[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111173-en":3,"doc-seo-111173-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111173,34359740700684,"Finn","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1f400023980c374ae676?_k=1777273430885731487",8,"Research & Report","Cabo Verde - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt Distress Risk Assessment","Cabo Verde’s external debt remains sustainable but is vulnerable, with the risk of external debt distress assessed as moderate while the overall risk of debt distress is rated high. The analysis highlights limited capacity to absorb shocks due to constrained external-debt shock granularity. Domestic public debt vulnerabilities are elevated, reflected in high domestic public debt-to-GDP and debt service-to-revenues ratios. Liquidity indicators stay below thresholds under the baseline, but public debt-to-GDP breaches thresholds during 2025–2029 and under stress tests.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA) , and Costas Christou and Niamh Sheridan (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| CABO VERDE: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nCabo Verde's external debt remains sustainable but vulnerable. The risk of external debt distress continues to be moderate, consistent with the last joint WB/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) of February 2025, while the overall risk of debt distress is assessed as high. The vulnerability of domestic public debt as shown by elevated both domestic public debt-to-GDP ratio and debt service-to-revenues ratio (including grants) is high. Coverage of the public sector includes the stock of uncalled domestically guaranteed debt to loss-making SOEs and municipalities. The detailed risk rating for external debt distress shows limited room to absorb shocks. The present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP is below the threshold over the forecast horizon and breaches the threshold under the export stress test in line with the debt path of the last DSA. Liquidity indicators (debt service to revenue and to export ratios) continue to be below their respective thresholds under the baseline, mainly due to the significantly concessional characteristics of Cabo Verde’s external debt. The PV of total public debt-to-GDP is projected to breach the threshold during 2025–2029 under the baseline scenario in line with the last DSA and breaches the threshold under the stress tests over the forecast period 1.  \n1 Cabo Verde’ debt carrying capacity is assessed as strong, given a Composite Indicator of 3.30 based on October 2025 WEO projections and the 2024 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) .  \nThe external and overall debt outlook is assessed to be sustainable, contingent on sustained growth close to potential, fiscal consolidation in line with the ECF-supported program, and progress on structural reforms, particularly strengthening SOE performance to mitigate fiscal risks and enhance the business climate. Maintaining this outlook will also require adherence to prudent borrowing policies with a focus on concessional financing. Given Cabo Verde’s vulnerability to external shocks, further export and output diversification will be critical to safeguard long-term debt sustainability.  \n1. The debt coverage in this DSA comprises debt owed by the central government and certain government guarantees. Coverage of the public sector has been expanded to include the stock of uncalled domestically guaranteed debt to loss-making SOEs (7 .1 percent of GDP at end- 2024)2 and municipalities (0 .1 percent of GDP at end-2024) . The stock of government guarantees on SOEs’ external borrowing is also included in the baseline stock of debt (0 .7 percent of GDP at end- 2024) . Consistent with the fiscal accounts, social security funds and local governments are excluded from the DSA. The coverage of extra budgetary funds (EBFs) is focused on government support to State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) through on-lending and capitalization. The authorities have undertaken important efforts to widen the coverage and reporting of public sector debt, including through support from the World Bank.3 External debt is defined on a residency basis.  \n2. The contingent liability default stress test is modified from the last DSA reflecting the inclusion of domestically guaranteed debt of SOEs in the DSA perimeter. The default shock of  \n0 percent of GDP for the components of general government not captured in the baseline stock of debt is kept at the default level consistent with the size of public","cbCaiaiGwkYocQCs","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiaiGwkYocQCs","pdf",2028268,1,22,"English","en",105,"# Risk Assessment Summary\n## External Debt Distress Risk\n## Overall Debt Distress Risk\n# Debt Sustainability Outlook and Drivers\n## Baseline Liquidity vs. Stress Tests\n## Debt Coverage and Contingent Liabilities\n# Policy Implications","[{\"question\":\"How is Cabo Verde’s external debt distress risk assessed in the joint analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The risk of external debt distress is assessed as moderate, while the overall risk of debt distress is rated high.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is the overall risk of debt distress considered high despite external sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Vulnerabilities in domestic public debt are elevated, including higher domestic public debt-to-GDP and debt service-to-revenues ratios. Liquidity remains manageable under baseline conditions, but debt paths breach thresholds under stress testing.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors support the conclusion that the debt outlook is sustainable?\",\"answer\":\"Sustained growth near potential, fiscal consolidation aligned with the ECF-supported program, and progress on structural reforms—especially strengthening SOE performance—are cited as key conditions.\"}]",1784488951,55,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"cabo-verde-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/cabo-verde-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111173/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"How is Cabo Verde’s external debt distress risk assessed in the joint analysis?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The risk of external debt distress is assessed as moderate, while the overall risk of debt distress is rated high.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why is the overall risk of debt distress considered high despite external sustainability?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Vulnerabilities in domestic public debt are elevated, including higher domestic public debt-to-GDP and debt service-to-revenues ratios. Liquidity remains manageable under baseline conditions, but debt paths breach thresholds under stress testing.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What factors support the conclusion that the debt outlook is sustainable?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Sustained growth near potential, fiscal consolidation aligned with the ECF-supported program, and progress on structural reforms—especially strengthening SOE performance—are cited as key conditions.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]