[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110268-en":3,"doc-seo-110268-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110268,1649267921044,"Ava Thompson","https://us-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1800007509477c92dfb?_k=1782875107921204101",8,"Research & Report","Burundi - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - DSA","Burundi’s Debt Sustainability Analysis assesses external and overall debt distress risk as high, with the July 2022 assessment unchanged. Under the baseline, most external debt burden indicators breach thresholds in the medium term, while public debt risk remains elevated in the near-to-medium horizon but declines later. Stress tests indicate the largest deterioration from export shocks and combined shocks to growth, primary balance, exports, non-debt flows, the exchange rate, and contingent liabilities. Staff judges debt as sustainable given reform commitments, exchange rate reform, fiscal consolidation, governance improvements, and a positive macroeconomic outlook supported by exports and growth.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAsad Alam and Manuela Francisco (IDA); Costas Christou and Boileau Loko (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| BURUNDI: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | High |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nThe Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses Burundi at high risk of external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the July 2022 DSA.1 All four external debt burden indicators breach their thresholds under the baseline, signaling a high risk of external debt distress rating. The ratios of the PV of debt to GDP, PV of debt to exports and debt service to revenue under the baseline fall below their threshold in the medium term. The ratio of external debt service to exports under the baseline remains close to its threshold. As for the public debt, the PV of the public debt-to-GDP ratio under the baseline is above the benchmark in the near-to-medium term, implying that the risk of overall public debt distress is high. However, the indicator is on a declining trend and falls below its benchmark in the medium-to-long term. Stress tests show that the largest deterioration in external debt burden indicators result from shocks to the exports and a combination of shocks to growth, primary balance, exports, non-debt flows and the exchange rate. Similarly, the largest deterioration in the overall debt burden indicators results from shocks to combined contingent liabilities. Staff assesses Burundi’s debt as sustainable based on the authorities’ commitment to reforms under the program including exchange rate reform, fiscal consolidation, and structural and governance reforms, as well as a positive macroeconomic outlook, including robust exports and GDP growth. There are several mitigating factors: (i) rebased GDP series (release planned for 2023) may result in an upward shift in nominal GDP; and (ii) higher exports and remittances under the impulse of the Exchange Rate (ER) realignment would alleviate external liquidity constraints. The modified sustainability indicators accounting for these mitigating factors converge towards their  \n1 Burundi’s debt-carrying capacity is classified as weak just as in the last (July 2022) DSA. The country’s composite indicator  \n(CI) is 2.40, based on the April 2023 WEO data and 2021 CPIA scores.  \nrespective thresholds at the end of the horizon period. Given the country’s good track record in servicing its external debt, there is a high likelihood that Burundi will be able to meet all its current and future financial obligations. Prospects of a more ambitious reform agenda, notably in promoting exports and private sector led growth, will also help alleviate key growth bottlenecks. This assessment is subject to significant risks. Delays in reforms, potential information gapson arrears, and a prolonged Russia's invasion of Ukraine would further heighten debt vulnerabilities. Burundi’s public debt is especially vulnerable to shocks to combined contingent liabilities, non-debt creating flows, commodity prices, exports, and GDP growth. Further availability of grants and concessional loans to finance high-return projects, as donor operations scale up in tune with the re-engagement with the international community, would be beneficial for the country’s growth and debt outlook.  \n1. Public debt coverage includes the external and domestic debt of the central government  \n(Text Table 1) . Despite recent progress (para. 2), data limitations prevent expanding public debt coverage to other entities of the general government or State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) .2 Contingent external liabilities from subnational government entities and SOEs are limited by the fact that they cannot borrow externally without","cbCaifjRj00FX1dy","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaifjRj00FX1dy","pdf",802756,1,28,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress\n## External debt distress indicators\n## Overall public debt distress and benchmarks\n## Stress tests and key shock channels\n## Mitigating factors and reform outlook\n# Data coverage and contingent liabilities\n## Public debt coverage scope\n## SOE and guarantee considerations\n## Central bank and external debt definitions","[{\"question\":\"What is Burundi’s risk rating for external and overall debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Burundi is rated at high risk of external debt distress and high risk of overall debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Which shocks drive the largest deterioration in debt burden indicators?\",\"answer\":\"The largest deterioration comes from shocks to exports and from combined shocks affecting growth, primary balance, exports, non-debt flows, the exchange rate, and contingent liabilities for the overall indicators.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does staff still judge Burundi’s debt as sustainable?\",\"answer\":\"Staff assesses debt as sustainable based on authorities’ reform commitments (including exchange rate reform and fiscal consolidation) and a positive macroeconomic outlook with robust exports and GDP growth, alongside mitigating factors reflected in modified indicators.\"}]",1784484644,71,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"burundi-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-dsa","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/burundi-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-dsa/110268/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is Burundi’s risk rating for external and overall debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Burundi is rated at high risk of external debt distress and high risk of overall debt distress.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Which shocks drive the largest deterioration in debt burden indicators?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The largest deterioration comes from shocks to exports and from combined shocks affecting growth, primary balance, exports, non-debt flows, the exchange rate, and contingent liabilities for the overall indicators.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"Why does staff still judge Burundi’s debt as sustainable?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Staff assesses debt as sustainable based on authorities’ reform commitments (including exchange rate reform and fiscal consolidation) and a positive macroeconomic outlook with robust exports and GDP growth, alongside mitigating factors reflected in modified indicators.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]