[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111482-en":3,"doc-seo-111482-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111482,8796095462418,"Noah","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80000253c1241d02b47?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1778826106357471780",8,"Research & Report","Cabo Verde - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Cabo Verde’s external debt distress risk is assessed as moderate, while the overall risk of debt distress remains high in the joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis. External distress ratings reflect limited space to absorb shocks, and liquidity indicators stay below thresholds under the baseline due to highly concessional external debt. However, PV public and publicly guaranteed external debt-to-GDP breaches thresholds under export stress and PV total public debt-to-GDP breaches during 2024–2029, driven by uncalled domestically guaranteed SOE and municipal debt.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA), and Costas Christou and Niamh Sheridan (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| CABO VERDE: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nCabo Verde's external debt risk continues to be moderate consistent with the last joint WB/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) of January 2024, 1 while the overall risk of debt distress remains high. Coverage of the public sector has been expanded to include the stock of uncalled domestically guaranteed debt to lossmaking SOEs and municipalities. The detailed risk rating for external debt distress shows limited room to absorb shocks. The present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP is below the threshold over the forecast horizon and breaches the threshold under the export stress test in line with the debt path of the last DSA. Liquidity indicators (debt service to revenue and to export ratios) continue to be below their respective thresholds under the baseline mainly due to the significantly concessional characteristics of Cabo Verde’s external debt. The PV of total public debt-to-GDP is projected to breach the threshold during 2024–2029 under the baseline scenario--a longer period relative to previous DSA--due to the inclusion of the stock of uncalled domestically guaranteed debt to State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and breaches the threshold under the stress tests over the forecast period.  \n1 Cabo Verde’s debt-carrying capacity is assessed as “strong” as in the previous DSA with a composite index (CI) score of 3.26, which is based on the October 2024 WEO and the 2023 CPIA.  \nThe external and overall debt outlook is assessed to be sustainable contingent on meeting several assumptions. These include steady economic growth around potential, consistent fiscal consolidation in line with the ECF program, and structural reforms, especially related to SOEs. Enhancing the performance of SOEs will help reduce critical fiscal risks and foster a better business environment. Prudent borrowing policies through sourcing mainly concessional external loans and strengthened debt management, as well as measures to enhance the functioning of the government securities market are critical to sustainable debt dynamics overtime. In view of Cabo Verde’s vulnerability to exogenous shocks, continuous progress in export and output diversification is also needed for long-term debt sustainability.  \n1. The debt coverage in this DSA comprises debt owed by the central government and certain government guarantees. Coverage of the public sector has been expanded to include the stock of uncalled domestically guaranteed debt to loss-making SOEs (8 percent of GDP at end-2023)2 and municipalities (0 .2 percent of GDP at end-2023) . This aligns with the treatment of government guarantees on SOEs’ external borrowing, which were already included in the baseline stock of debt (0 .7 percent of GDP at end-2023) . Consistent with the fiscal accounts, social security funds and local governments are excluded from the DSA. The coverage of extra budgetary funds (EBFs) is focused on government support to State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) through on-lending and capitalization. The authorities have undertaken important efforts to widen the coverage and reporting of public sector debt, including through support from the World Bank. 3 External debt is defined on a residency basis.  \n2. The contingent liability default stress test is modified from the last DSA reflecting the inclusion of domestically guaranteed debt of SOEs in the DSA perimeter. The default shock of  \n0 percent of GDP for the components of general","cbCaig3CcR1s0TxE","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaig3CcR1s0TxE","pdf",1766491,1,27,"English","en",105,"# Key risk findings\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n# Debt coverage and methodology\n## Expanded public sector coverage\n## Definitions and exclusions\n# Liquidity and threshold breaches\n## Baseline vs stress test results\n## Public and publicly guaranteed debt thresholds\n# Sustainability outlook and policy assumptions\n## Growth, fiscal consolidation, and reforms\n## Borrowing strategy and debt management\n# Contingent liability stress tests\n## Tailored shock for SOE guarantees\n## Treatment of social security funds","[{\"question\":\"How are Cabo Verde’s external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk assessed?\",\"answer\":\"External debt distress risk is assessed as moderate, consistent with the prior January 2024 joint DSA. Overall risk of debt distress remains high despite that moderate external assessment.\"},{\"question\":\"Why do liquidity indicators remain below their thresholds in the baseline scenario?\",\"answer\":\"Liquidity indicators such as debt service-to-revenue and debt service-to-export ratios remain below thresholds mainly because Cabo Verde’s external debt has significantly concessional characteristics.\"},{\"question\":\"Which scenarios lead to threshold breaches for debt ratios?\",\"answer\":\"PV public and publicly guaranteed external debt-to-GDP stays below the threshold on the baseline horizon but breaches it under the export stress test. PV total public debt-to-GDP is projected to breach the threshold during 2024–2029 under the baseline and under stress tests over the forecast period.\"}]",1784490335,68,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"cabo-verde-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/cabo-verde-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111482/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"How are Cabo Verde’s external debt distress risk and overall debt distress risk assessed?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"External debt distress risk is assessed as moderate, consistent with the prior January 2024 joint DSA. Overall risk of debt distress remains high despite that moderate external assessment.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why do liquidity indicators remain below their thresholds in the baseline scenario?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Liquidity indicators such as debt service-to-revenue and debt service-to-export ratios remain below thresholds mainly because Cabo Verde’s external debt has significantly concessional characteristics.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Which scenarios lead to threshold breaches for debt ratios?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"PV public and publicly guaranteed external debt-to-GDP stays below the threshold on the baseline horizon but breaches it under the export stress test. PV total public debt-to-GDP is projected to breach the threshold during 2024–2029 under the baseline and under stress tests over the forecast period.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]