[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-108232-en":3,"doc-seo-108232-105":30,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":28,"read_time":29},108232,962075006959,"Anda","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/e0002397efbe92a78e?_k=1776741047341049297",8,"Research & Report","Bulgaria Country Economic Memorandum - A Path to High Income - December 2022","Bulgaria Country Economic Memorandum explores how Bulgaria can converge to average EU income levels within 15 years through coordinated growth policies. The report analyzes the role of accelerating private and public investment, using EU funds to support recovery, and expanding the investment scope for long-term growth. It emphasizes unleashing human capital by addressing demographic decline, improving equality of opportunities, and reforming education to meet demand for high-skilled workers. It also targets productivity growth through market reforms, reducing corruption and state capture risks, strengthening competition, and maximizing technology spillovers from FDI.","Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized  \nBulgaria  \nCountry Economic Memorandum  \nA Path to  \nHigh Income  \nDecember, 2022  \n© 2022 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW  \nWashington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000  \n[Internet: www.worldbank.org](Internet: www.worldbank.org)  \nThis work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent.  \nThe World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.  \nRights and Permissions  \nThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given.  \nAny queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; [e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org](e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org).  \nTable of Contents  \nExecutive Summary 4  \nList of abbreviations 9  \nIntroduction 10  \n1. What would it take for Bulgaria to converge to average EU income levels within 15 years? 15  \n2. Accelerating private and public investments 22  \n2.1 Will EU funds stimulate a strong post-Covid-19 growth recovery period? 23  \n2.2 The scope of investment to boost long-term growth 24  \n3. Unleashing Bulgaria’s human capital potential 26  \n3.1 Negative demographic trends call for measures to enhance the quality of human capital 27  \n3.2 Human capital formation requires more equality of opportunities 28  \n3.3 Education policy reforms to match the rising demand for high-skilled employees 31  \n4. Boosting productivity growth 35  \n4.1 Market inefficiencies prevent faster private sector productivity growth 36  \n4.2 Boosting firms’ productivity also reduces their GHG emissions 40  \n4.3 Maximizing technology and knowledge spillovers from FDI 43  \n5. Shaping public institutions to enforce the growth policies needed  \nto unleash Bulgaria’s full productive potential 44  \n5.1 Boosting productivity through competition policy 45  \n5.2 Reducing the risk of corruption and state capture in public procurement 49  \n5.3 Policy privileges of few connected firms discourage productivity growth 54  \n6. Key policy options to accelerate growth 59  \nTable of Figures  \nFigure 1. While the Bulgarian economy’s business cycle has converged closer to the EU one after GFC, the gap in growth rates has narrowed implying slower income convergence to average EU levels p. 11  \nFigure 2. District-level incomes per capita have been diverging since 2000 p. 12  \nFigure 3. Without structural reforms Bulgaria will not  \nconverge to the average EU level p. 16  \nFigure 4. Bulgaria’s high growth prior to the GFC slowed as factor accumulation levelled off after 2009 p. 17  \nFigure 5. Under a moderate (ambitious) reform scenario, GDP growth accelerates to 2.9 (4.1) percent and GDP per capita growth to 3.7 (5) percent p. 19  \nFigure 6. The biggest contributors to faster growth are higher total factor productivity, increased private investment in the near-term, and stronger human capital in the long-term p. 20  \nFigure 7. Investment as a share of GDP declined in preCovid-19 years p. 22  \nFigure 8. Emigration adds to the population decline, especially in less-developed regions p. 27  \nFigure 9. Bulgaria has the highest relative inequality of opportunity among the","cbCaipZuRUEj8RbH","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaipZuRUEj8RbH","pdf",973955,4,1,66,"English","en",105,"# Executive Summary\n# Introduction\n# What would it take for Bulgaria to converge to average EU income levels within 15 years?\n# Accelerating private and public investments\n## Will EU funds stimulate a strong post-Covid-19 growth recovery period?\n## The scope of investment to boost long-term growth\n# Unleashing Bulgaria’s human capital potential\n## Negative demographic trends call for measures to enhance the quality of human capital\n## Human capital formation requires more equality of opportunities\n## Education policy reforms to match the rising demand for high-skilled employees\n# Boosting productivity growth\n## Market inefficiencies prevent faster private sector productivity growth\n## Boosting firms’ productivity also reduces their GHG emissions\n## Maximizing technology and knowledge spillovers from FDI\n# Shaping public institutions to enforce the growth policies needed to unleash Bulgaria’s full productive potential\n## Boosting productivity through competition policy\n## Reducing the risk of corruption and state capture in public procurement\n## Policy privileges of few connected firms discourage productivity growth\n# Key policy options to accelerate growth","[{\"question\":\"What is the main convergence goal for Bulgaria in this memorandum?\",\"answer\":\"To converge to average EU income levels within 15 years by implementing a set of growth, investment, human capital, and productivity policies.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the report propose accelerating private and public investment?\",\"answer\":\"It focuses on whether EU funds can stimulate a post-Covid-19 growth recovery and on expanding the overall scope of investment to support long-term growth.\"},{\"question\":\"What human-capital reforms does the memorandum recommend?\",\"answer\":\"It calls for measures to counter negative demographic trends, improve equality of opportunities in human capital formation, and reform education to meet rising demand for high-skilled 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