[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110583-en":3,"doc-seo-110583-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110583,687197207639,"Asher","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_a8503ba1806abce46bf441b54a3ca4cd",8,"Research & Report","Benin - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - External and Overall Risk Moderate","Benin faces a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, consistent with the previous July 2022 DSA. Under the baseline scenario, projected external debt burden indicators remain below high-risk thresholds except for a one-time breach of the debt service-to-revenue ratio in 2030 tied to Eurobond repayment. Limited shock-absorption space persists due to high vulnerability of debt to revenue shortfalls, market sentiment shifts, and select stress-test triggers, including commodity and export shocks. Public debt ratios stay below the prudent benchmark but are exposed to natural-disaster scenarios, underscoring the need for sustained revenue mobilization, prudent borrowing, and active debt management.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAbebe Adugna and Marcello Estevão (IDA) Annalisa Fedelino and Geremia Palomba (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 1  \n\n| BENIN: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nBenin remains at moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the previous DSA (July 2022) . All projected external debt burden indicators remain below high-risk thresholds under the baseline scenario apart from a one-off breach in the debt service to revenue ratio in 2030 related to Eurobond repayment. While public debt is expected to increase in 2022 with higher financing needs and the strong appreciation of the U.S. dollar and other currencies against the CFA franc, the large component of debt denominated in euro (to which the CFA is pegged) provides a cushion. Nevertheless, the space to absorb shocks remains limited. External debt burden indicators breach high-risk thresholds in select stress tests, particularly commodity price and export-related shocks. The high debt service-to-revenue ratio continues to leave debt vulnerable to revenue underperformance or shifts in market sentiment that could increase rollover costs. Moreover, although the baseline present value (PV) of the public debt-to-GDP ratio remains below its prudent benchmark, it is vulnerable to natural disasters as illustrated by the shock scenario, based on Benin’s exposure. Sustained revenue mobilization efforts, along with continued prudent borrowing and active debt management strategy, will be important for mitigating the risk of debt distress.  \n1 Prepared by the IMF and the World Bank. This DSA follows the Guidance Note of the Join Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries , February 2018. Benin retains a medium-rated debt-carrying capacity, given the 2.99 Composite Indicator, which is based on the October 2022 WEO and the 2021 CPIA.  \n1. This Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) covers central government and central bank debt as well as guarantees provided by the central government (Text Table 1) .2 Central bank debt borrowed on behalf of the government (i.e. , debt to the IMF) is included as external debt. External debt is defined on a currency basis owing to data limitations, except for debt from the regional development bank (BOAD), which is included as external debt for the purpose of the DSA.  \n\n| \u003Cbr>1 Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered Central government X 2 State and local government 3 Other elements in the general government 4 o/w: Social security fund 5 o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) 6 Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) X 7 Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) X 8 Non-guaranteed SOE debt |\n| --- |\n| \u003Cbr> |\n\n2. Although debt coverage remains fairly comprehensive, data limitations prevent the inclusion of non-guaranteed SOE debt in the baseline. Benin received a top score for sectoral coverage on the IDA Debt Reporting heat map. Although public debt does not include non-guaranteed SOE debt, the authorities recently published the outstanding stock of non-guaranteed SOE debt (comprising 13 SOEs) in their annual fiscal risk report, which stood at 1.9 percent of GDP at end-2021. They also included details on on-lending to SOEs in quarterly debt bulletins in 2021, as part of IDA’s Sustainable Development Finance Policy (SDFP) and most recent Development Policy Operation.3 Also, under the SDFP, the Debt Management Office and the Directorate in charge of SOEs (DGPED) established a monitoring system following the adoption by ministerial order of a risk-based framework for granting SOE guar","cbCaiiS98syEasye","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiiS98syEasye","pdf",981127,1,21,"English","en",105,"# Benin: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis\n## External and overall debt distress risk\n## Baseline outlook and indicator breaches\n## Shock absorption and stress test vulnerabilities\n## Contingent liabilities and debt coverage considerations\n## Debt outlook and policy implications","[{\"question\":\"What is Benin’s risk level for external and overall debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Benin remains at a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the previous DSA.\"},{\"question\":\"Which baseline indicator breaches high-risk thresholds and why?\",\"answer\":\"A one-off breach occurs in 2030 for the debt service-to-revenue ratio, linked to Eurobond repayment; other projected external debt burden indicators stay below high-risk thresholds under the baseline.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors make Benin’s debt vulnerable despite moderate risk?\",\"answer\":\"Limited space to absorb shocks and the high debt service-to-revenue ratio increase exposure to revenue underperformance and shifts in market sentiment that can raise rollover costs. Stress tests also show breaches under commodity price and export-related shocks.\"}]",1784486105,53,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"benin-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-and-overall-risk-moderate","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/benin-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-external-and-overall-risk-moderate/110583/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is Benin’s risk level for external and overall debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Benin remains at a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the previous DSA.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Which baseline indicator breaches high-risk thresholds and why?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"A one-off breach occurs in 2030 for the debt service-to-revenue ratio, linked to Eurobond repayment; other projected external debt burden indicators stay below high-risk thresholds under the baseline.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What factors make Benin’s debt vulnerable despite moderate risk?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Limited space to absorb shocks and the high debt service-to-revenue ratio increase exposure to revenue underperformance and shifts in market sentiment that can raise rollover costs. Stress tests also show breaches under commodity price and export-related shocks.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":135,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":136,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":137},19,"General","general"]