[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110802-en":3,"doc-seo-110802-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":91},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110802,1374391974468,"Eden","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_29158cc5080c5b710cf443261637dec0",8,"Research & Report","Bangladesh - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Low risk of debt distress","Bangladesh is assessed as facing a low risk of external and overall debt distress. Under baseline and stress tests, external and domestic debt indicators stay below relevant thresholds, even with a reduced debt-carrying capacity linked mainly to a lower CPIA score in 2020. Medium-term growth is projected to be slower than in the previous DSA due to the pandemic, lockdowns, and delayed vaccine rollout, while medium-term debt dynamics keep PPG external debt/GDP declining and overall public debt/GDP stabilizing.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nMarcello Estevão and Zoubida Allaoua (IDA) , Anne-Marie Gulde-Wolf and Kevin Fletcher (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| BANGLADESH: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Low |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Tool not applicable |\n| Application of judgement | No |\n\nBangladesh remains at a low risk of external and overall debt distress. External and domestic debt indicators are below their respective thresholds under the baseline and stress test scenarios, despite a lower debt-carrying capacity threshold, due to a debt carrying capacity downgrade from strong to medium, driven mostly by a lower CPIA score in 2020. Growth is projected to be slower than estimated in the previous DSA over the medium-term, reflecting the prolonged nature of the pandemic, nation-wide lockdowns, and slower-than-expected roll out of vaccines, and converges to the previous DSA growth rates over long run. Favorable debt dynamics in the medium term keep the PPG external debt-to-GDP ratio on a declining path , and the overall public debt-to-GDP ratio stabilizes, although at a higher level than in the previous DSA. Risks are on the downside and include pandemic-related uncertainties, rising commodity prices, higher domestic interest rates, elevated NPLs, prospective losses from natural disasters. Under these circumstances, financing the much-needed climate adaptive expenditure, as laid out in the 8th five year plan (FYP) and Delta Plan, will be challenging unless financed concessionally or through non-debt creating flows (foreign direct investment) . Improving the investment climate to attract FDI and raising the revenue-to-GDP ratio to boost social spending while limiting fiscal risks remain top priorities.  \n1. Total public debt in Bangladesh stood at about US$147.8 billion in FY21, around 41.4 percent of GDP.1 The majority of public debt over the last decade is domestic and denominated in local currency. In FY21, domestic debt was 58 percent of the total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt stock.  \n2. About half of the outstanding   \ndomestic debt is composed of National ~~ ~~(inOlpedrceRantt)e~~ ~~5-ye1a1r28~~ ~~3-month11~~ ~~04~~ ~~Family11.52~~ ~~Pension1e1rs'76 Saving Certificates (NSCs) . NSCs stifle the Less than or equal to Tk 1.5 million 11.28 11.04 11.52 11.76  \nMore than Tk 1.5 and up to or equal Tk 3 million 10.30 10.00 10.50 10.75  \ndevelopment of a domestic bond market as More thanTk 3 million 9.30 9.00 9.50 9.75  \nthey provide a yield of around 9–11 percent, whereas government bonds of similar maturities provide a yield between 5 and 6 percent.2 The authorities lowered the interest rates of new issuances of NSCs in September 2021, linking rates to investment brackets to disincentivize investments from high income individuals. However, NSC rates still remain well above market rates. Continued reforms to align NSC interest rates to market-determined rates, together with phasing out the cap on lending rates and floor on deposit rates, would help debt dynamics by lowering the cost of domestic borrowing, improving monetary policy transmission and deepening domestic debt markets. 3  \n3. A shariah-compliant investment instrument, ‘Ijarah Sukuk’, was launched for the first time in December 2020. A second tranche of this instrument, totaling Tk. 40 billion, was issued in June 2021. The oversubscription of the second issuance (Tk 327 billion) points to a huge demand for the instrument. The authorities are planning to continue issuing these Sukuk bonds.  \n2  \n3  \n4. External PPG debt stood at US$62 billion in FY21, around 17.5 percent of GDP.4 External PPG debt is predominantly owed to multilateral and bilateral creditors, 53.2 and 30.3 percent of outstanding external PPG debt respec","cbCairJA7AAPvX4W","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCairJA7AAPvX4W","pdf",2892311,1,17,"English","en",105,"# Risk of debt distress\n## External and overall risk assessment\n## Debt indicators and thresholds\n# Debt dynamics and macroeconomic assumptions\n## Growth and inflation outlook\n## Domestic and external debt structure\n# Policy priorities and financing constraints\n## Climate expenditure financing\n## Attracting FDI and revenue mobilization\n## Domestic borrowing cost and market deepening","[{\"question\":\"What is Bangladesh’s assessed risk of debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Bangladesh is assessed as having a low risk of both external and overall debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Why was the debt-carrying capacity threshold downgraded?\",\"answer\":\"The downgrade from strong to medium is driven mostly by a lower CPIA score in 2020.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors keep external and overall debt indicators below thresholds?\",\"answer\":\"External and domestic debt indicators remain below their thresholds under baseline and stress tests, supported by favorable medium-term debt dynamics despite slower projected growth.\"}]",1784487164,43,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":86,"head_meta":88,"extra_data":90,"updated_unix":27},"bangladesh-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-risk-of-debt-distress","",{"@graph":35,"@context":85},[36,53,68],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/bangladesh-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-risk-of-debt-distress/110802/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":62,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":63,"interactionStatistic":64},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-22","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":65,"interactionType":66,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":67},"ViewAction",{"@type":69,"mainEntity":70},"FAQPage",[71,77,81],{"name":72,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":74},"What is Bangladesh’s assessed risk of debt distress?","Question",{"text":75,"@type":76},"Bangladesh is assessed as having a low risk of both external and overall debt distress.","Answer",{"name":78,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":79},"Why was the debt-carrying capacity threshold downgraded?",{"text":80,"@type":76},"The downgrade from strong to medium is driven mostly by a lower CPIA score in 2020.",{"name":82,"@type":73,"acceptedAnswer":83},"What factors keep external and overall debt indicators below thresholds?",{"text":84,"@type":76},"External and domestic debt indicators remain below their thresholds under baseline and stress tests, supported by favorable medium-term debt dynamics despite slower projected growth.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":87,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":89,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":92},[93,97,101,105,110,115,120,123,128,131,135],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":94,"show_sort_weight":95,"slug":96},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":102,"show_sort_weight":103,"slug":104},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":106,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":107,"show_sort_weight":108,"slug":109},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":111,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":112,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":116,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":117,"show_sort_weight":118,"slug":119},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":121,"slug":122},30,"research-report",{"id":124,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":125,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":127},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":126,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":129,"show_sort_weight":126,"slug":130},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":132,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":132,"slug":134},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":106,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]