[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-110389-en":3,"doc-seo-110389-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},110389,137441390410,"Hazel","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/2000252f4ab5702993?_k=1776741390130283984",8,"Research & Report","Bangladesh - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Low Risk of Debt Distress","Bangladesh shows low risk of both external and overall debt distress under the joint World Bank–IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis. Baseline external and overall debt indicators remain below relevant thresholds, with only one short-duration breach in a standard stress test that is discounted using judgment. Growth is projected to slow in FY23 but remain supportive in the medium to long term, helped by external financing and reforms under the IMF program and partners including the World Bank. Key downside risks include spillovers from the war in Ukraine, higher commodity prices, export-demand slowdown, elevated NPLs, and potential losses from natural disasters.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nMathew Verghis and Marcello Estevão (IDA) and Anne-Marie Gulde-Wolf and Boileau Yeyinou Loko (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  \n\n| BANGLADESH: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Low |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Tool not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes |\n\nBangladesh remains at a low risk of external and overall debt distress. Bangladesh’s debt-carrying capacity is unchanged from the previous debt sustainability analysis (DSA) .1 External and overall debt indicators are below their respective thresholds under the baseline. Under a standard stress test, one threshold of external debt sustainability indicator is breached. This short duration breach of low magnitude is discounted via judgement. Growth is projected to be slower in FY23, compared to the previous DSA projection, but is expected to exceed the previous growth path in the medium to long term, supported by additional external financing and accelerated reform agenda under the IMF program and programs by development partners, including the World Bank. Despite higher external borrowing in the near-term, favorable debt dynamics in the medium term keep the public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debtto-GDP ratio on a declining path, and the overall public debt-to-GDP ratio stabilizes at a similar level, compared to the previous DSA. Risks are tilted to the downside and include intensifying spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rising commodity prices, slowdown in major export destinations, elevated NPLs, and prospective losses from natural disasters.  \n1 Bangladesh’s Composite Index is estimated at 2.88 and is based on October 2022 WEO update and 2021 WB CPIA. The debt carrying capacity remains medium.  \n1. Total public and publicly guaranteed debt in Bangladesh stood at about US$166.1 billion in FY22, around 39 percent of GDP (Text Table 1 and Text Chart 1) .2 The majority of public debt over the last decade is domestic and denominated in local currency. In FY22, domestic debt was about 56.5 percent of PPG debt stock.3 Domestic debt service payments amounted to US$31 .9 billion in FY22 (7 .5 percent of GDP) . External debt service payments in FY22 comprised the payments to multilateral creditor of US$ 1.5 billion (0 .4 percent of GDP) and bilateral creditor of US$ 0.6 billion (around 0.1 percent of GDP) . Of which, debt service payments to Paris Club and non-Paris Club creditors amounted to US$0 .26 billion and US$0 .28 billion, respectively.  \n\n|  |  |\n| --- | --- |\n\n2 Fiscal year in Bangladesh starts in July and ends in June.  \n3 These statistics reflect the rebased national accounts (base year 2015/16) . In November 2021, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) released a rebased series of national accounts (base year 2015/16) . The rebasing has led to an increase in GDP levels and a slight decline in GDP growth rates, partly reflecting wider coverage of economic activities and methodological changes. See Annex IV of the staff report for a request for the extended credit facility (ECF), extended fund facility (EFF), and resilience and sustainability facility (RSF) arrangements.  \n|  | Debt Stock (end of period) |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  | (In million of US$) | (Percent total debt) | (Percent GDP) |\n| Total | 166,127 | 100.0 | 39.0 |\n| External | 72,288 | 43.5 | 17.0 |\n| Public external | 65,482 | 39.4 | 15.4 |\n| Medium-to-long term | 63,386 | 38.2 | 14.9 |\n| Multilateral creditors2 | 34,904 | 21.0 | 8.2 |\n| IMF | 984 | 0.6 | 0.2 |\n| World Bank | 18,164 | 10.9 | 4.3 |\n| ADB | 13,277 | 8.0 | 3.1 |\n| Other Multilaterals | 2,479 | 1.5 | 0.6 |\n| o/w: AIIB | 808 | 0.5 | 0.2 |\n| o/w: IFAD | 503 | 0.3 | 0.1 |\n| Bilateral creditors | 21,675 | 13.0 | 5.1 |\n| Paris Club | 15,514 ","cbCaitGwZKS3EalW","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaitGwZKS3EalW","pdf",1455455,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment\n## External debt distress risk\n## Overall debt distress risk\n# Methodology and assumptions\n## Judgment and stress test interpretation\n## Debt-carrying capacity\n# Debt composition and indicators\n## Debt stock and servicing overview\n## Creditor breakdown (multilateral and bilateral)\n## Domestic debt and contingencies","[{\"question\":\"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Bangladesh in this DSA?\",\"answer\":\"The overall risk of debt distress is rated low, and the same applies to external debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Which part of the stress test results is discounted, and why?\",\"answer\":\"One external debt sustainability threshold is breached under a standard stress test, but the breach is short duration and of low magnitude, so it is discounted via judgment.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors are cited as potential downside risks to debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Risks are tilted to the downside, including spillovers from the Ukraine war, rising commodity prices, slower growth in major export markets, elevated NPLs, and potential losses from natural disasters.\"}]",1784485197,48,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"bangladesh-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-risk-of-debt-distress","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/bangladesh-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-risk-of-debt-distress/110389/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is the overall risk of debt distress for Bangladesh in this DSA?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The overall risk of debt distress is rated low, and the same applies to external debt distress.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Which part of the stress test results is discounted, and why?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"One external debt sustainability threshold is breached under a standard stress test, but the breach is short duration and of low magnitude, so it is discounted via judgment.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What factors are cited as potential downside risks to debt sustainability?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Risks are tilted to the downside, including spillovers from the Ukraine war, rising commodity prices, slower growth in major export markets, elevated NPLs, and potential losses from natural 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