[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111128-en":3,"doc-seo-111128-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111128,549758146520,"Patrick","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80002397d8c0411e94?_k=1775819394049821470",8,"Research & Report","CAMBODIA - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Low risk of debt distress","Cambodia remains under the Low-Income Countries Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC-DSF) with low risk of external and overall debt distress. The baseline scenario assumes steady recovery supported by tourism and manufacturing exports, keeping key debt-burden indicators below thresholds while the total PPG debt-to-GDP ratio rises modestly over the next decade. Vulnerability persists under stress tests, especially shocks to exports and growth, with intensified assumptions for financial market contingent liabilities.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nLalita Moorty and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Sanjaya Panth and Peter Dohlman (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| CAMBODIA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Low |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nCambodia remains at low risk of external and overall debt distress under the Low-Income Countries Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC-DSF) . 1 The current debt-carrying capacity remains consistent with a medium classification. 2 The baseline scenario assumes a steady economic recovery, largely driven by a rebound in tourism sector and manufacturing goods exports. The total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise by around 4 percentage points of GDP during the next decade, but its level is set to remain stable. Moreover, the debt burden indicators are projected to remain well below their thresholds under the baseline and the shock scenarios. However, the stress tests shows that debt sustainability remains vulnerable to shocks in exports and growth.  \n1 This DSA follows the Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries ([imf.org](imf.org)), February 2018 (GN) .  \n2 Cambodia’s Composite Indicator (CI) index, based on the October 2023 WEO update and the World Bank’s 2022 CPIA, is  \n3.06. This is the first “signal” indicating that the country’s debt-carrying capacity changes from a medium to strong classification. As indicated in the guidance note, two consecutive signals are needed to change the classification .  \n1. The DSA covers central government debt and debt guaranteed by the central government to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) . By law, state and local governments and the central bank do not engage in borrowing, and SOEs do not contract non-guaranteed loans. Currently, there are no extrabudgetary funds, and the National Social Security Fund is funded by deposits and does not constitute aliability for the general government (text table 1) . Consistent with the previous DSA, external debt is defined on a currency basis.  \n2. The DSA includes contingent liability stress tests for PPPs and a financial market shock  \n(text table 2) .  \n• The shock scenario for the SOE debt is set to 0 percent of GDP because , by law, SOEs do not engage in non-guaranteed external borrowing , and guarantees to SOEs are included in public debt. According to the World Bank’s Private Participation in Infrastructure Project Database and information provided by the authorities, the capital stock of PPPs is estimated at 20.7 percent of GDP as end of 2022 , corresponding to a contingent liability of 7.3 percent of GDP.  \n• The standard financial market shock is intensified in this DSA. Specifically, the financial market shock assumes contingent liabilities from financial markets to be 10 percent of GDP, twice the default value of 5 percent of GDP. This change is included to account for the risks emerging from private sector debt that has continued to grow steadily and reached 160 percent of GDP.  \n\n|  |\n| --- |\n|  |\n\n3. Cambodia’s external public debt amounted to around US$ 9.97 billion (35 percent of GDP) by end-2022 . The external debt-to-GDP ratio decreased slightly in 2022, by 1.1 percentage points, as GDP growth increased (text figure 1) .3 Bilateral debt continues to account for around 70 percent of total external debt, with more than half owed to China (text table 3) .4 External debt has been accrued on concessional terms, with a present value of around 21 percent of GDP at end-2022.  \n4. Public domestic debt remains negligible.  \nTo support financial market development, the authorities started to issue local-currency government bonds in September 2022.5 The total ","cbCaiquG0GNUT1qz","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiquG0GNUT1qz","pdf",2906309,1,18,"English","en",105,"# Debt distress risk assessment\n## Baseline scenario assumptions\n## Stress tests and vulnerabilities\n## Scope and coverage of the analysis\n## Debt composition and key indicators\n## Domestic debt and market measures","[{\"question\":\"What is Cambodia’s assessed risk of external and overall debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Both external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk are rated as low under the LIC-DSF framework.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors underpin the baseline debt sustainability outlook?\",\"answer\":\"The baseline assumes steady economic recovery, mainly from a rebound in tourism and exports of manufactured goods, with debt burden indicators staying below thresholds.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the document state that debt sustainability is still vulnerable despite a low risk rating?\",\"answer\":\"Stress tests indicate vulnerability to shocks in exports and growth, even though indicators remain below thresholds in the baseline and shock scenarios.\"}]",1784488728,45,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"cambodia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-risk-of-debt-distress","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/cambodia-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-risk-of-debt-distress/111128/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is Cambodia’s assessed risk of external and overall debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Both external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk are rated as low under the LIC-DSF framework.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which factors underpin the baseline debt sustainability outlook?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The baseline assumes steady economic recovery, mainly from a rebound in tourism and exports of manufactured goods, with debt burden indicators staying below thresholds.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why does the document state that debt sustainability is still vulnerable despite a low risk rating?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Stress tests indicate vulnerability to shocks in exports and growth, even though indicators remain below thresholds in the baseline and shock 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