[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111174-en":3,"doc-seo-111174-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111174,34359740700684,"Finn","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1f400023980c374ae676?_k=1777273430885731487",8,"Research & Report","Bangladesh - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate Risk","Bangladesh faces a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, with limited fiscal and macro space to absorb shocks. The assessment shifts from low risk in the June 2024 review to moderate largely due to substantial downward revisions to export data for FY23 and FY24 carried through the forecast period. Under the baseline, debt indicators stay below thresholds, but the present value of debt-to-exports and debt service-to-exports breach thresholds in a standard stress test. Medium-term debt dynamics support a declining public and publicly guaranteed external debt-to-GDP path from 2026, while domestic debt accumulation raises the domestic debt-to-revenue burden.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Sebastian Eckardt (IDA) , and Sanjaya Panth and Jarkko Turunen (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| BANGLADESH: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Moderate |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nBangladesh remains at a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks. The change of risk from low in the June 2024 assessment to moderate was largely attributed to a substantial downward revision of export data for FY23 and FY24, which was carried forward over the projection period. Bangladesh’s debtcarrying capacity remains assessed as medium, consistent with the previous debt sustainability analysis (DSA) . 1 While external and overall debt indicators remain below their respective thresholds under the baseline scenario, the present value of debt-to-exports and debt service-to-exports ratios persistently breach their thresholds under a standard stress test, due to the downward revision of export data. Favorable debt dynamics in the medium term are expected to keep the public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio on a declining path, and space to absorb shocks would improve to “some space” from 2026 onwards.  \nHowever, the PV of overall public debt is projected to steadily increase, in light of the domestic debt accumulation to meet the rising gross financing needs, leading to further increases in the already elevated domestic debt-to-revenue ratio. Risks are tilted to the downside and include amplified vulnerabilities in the banking sector, renewed foreign exchange (FX) pressures, persistent inflation, increasing interest burden, revenue mobilization constraints, especially in light of the underperformance of revenue observed in FY25, slow implementation of macro-critical structural reforms, domestic political uncertainties, escalating geopolitical tensions, and climate related events.  \n1 Bangladesh’s Composite Index is estimated at 2.83 and is based on IMF’s October 2025 WEO and World Bank’s 2024 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) .  \n1. Debt coverage used for the analysis appropriately captures Bangladesh’s debt vulnerabilities.3 The DSA covers the full stock of public debt issued by the central government, as well as debt issued by State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) that is guaranteed by the central government. Nonguaranteed SOE debt—comprising only domestic liabilities—is excluded, as it does not pose a fiscal risk based on information provided by the authorities. However, there are three SOEs that accumulated arrears to external suppliers of about 0.3 percent of GDP at end FY24 and these arrears have been included in the debt coverage.4 IMF financial support is included in the public debt, which is provided to the Bangladesh Bank (BB) and then on-lent to the central government. Local governments are not allowed to borrow and are excluded from the analysis. The authorities are working to standardize the reporting of SOE debt to cover non-guaranteed debt , although non-guaranteed external debt held by SOEs is zero. This DSA is prepared on a currency basis. The difference relative to the residency basis should not materially affect the assessment.  \n| 1 | Subsectors of the public sector | Sub-sectors covered |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n|  | Central government | X |\n| 2 | State and local government |  |\n| 3 | Other elements in the general government |  |\n| 4 | o/w: Social security fund |  |\n| 5 | o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) |  |\n| 6 | Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) | X |\n| 7 | Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) | X |\n| 8 | Non-guara","cbCaiaEjD2uIqF37","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiaEjD2uIqF37","pdf",826266,1,23,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment\n## External risk of debt distress\n## Overall risk of debt distress\n## Stress test results and judgment\n# Debt coverage and methodology\n## Public debt subsectors covered\n## Coverage of guarantees, SOEs, and debt shocks\n## Currency basis and exclusions\n# Debt outlook and vulnerabilities\n## Debt dynamics and ratios\n## Domestic debt accumulation and revenue pressures\n## Downside risks and macro vulnerabilities","[{\"question\":\"Why did Bangladesh’s debt distress risk change from low to moderate in the June 2024 vs latest assessment?\",\"answer\":\"The risk increase is mainly driven by a substantial downward revision of export data for FY23 and FY24, which is carried into the projection period.\"},{\"question\":\"Do debt indicators remain within thresholds under the baseline scenario?\",\"answer\":\"Under the baseline, external and overall debt indicators remain below their respective thresholds. However, the present value of debt-to-exports and debt service-to-exports breach thresholds under a standard stress test due to the revised export outlook.\"},{\"question\":\"What key factors tilt risks to the downside despite improving space from 2026?\",\"answer\":\"Risks include vulnerabilities in the banking sector, renewed foreign exchange pressures, persistent inflation, rising interest burden, revenue mobilization constraints, slow structural reform implementation, domestic political uncertainties, escalating geopolitical tensions, and climate-related events.\"}]",1784488955,58,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"bangladesh-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/bangladesh-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-moderate-risk/111174/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-20","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"Why did Bangladesh’s debt distress risk change from low to moderate in the June 2024 vs latest assessment?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"The risk increase is mainly driven by a substantial downward revision of export data for FY23 and FY24, which is carried into the projection period.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Do debt indicators remain within thresholds under the baseline scenario?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"Under the baseline, external and overall debt indicators remain below their respective thresholds. However, the present value of debt-to-exports and debt service-to-exports breach thresholds under a standard stress test due to the revised export outlook.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What key factors tilt risks to the downside despite improving space from 2026?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"Risks include vulnerabilities in the banking sector, renewed foreign exchange pressures, persistent inflation, rising interest burden, revenue mobilization constraints, slow structural reform implementation, domestic political uncertainties, escalating geopolitical tensions, and climate-related events.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]