[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111574-en":3,"doc-seo-111574-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111574,1099514068035,"Ezra","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","BURKINA FASO - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - External and overall risk assessment","Burkina Faso faces a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress, with debt levels assessed as sustainable in the medium term. The analysis assigns low risk to external and public debt indicators using mechanical signals, while judgment is applied due to strong gold export dependence, fiscal downside risks, and a volatile security environment. Debt-carrying capacity corresponds to a medium classification, and uncertainty remains high around projections. A contingent liability stress test incorporates guarantees and other uncovered exposures.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Abebe Adugna (IDA), and Annalisa Fedelino and Bergljot Barkbu (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| BURKINA FASO: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks. |\n| Application of judgment | Yes: risks of external and overall public debt distress raised due to volatile security situation, fiscal risks tilted to the downside, and high dependence on gold exports. |\n\nBurkina Faso remains at moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress.2 Debt levels are sustainable over the medium term. The current debt-carrying capacity is consistent with a classification of ’medium.’ All external and public debt indicators are evaluated at low risk of debt distress based on mechanical signals. Judgment continues tobe applied—as in the previous DSA—due to strong gold exports dependence, downside risks to the fiscal sector, including from the rollover of domestic debt, and the volatile security situation. There is a high level of uncertainty surrounding projections  \n1 This DSA was prepared jointly with the World Bank and in collaboration with the Burkina Faso authorities.  \n2 Burkina Faso’s Composite Indicator (CI) is 2.86, corresponding to a ‘Medium’ debt-carrying capacity. The Composite Indicator is calculated using data from the October 2024 WEO and the 2023 World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) .  \n1 >>>   \n1. Public debt covers central government debt and central bank debt for the purpose of this DSA (Text Table 1) .3 Central bank debt borrowed on behalf of the government (i.e. , credit outstanding to the IMF) is included as external debt. As data for SOEs, local governments as well as on guarantees to the private sector are not entirely comprehensive, the analysis relies on estimates of this debt to calibrate a combined contingent liability stress test. Due to a narrower public debt data coverage, the test is now more stringent than in previous analyses. Staff will aim to expand the debt data coverage for the next DSA subject to data availability.  \n\n|  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  | 1\u003Cbr>2\u003Cbr>3\u003Cbr>4\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>6\u003Cbr>7\u003Cbr>8 | Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered |  |\n|  |  | Central government X\u003Cbr>State and local government\u003Cbr>Other elements in the general government\u003Cbr>o/w: Social security fund\u003Cbr>o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs)\u003Cbr>Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs)\u003Cbr>Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) X Non-guaranteed SOE debt |  |\n|  |  |  |  |\n\n2. A contingent liabilities stress test with a shock of 9.6 percent of GDP was conducted. The test is tailored to capture elements that are not covered by the definition of public debt in the baseline scenario. A 1 .5-percent of GDP shock is included as a contingent liability to account for possible guarantees to the private sector (Text Table 2) . The default shock of 2 percent of GDP for SOEs debt is increased to 3.1 percent of GDP to reflect the official estimate of SOEs debt at end-2024 . Government guarantees on external debt of SOEs are reportedly negligible, not exceeding an estimated 0.2 percent of GDP at end 2024. No shock is used to account for PPPs, as PPPs are less than 5 percent of GDP. For the financial market shock, the default value of 5 percent of GDP is retained, representing the average burden of a financial crisis.  \n| 1 | The country's coverage of public debt | The central government, central bank |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  |  | Default | Used for the\u003Cbr>analysis\u003Cbr>Reasons for deviations from the default settings |\n| 2 | Other elements of the general government not captured in 1.","cbCaiaw4GIRDKbeH","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiaw4GIRDKbeH","pdf",1730285,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Executive assessment\n## Risk ratings and judgment factors\n# Debt coverage and methodology\n## Public debt scope and data limitations\n## Contingent liabilities stress test\n# Debt levels and shocks\n## Historical debt indicators (2018-2024)","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Burkina Faso in this joint DSA?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is assessed as moderate for both external and overall public debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the assessment use judgment instead of relying only on mechanical signals?\",\"answer\":\"Judgment is applied due to risks linked to a volatile security situation, fiscal downside risks (including domestic debt rollover), and high dependence on gold exports.\"},{\"question\":\"How is the contingent liabilities stress test designed?\",\"answer\":\"A contingent liabilities stress test uses a shock tailored to exposures not fully covered in baseline public debt definitions, including a 1.5% of GDP shock for guarantees to the private sector and an increased SOE-related shock reflecting estimated SOE debt at end-2024.\"}]",1784490745,50,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"burkina-faso-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-and-overall-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/burkina-faso-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-and-overall-risk-assessment/111574/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Burkina Faso in this joint DSA?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The overall risk of debt distress is assessed as moderate for both external and overall public debt distress.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why does the assessment use judgment instead of relying only on mechanical signals?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Judgment is applied due to risks linked to a volatile security situation, fiscal downside risks (including domestic debt rollover), and high dependence on gold exports.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"How is the contingent liabilities stress test designed?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"A contingent liabilities stress test uses a shock tailored to exposures not fully covered in baseline public debt definitions, including a 1.5% of GDP shock for guarantees to the private sector and an increased SOE-related shock reflecting estimated SOE debt at 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