[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111161-en":3,"doc-seo-111161-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111161,962075006959,"Anda","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/e0002397efbe92a78e?_k=1776741047341049297",8,"Research & Report","Benin - Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt distress risk assessment","Benin faces a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, unchanged since the previous debt sustainability analysis (May 2023). Under the baseline, projected external debt indicators remain below high-risk thresholds, with a one-off breach in 2030 to the debt service-to-revenue ratio driven by large Eurobond payments. Deterioration is linked to shifting from more costly domestic financing toward external borrowing under tighter regional security-market conditions, leaving limited shock-absorbing space and exposing indicators to stress-test shocks, including commodity price, export, and natural disasters. Continued revenue mobilization, prudent borrowing, active debt management, and climate mainstreaming are expected to mitigate risks.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nAbebe Adugna and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Annalisa Fedelino and Geremia Palomba (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) . 1  \n\n| BENIN: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate2 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nBenin remains at moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the previous DSA (May 2023) . All projected external debt burden indicators remain below high-risk thresholds under the baseline scenario, apart from a one-off breach to the debt service-to-revenue ratio in 2030 when large Eurobond payments are falling due. Nevertheless, external debt indicators have seen some deterioration since the previous DSA as the authorities have substitute more costly domestic financing with external borrowing amid tighter conditions on the regional security market. The space to absorb shocks remains limited. External debt burden indicators also breach high-risk thresholdsin selected stress tests, particularly commodity price, export, and natural disaster-related shocks. The high debt service-to-revenue ratio continues to leave debt vulnerable to revenue underperformance or shifts in market sentiment that could increase rollover costs. However, Benin is expected to be able to refinance payments falling due in 2024- 26. Sustained revenue mobilization efforts, along with continued prudent borrowing, active debt management strategy and mainstreaming climate change into policymaking, would mitigate the risk of debt distress. In seeking the most  \n1 Prepared by the IMF and the World Bank. This DSA follows the Guidance Note of the Join Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries  , February 2018.  \n2 Benin retains a medium-rated debt-carrying capacity, given the 2.98 Composite Indicator, which is based on the October 2023 WEO and the 2022 CPIA.  \ncost-effective financing options, the authorities should also ensure that the financing mix does not leave debt overly exposed to external risk.  \n1. This Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) covers central government and central bank debt as well as guarantees provided by the central government (Text Table 1) .3 Central bank debt borrowed on behalf of the government (i. e. , debt to the IMF) is included as external debt. External debt is defined on a currency basis owing to data limitations, except for debt from the regional development bank (BOAD), which is included as external debt for the purpose of the DSA.  \n|  | Subsectors of the public sector | Sub-sectors covered |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n|  | 1 Central government | X |\n|  | 2 State and local government |  |\n|  | 3 Other elements in the general government |  |\n|  | 4 o/w: Social security fund |  |\n|  | 5 o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) |  |\n|  | 6 Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) | X |\n|  | 7 Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) | X |\n|  | 8 Non-guaranteed SOE debt |  |\n\n2. Debt coverage remains fairly comprehensive but does not include non-guaranteed SOE debt and the non-financial debts of other government entities.4 Benin received a high score for sectoral coverage on the IDA Debt Reporting heat map for 2022. Although public debt does not include non-guaranteed SOE debt, the authorities have published information on the outstanding stock of nonguaranteed SOE debt (comprising 13 SOEs), which stood at 1.9 percent of GDP at end-2021. They also included details on on-lending to SOEs in quarterly debt bulletins in 2021, as part of IDA’s Sustainable Development Finance Policy (SDFP) and most recent Development Policy Operations. Also, under the SDFP, the Debt Management Office and the Directorate in charge o","cbCaigPSfl0t81wR","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaigPSfl0t81wR","pdf",1208215,1,30,"English","en",105,"# Key risk ratings and overall assessment\n# Baseline performance and threshold breaches\n# Drivers of deterioration and shock absorption capacity\n# Stress tests and contingent liabilities\n# Debt coverage scope and data limitations","[{\"question\":\"What is Benin’s risk rating for external and overall debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Benin is assessed as having a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the May 2023 DSA.\"},{\"question\":\"Why does the debt service-to-revenue ratio breach the high-risk threshold in 2030?\",\"answer\":\"A one-off breach occurs in 2030 due to large Eurobond payments falling due.\"},{\"question\":\"Which factors have contributed to deterioration since the previous DSA?\",\"answer\":\"External debt indicators weakened as authorities substituted more costly domestic financing with external borrowing under tighter conditions in the regional security market, while the ability to absorb shocks remains limited.\"}]",1784488888,76,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"benin-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/benin-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-debt-distress-risk-assessment/111161/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is Benin’s risk rating for external and overall debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Benin is assessed as having a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the May 2023 DSA.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Why does the debt service-to-revenue ratio breach the high-risk threshold in 2030?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"A one-off breach occurs in 2030 due to large Eurobond payments falling due.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Which factors have contributed to deterioration since the previous DSA?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"External debt indicators weakened as authorities substituted more costly domestic financing with external borrowing under tighter conditions in the regional security market, while the ability to absorb shocks remains 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