[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110548-en":3,"doc-seo-110548-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},110548,8796095461610,"Oliver","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","Burundi - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - High Risk of External and Overall Debt Distress","Burundi faces a high risk of external and overall debt distress under the baseline scenario. One external debt burden indicator breaches its threshold, while the breach in the PV of the public debt-to-GDP ratio remains significant and protracted through the horizon, despite a declining trend. Stress tests indicate the largest deterioration stems from shocks to exports and the exchange rate, and for overall indicators from shocks to GDP growth, commodity prices, and the exchange rate. Staff judges the debt sustainable due to fiscal consolidation, improved revenue collection, donor financing expectations, and a positive macroeconomic outlook.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Marcello Estevão (IDA); and Costas Christou and Anna Ilyina (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| BURUNDI: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nBurundi is at high risk of external and overall debt distress. 1 One external debt burden indicator (the ratio of external debt service to exports) breaches its threshold under the baseline, signaling a high risk of external debt distress rating. The external debt indicators under the baseline fall below their thresholds in the medium term. The breach in the PV of the public debt-to-GDP ratio under the baseline is significant and protracted and remains above the threshold until end of the horizon, implying that the risk of overall public debt distress is high. However, the indicator is on a declining trend. Stress tests show that the largest deterioration in external debt burden indicators result from shocks to the exports and exchange rate, the latter triggering a deterioration for one year. Similarly, the largest deterioration in overall debt burden indicators result from a shock to the GDP growth, commodity prices, and exchange rate, the effects of the latter receding by mid-long term. Staff assesses Burundi’s debt as sustainable based on the authorities’ commitment to fiscal consolidation from the unwinding of COVID-related spending and improvement in revenue collection, expectations of donor financing, and a positive macroeconomic outlook, including robust exports and GDP growth. The GDP rebasing, which will likely raise GDP estimates and improve public debt ratios, which are already on a declining trend, is an additional mitigating factor. Given the country’s good track record in servicing its debt, there is a high likelihood that  \n1 Burundi’s debt-carrying capacity is classified as weak just as in the last (October 2021) DSA. The country’s composite indicator (CI) is 2.06, based on the April 2022 WEO data and 2020 CPIA scores. The October 2021 DSA found the risk of external and overall debt distress as high, with the following characterization. Two external debt burden indicators (PV of external debt-to-exports and debt service-to-exports ratios) and one overall public debt indicator (PV of debt-to-GDP ratio) breached the respective thresholds under the baseline, with the breach of the public debt indicator being significant and protracted. The breaches of external debt indicators were mild, and the indicators fell below but near the threshold in the medium term. Burundi’s debt was assessed as sustainable based on the authorities’ commitment to fiscal consolidation from unwinding of COVID-related spending, moderate improvement in revenue collection, expectations of stronger donor financing, and a positive macroeconomic outlook, including robust exports and GDP growth.  \nBurundi will be able to meet all its current and future financial obligations. Prospects of a more ambitious reform agenda, notably in relaxing FX access limitations will also help alleviate key growth bottlenecks. This assessment is subject to significant risks. Delays in fiscal consolidation, delays in structural reforms to enhance competitiveness and boost exports and growth, including through exchange rate unification and greater flexibility in exchange rate management, lack of up-to-date information on arrears, and a prolonged COVID-19 shock or war in Ukraine would further heighten debt vulnerabilities. Burundi’s public debt is especially vulnerable to shocks to the exchange rate, non-debt creating flows, commodity prices, exports, and GDP growth. Further availability of grants and concessional loans to finance high-return projects, as ","cbCaijrdAG6oSQ8b","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaijrdAG6oSQ8b","pdf",738819,4,1,24,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment\n## Baseline results\n## Stress tests and vulnerabilities\n# Debt sustainability judgment\n## Mitigating factors\n## Key risks and scenario drivers\n# Debt coverage and methodology notes\n## Public and external debt scope\n## Contingent liabilities and limitations","[{\"question\":\"What is Burundi’s assessed risk of debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Burundi’s risk of external debt distress and overall debt distress is assessed as High under the baseline.\"},{\"question\":\"Which shocks cause the largest deterioration in the debt indicators?\",\"answer\":\"External debt burden indicators deteriorate most from shocks to exports and the exchange rate. Overall debt burden indicators deteriorate most from shocks to GDP growth, commodity prices, and the exchange rate.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does staff still judge Burundi’s debt as sustainable?\",\"answer\":\"Staff assesses sustainability based on fiscal consolidation from unwinding COVID-related spending, improved revenue collection, expectations of donor financing, and a positive macroeconomic outlook with robust exports and GDP growth, supported by GDP rebasing as an additional mitigating factor.\"}]","Burundi - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - High Risk of External and Overall Debt Distress | PDF",1784485945,60,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"burundi-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-of-external-and-overall-debt-distress","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/burundi-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-high-risk-of-external-and-overall-debt-distress/110548/",{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"What is Burundi’s assessed risk of debt distress?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"Burundi’s risk of external debt distress and overall debt distress is assessed as High under the baseline.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Which shocks cause the largest deterioration in the debt indicators?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"External debt burden indicators deteriorate most from shocks to exports and the exchange rate. Overall debt burden indicators deteriorate most from shocks to GDP growth, commodity prices, and the exchange rate.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"Why does staff still judge Burundi’s debt as sustainable?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"Staff assesses sustainability based on fiscal consolidation from unwinding COVID-related spending, improved revenue collection, expectations of donor financing, and a positive macroeconomic outlook with robust exports and GDP growth, supported by GDP rebasing as an additional mitigating factor.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":30,"slug":109},5,"Comic","comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]