[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110497-en":3,"doc-seo-110497-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},110497,8796095462418,"Noah","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/80000253c1241d02b47?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1778826106357471780",8,"Research & Report","Burundi - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - October 2021","Burundi faces a high risk of external and overall debt distress under the baseline. Multiple debt-burden indicators breach their respective thresholds, with a significant and prolonged gap in the PV of public debt-to-GDP. External indicators are comparatively mild, though they remain near the threshold. Stress tests show external sustainability is highly sensitive to export shocks, while overall sustainability is most vulnerable to real GDP growth shocks. The assessment judges debt sustainable under fiscal consolidation, donor financing expectations, and improving revenue collection, but highlights material risks from delayed reforms, incomplete arrears information, and prolonged COVID-19 impacts.","Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nBURUNDI  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nOctober 2021  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \nApproved by Marcello Estevão, Asad Alam (IDA); Dhaneshwar Ghura, Anna Ilyina (IMF)  \n\n| Burundi: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nBurundi is at high risk of external and overall debt distress.1 Two external debt burden indicatorsand one overall public debt indicator breach the respective thresholds under the baseline, signaling a high risk of debt distress rating for external and overall public debt. The breach in the PV of the public debt-to-GDP ratio is significant and protracted. The breaches in the external debt indicators under the baseline are mild, and the indicators fall below but near the threshold in the medium term. Stress tests find that external debt sustainability is particularly vulnerable to shocks to  \n1 Burundi’s debt-carrying capacity is classified as weak just as in the last (March 2015) DSA. The country’s composite indicator (CI) is 1.95, based on the April 2021 WEO data and 2019 CPIA scores. The March 2015 DSA found the risk of external debt distress as high. While no significant vulnerabilities related to public domestic debt or private external debt were observed in the baseline, in the most extreme shock scenario, the PV of public debt-to-GDP ratio breached its benchmark in the short run highlighting the need for prudent fiscal and debt policies.  \nexports, while overall public debt sustainability is most vulnerable to shocks to real GDP growth. Staff assesses Burundi’s debt as sustainable based on the authorities’ commitment to fiscal consolidation from unwinding ofCOVID-related spending and moderate improvement in revenue collection, expectations of donor financing, and a positive macroeconomic outlook, including robust exports and GDP growth. Prospects for re-engagement with the international community and availability of grants and concessional loans to finance high-return projects would be beneficial for the country’s growth and debt outlook, while further flexibility in exchange rate management and other reforms to enhance competitiveness would improve the growth outlook. With these assumptions and given the country’s good track record in servicing its debt, there is a high likelihood that Burundi will be able to meet all its current and future financial obligations. This assessment is subject to significant risks. Delays in fiscal consolidation, delays in structural reforms to boost exports and growth, lack of up-to-date information on arrears and a prolonged COVID-19 shock would heighten debt vulnerabilities. Burundi’s debt is vulnerable especially to exports and growth shocks. Stronger GDP growth supported by prospects of stronger low-cost donor financing and the new SDR allocation (SDR 147.6 million equivalent to 6.6 percent of GDP) mitigate debt vulnerabilities.  \nBACKGROUND  \nPublic Debt Coverage  \n1. Public debt coverage includes external and domestic debt of the central government (Text Table 1). Data limitations prevent expanding public debt coverage to other entities of the general government or State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) . 2 However, they are not likely to represent a major contingent external liability for the government as subnational government entities and SOEs cannot take up external debt without a government guarantee. They can borrow in domestic markets without central government guarantees; however, this is limited by guarantee requirements—a physical guarantee is required for loans higher than BIF 5 million. Central bank debt is excluded from coverage,","cbCaidUGGX7IJ6Pb","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaidUGGX7IJ6Pb","pdf",457582,3,1,25,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment\n## Debt distress rating\n## Stress test vulnerabilities\n# Background\n## Public debt coverage\n## Contingent liability stress test\n## Data limitations and financial sector liabilities","[{\"question\":\"How is Burundi’s debt distress risk rated in the analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis rates Burundi at high risk of both external and overall debt distress under the baseline scenario.\"},{\"question\":\"Which indicators drive the high-risk conclusion?\",\"answer\":\"Two external debt burden indicators and one overall public debt indicator breach their thresholds, with the PV of the public debt-to-GDP ratio showing a significant and protracted breach.\"},{\"question\":\"What shocks most threaten Burundi’s debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"External sustainability is most vulnerable to shocks to exports, while overall public debt sustainability is most vulnerable to shocks to real GDP growth.\"}]","Burundi - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - October 2021 | PDF",1784485707,63,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"burundi-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-october-2021","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,51],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/burundi-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-october-2021/110497/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"How is Burundi’s debt distress risk rated in the analysis?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"The analysis rates Burundi at high risk of both external and overall debt distress under the baseline scenario.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Which indicators drive the high-risk conclusion?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"Two external debt burden indicators and one overall public debt indicator breach their thresholds, with the PV of the public debt-to-GDP ratio showing a significant and protracted breach.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What shocks most threaten Burundi’s debt sustainability?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"External sustainability is most vulnerable to shocks to exports, while overall public debt sustainability is most vulnerable to shocks to real GDP growth.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]