|  | Def","cbCaiv06KpU5WBDl","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiv06KpU5WBDl","pdf",672411,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment\n## External Debt Distress Risk\n## Overall Debt Distress Risk\n# Baseline and Macroeconomic Assumptions\n## Economic Recovery Drivers\n## Debt-to-GDP Path\n# Debt Coverage and Methodology\n## Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt Scope\n## Contingent Liability Treatment\n# Stress Tests and Shock Scenarios\n## PPP Contingent Liabilities\n## Financial Market Shock Intensification\n# Debt Indicators and Country Debt Composition\n## External Debt Levels and Terms\n## Domestic Debt and Local-Currency Bonds","[{\"question\":\"What is Cambodia’s risk level for external and overall debt distress under the LIC-DSF?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates both external debt distress and overall debt distress as Low risk.\"},{\"question\":\"What drives the baseline scenario assumptions for debt dynamics?\",\"answer\":\"It assumes continued economic recovery led by manufacturing goods, agricultural exports, and tourism rebound.\"},{\"question\":\"Which shocks make debt sustainability most vulnerable?\",\"answer\":\"Debt sustainability is most vulnerable to shocks in contingent liabilities, particularly those linked to PPPs and the intensified financial market shock scenario.\"}]",1784489066,48,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"cambodia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-risk","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/cambodia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-risk/111197/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is Cambodia’s risk level for external and overall debt distress under the LIC-DSF?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The analysis rates both external debt distress and overall debt distress as Low risk.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"What drives the baseline scenario assumptions for debt dynamics?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"It assumes continued economic recovery led by manufacturing goods, agricultural exports, and tourism rebound.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Which shocks make debt sustainability most vulnerable?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Debt sustainability is most vulnerable to shocks in contingent liabilities, particularly those linked to PPPs and the intensified financial market shock 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