[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109511-en":3,"doc-seo-109511-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":93},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109511,8796095461564,"Liam","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_155a257f0dc6eb9ab79c44ca47cae57d",8,"Research & Report","Botswana - Annex 1 - Climate change modeling and adaptation impact analysis","Annex 1 presents an integrating modeling approach to quantify the economic costs of climate change and the costs and benefits of climate actions in Botswana, with emphasis on adaptation. It builds from a baseline macroeconomic scenario, selects impact channels linking climate drivers to economic outcomes, and evaluates distributional effects through an analysis of poverty impacts. The annex then identifies climate investments to support a resilient growth pathway under optimistic and pessimistic future climate scenarios.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nANNEX 1 – Modeling the Impact of Climate Change and Climate Adaptation in Botswana:  \nmacroeconomic, sector, and distribution effects  \nTo assess the economic costs of climate change, as well as the costs and benefits of climate actions, which is focused on the cost and benefits of adaptation, this CCDR used an integrating modeling approach.  \nThis approach starts by a baseline macroeconomic scenario, followed by the selection of the impact channels through which climate change impacts the economy and the quantification of the macroeconomic impacts of climate changes through those channels. An analysis of the impacts on poverty is also provided.  \nIn a second stage, the analysis focuses on identifying investments that could potentially reduce the impact of climate change for Botswana to follow a resilient growth pathway. The macroeconomic and poverty impacts of the implementation of these investments are then assessed.  \n[I] SELECTION OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS  \nFuture climate is inherently uncertain, due to variability in the earth’s physical responses, uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions trajectories, as well as uncertainty across different climate model projections for the coming decades. Available climate scenarios were first obtained from the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal for 29 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) suite of model outputs. Figure A1 . shows the projected mean temperature (left panel) and precipitation (right panel) in the country through 2100 across a range of SSP (Share Socioeconomic Pathway)-RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) combinations. The bold lines are averages across GCM projections for each of the four SSP-RCPs, and the shaded zones surrounding those lines are the full range of GCM projections.  \nFigure A1 . Projected Climate Variables Across a Range of SSP-RCPSs  \n\n|  |  |\n| --- | --- |\n|  |  |\n\nSource: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal  \nThe mean from three extreme GCM simulations were selected to represent two scenarios of a \"dry and hot\" future (pessimistic) and a \"wet and warm\" future (optimistic), predicted to occur between 2020 and 2050. The two scenarios were selected from those that fall within the 10th and 90th percentile of mean precipitation and mean temperature changes. Table A1 below shows the changes  \nin average national temperature and precipitation relative to the baseline. Mitigation scenarios show minor differences in the period up to 2050.  \nTable A1 . Change in Average National Temperature and Precipitation by Decade Relative to Baseline  \n\n| Temperature | 2021-2030 | 2031-2040 | 2041-2050 |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| Dry/hot mean | +0.99 ˚C | +1.75 ˚C | +2.43˚C |\n| Wet/warm mean | +0.57 ˚C | +0.88 ˚C | +1.16 ˚C |\n| Precipitation | 2021-2030 | 2031-2040 | 2041-2050 |\n| Dry/hot mean | -1.3% | -4.6% | -9.4% |\n| Wet/warm mean | +1.6% | +5.5% | +8.1% |\n\nSource: IEc for World Bank, 2024.  \nFigures A2 and A3 show the expected change in mean temperature and in mean precipitation by 2041-2050 across Botswana regions, respectively, with respect to the historical average (1995- 2020) .  \nFigure A2: Change in mean temperature from 2041-2050 relative to 1995-2020 by climate scenario  \nSource: IEc for World Bank, 2024.  \nFigure A3: Change in mean precipitation from 2041-2050 relative to 1995-2020 by climate scenario  \nSource: IEc for World Bank, 2024.  \n[II] CHOICE OF IMPACT CHANNELS  \nThe analysis explores baseline and adaptation scenarios under the wet/warm (optimistic) and dry/hot (pessimistic) climate futures. Climate impacts the economy through six channels:  \n1) Labor productivity  \n2) Rainfed crop yields  \n3) Livestock yields  \n4) Infrastructure damage (roads and bridges)  \n5) Tourism demand  \n6) Ecosystem services  \nRising temperatures reduce labor productivity, meaning the number of hours an individual can perform work, part","cbCaiqBslGrU6Hgu","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiqBslGrU6Hgu","pdf",714739,5,1,13,"English","en",105,"# ANNEX 1\n## Modeling approach and structure\n## Selection of climate scenarios\n## Choice of impact channels\n## Choice of climate investments to increase resilience","[{\"question\":\"What modeling approach does the annex use to assess climate change in Botswana?\",\"answer\":\"It uses an integrating modeling approach that starts from a baseline macroeconomic scenario, selects climate impact channels, quantifies macroeconomic impacts through those channels, and includes analysis of poverty effects.\"},{\"question\":\"How are the climate scenarios for the analysis selected?\",\"answer\":\"Scenarios are derived from World Bank climate data covering 29 GCMs from the CMIP6 suite, and two representative futures are chosen to reflect a “dry and hot” and a “wet and warm” pathway occurring between 2020 and 2050.\"},{\"question\":\"Which impact channels connect climate change to the economy in this analysis?\",\"answer\":\"The annex uses six channels: labor productivity, rainfed crop yields, livestock yields, infrastructure damage, tourism demand, and ecosystem services.\"}]","Botswana - Annex 1 - Climate change modeling and adaptation impact analysis | PDF",1784480498,33,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":88,"head_meta":90,"extra_data":92,"updated_unix":29},"botswana-annex-1-climate-change-modeling-and-adaptation-impact-analysis","",{"@graph":37,"@context":87},[38,55,70],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,52],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":51},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":53,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":54},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/botswana-annex-1-climate-change-modeling-and-adaptation-impact-analysis/109511/",4,{"url":53,"name":13,"@type":56,"author":57,"headline":13,"publisher":59,"fileFormat":62,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":63,"datePublished":64,"encodingFormat":62,"isAccessibleForFree":65,"interactionStatistic":66},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":58},"Person",{"url":42,"name":60,"@type":61},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-30","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":67,"interactionType":68,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":69},"ViewAction",{"@type":71,"mainEntity":72},"FAQPage",[73,79,83],{"name":74,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":76},"What modeling approach does the annex use to assess climate change in Botswana?","Question",{"text":77,"@type":78},"It uses an integrating modeling approach that starts from a baseline macroeconomic scenario, selects climate impact channels, quantifies macroeconomic impacts through those channels, and includes analysis of poverty effects.","Answer",{"name":80,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":81},"How are the climate scenarios for the analysis selected?",{"text":82,"@type":78},"Scenarios are derived from World Bank climate data covering 29 GCMs from the CMIP6 suite, and two representative futures are chosen to reflect a “dry and hot” and a “wet and warm” pathway occurring between 2020 and 2050.",{"name":84,"@type":75,"acceptedAnswer":85},"Which impact channels connect climate change to the economy in this analysis?",{"text":86,"@type":78},"The annex uses six channels: labor productivity, rainfed crop yields, livestock yields, infrastructure damage, tourism demand, and ecosystem services.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":53,"og:type":89,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":60,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":91,"canonical":53},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":94},[95,99,103,107,111,116,121,124,129,132,136],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":96,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":98},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":100,"show_sort_weight":101,"slug":102},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":54,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":104,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":106},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":133,"slug":135},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":137,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":138,"show_sort_weight":20,"slug":139},19,"General","general"]